Bank Indonesia is juggling several policy priorities this year. Its five rate rises since the middle of 2013 have put a floor under the rupiah currency, capping losses against the dollar at 21 percent last year, and halted foreigners from fleeing the country's high-yielding debt.
Foreigners own more than 30 percent, or about $27 billion, of outstanding government bonds.
But when adjusted for inflation, interest rates are negative. Analysts say real yields have to be positive, both to attract foreign investment and to curtail the rapid consumption that is causing imports to balloon. Stability in the rupiah, which is traditionally prone to wild swings, is vital to the economy.
But signs of moderating demand are already starting to trickle down through the economy, with industries ranging from hotels, restaurants, airlines and construction companies adjusting their growth targets.
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"Although economic growth rebounded in Q4 2013, it is not likely to be the pivotal point as we believe the impact of monetary tightening has yet to fully bloom," said Mandiri Sekuritas economist Aldian Taloputra, who forecasts 2014 GDP growth to slip to 5.6 percent, down from 5.78 percent last year and the lowest since 2009.
Political uncertainty is also a concern with many foreign investors waiting on the sidelines until a new president is elected later this year.
One of the biggest unknown factors that could cloud Indonesia's economic outlook this year is the ongoing mining crisis.
Confusion over the new rules have caused monthly ore and concentrate shipments worth around $500 million a month to grind to a halt.
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo warned days before the ban took effect that the current account deficit could stay above 3 percent of GDP if the new law is not managed carefully.
"The most worrying is if the mining firms do not make any shipments at all, there will be no profits (and) GDP will also slow down," said David Sumual, an economist at PT Bank Central Asia, who estimates the ban could widen the current account deficit by as much as 0.6 percent.
(Read more: Could the minerals ban worsen Indonesia's deficit?)
The social and political costs of the ban could already be mounting.
Ibris Nickel, a unit of Singapore-based Ibris Group, is no longer able to find work for half of its 1,200 work force - 80 percent of whom are from three remote villages in Southeast Sulawesi.
"This is going to have a very big impact on these remote areas that depend on the mines and where contributions from the government are fairly limited," said Agus Suhartono, the company's chief operating officer.
"Suddenly there is no revenue coming in. How are they going to alter their lives? I really don't know that answer."