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Target could face $1.1 billion in fines: Analyst

The bad news keeps coming for Target.

Jefferies analyst Daniel Binder said on Thursday that the retailer could face between $400 million and $1.1 billion in fines from the data breach that impacted up to 110 million shoppers, which "could be significant and higher than we first thought."

(Read more: MasterCard exec: Time to put chips in cards)

That estimate does not incorporate lost sales or customer goodwill from the breach. It also doesn't account for potential negative side effects from signing up fewer loyalty card members, or lower usage from existing cardholders.

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As a result, Binder lowered estimates for the retailer, under the assumption it will not be able to achieve the $4 billion buyback that was previously discussed. He now expects the retailer to post full-year earnings of $4.29 for fiscal 2015, down from $4.41.

(Read more: Up to 1.1M cards compromised: Neiman Marcus)

"Although the Street is likely to look at the resulting charges from the credit card data breach as one-time in nature, it could be a sizeable hit to shareholder equity. This potential cash drain combined with softer earnings results (and possibly more softness this year) could definitely impact the company's ability to achieve the $4 billion in share buyback that has been previously discussed," Binder wrote.

Target's stock was slightly lower in late trading on Thursday, after hitting a 52-week low of $56.73 on Wednesday.

Shares of the low-price retailer took a beating last week when Cowen analyst Faye Landes lowered her price target for the retailer to $47 from $66, saying she expects the company to indefinitely suspend its buyback.

After news of the breach, Target revised its forecast for fourth-quarter earnings, saying it expects earnings per share of $1.20 to $1.30, compared with prior guidance of $1.50 to $1.60. Thomson Reuters estimates show the retailer is expected to earn 81 cents a share in the quarter, compared with $1.25 before news of the breach hit.

—By CNBC's Krystina Gustafson. Follow her on Twitter @KrystinaGustafs.

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