GO
Loading...

These charts show that BlackBerry will keep soaring

Shares of troubled smartphone BlackBerry have recovered smartly of late, rising from a low of $5.44 in December to nearly $11. And Carter Worth, chief market technician at Sterne Agee, says that move actually foretells more good things to come.

"This is a nice setup," Worth said Friday on CNBC's "Options Action." "The stock has doubled from 5 to 10—that's the first circumstance. And the second is that its smoothing mechanism is now flat, it's no longer declining."

Worth said that when a troubled stock doubles and its 150-day moving average stops declining and becomes flat, that shows the stock is poised to rise much higher still.

To give flesh to his point, Worth furnished the charts of Hewlett-Packard, Best Buy, Netflix and Green Mountain Coffee—showing what shares of each looked like after they had doubled off of their low and flattened their 150-day moving average.

From November 2012 to March 2013, shares of Hewlett-Packard doubled from $10 to $20.


And, to Worth's point, the move didn't end there. From March 2013 to March 2014, (HPQ) rose by another $10, to touch $30 in February.

Worth's second example, Best Buy, similarly doubled in a few months' time.


The electronics retailer consequently rose to $45, for more than another double.

The third example, Netflix, plunged to 50 before doubling.


Since then, Netflix has risen all the way to $450.

Finally, Worth presented a chart of Green Mountain Coffee, which was left for dead before it rose from $20 to $40.


Today, Green Mountain is trading well above $100.

Of course, these stocks have more in common than just the look of their charts. All of these companies were left for dead, and shareholders who felt abject fear fled as quickly as possible.

"In all of these stocks, people literally capitulated," Worth told CNBC.com on Monday. "They said 'Sell at any price.' The commonality is not the big move off of a low—it is that there was a low, and that it came as a result of capitulatory-type selling that led to a long, persistent, unrelenting downtrend."

Worth does not recommend stocks that are simply beaten-down, such as Weight Watchers. But the doubling, and the flattening, of the moving average indicates that the selling has ended and the fundamentals have turned around.

"By the time you've doubled, enough time has healed that smoothing mechanism," Worth said. "That means you've gone two to three quarter without any ... new bad news, so presumptively you've started to work through your problems."

Worth says BlackBerry looks a lot like these other stocks did when they finally became safe to buy.

From here, Worth expects BlackBerry shares to rise another 50 percent.

"This throws to $15 by my work," the technician said. "Buy."


—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg. Follow him on Twitter @CNBCAlex.

Follow the show on Twitter: @CNBCOptions.

Contact Options Action

  • Showtimes

    Fridays, 5:30p ET
    Saturday, 6a ET
    Sunday, 6a ET
  • Melissa Lee is the host of CNBC's “Fast Money” and “Options Action.”

Latest Video

Options Action Daily Reports

Sponsored Related Links

More on thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade

  • Make sure you’re always keeping up with the market with up-to-the-minute news and breaking stories. Move on possible breakout stocks and options with potential opportunity. Plus, get in-depth analysis on futures and forex in one seamless, integrated experience. Join TD Ameritrade and trade commission-free for 60 days + get up to $600 cash.

You Make the Call

  • Mike Khouw, Options Action trader, shares his view on News Corp stock on the heels of testimony from Rupert Murdoch before British Parliament.

  • Do you have a question for the Options Action team? Options Action selects a viewer's question and gives the answer on the show's Make The Call Web Extra video.