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FACTBOX: How Europe's previous bank test scenarios stacked up

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The "stress test" scenarios to be unveiled by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on Tuesday mark the third time Europe has set the likely and worst-case scenarios its biggest banks should prepare themselves for. The projections laid down in 2010 stood the test of time well, with just one country of the European Union's 27 members at that time - Greece - posting actual economic growth that was worse than the two-year cumulative worst-case scenario applied by the stress tests. Eight countries recorded worse unemployment than predicted in that year's stress test, though. The 2011 stress test, designed at the height of the euro zone crisis, had a far greater margin of error. The actual 2012 economic growth of 18 EU countries was worse than the "adverse case" laid down for that year in the 2011 test, and unemployment figures were worse than the adverse case for eight countries. A full breakdown of the key metrics of the 2010 and 2011 stress tests, on a country-by-country basis, is below. The source for the predictions is EBA publications, while actual outcomes are sourced from Eurostat.

2010 stress test

2010 GDP

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 1.1 -0.1 1.8 NO Belgium 0.6 -0.3 2.3 NO Cyprus 0.1 -0.7 1.3 NO Finland 0.9 -0.1 3.4 NO France 1.2 0.7 1.7 NO Germany 1.2 0.2 4 NO Greece -4.1 -4.6 -4.9 YES Ireland -1.4 -2.1 -1.1 NO Italy 0.7 -0.3 1.7 NO Luxembourg 1.1 -0.1 3.1 NO Malta 0.7 -0.8 4.1 NO Netherlands 0.9 0 1.5 NO Portugal 0.5 -0.3 1.9 NO Slovakia 1.9 0.8 4.4 NO Slovenia 1.3 0.7 1.3 NO Spain -0.6 -1.4 -0.2 NO Euro area 0.7 -0.2 2 NO Bulgaria 0.4 -0.7 0.4 NO Czech 1.4 0.9 2.5 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.5 0.8 1.4 NO Estonia 1 -0.1 2.6 NO Hungary 0.9 -0.2 1.1 NO Latvia -3.3 -4.2 -1.3 NO Lithuania 0.5 -0.9 1.6 NO Poland 2.9 2.1 3.9 NO Romania 0 -1.8 -1.1 NO Sweden 1.4 0.9 6.6 NO UK 0.6 -0.2 1.7 NO 2010 Unemployment

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 6 6.1 4.4 NO Belgium 9.9 9.1 8.3 NO Cyprus 6.6 6.7 6.3 NO Finland 10.2 10.4 8.4 NO France 10.2 10.2 9.3 NO Germany 9.2 9.2 7.1 NO Greece 11.7 11.8 12.6 YES Ireland 14 14.1 13.9 NO Italy 8.7 8.8 8.4 NO Luxembourg 7.3 7.3 4.6 NO Malta 7.4 7.6 6.9 NO Netherlands 5.4 5.5 4.5 NO Portugal 11.1 11.3 12 YES Slovakia 12.8 12.9 14.5 YES Slovenia 8.3 8.5 7.3 NO Spain 20 20.3 20.1 NO Euro area 10.7 10.8 10.1 NO Bulgaria 8.8 9.2 10.3 YES Czech 8.1 8.6 7.3 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.8 6 7.5 YES Estonia 16 16.4 16.7 YES Hungary 11.8 12.6 11.2 NO Latvia 20.4 20.7 19.5 NO Lithuania 17.1 17.6 17.8 YES Poland 10.4 10.7 9.7 NO Romania 8.1 8.5 7.3 NO Sweden 10.2 10.2 8.6 NO UK 8.7 9.1 7.8 NO 2011 GDP

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded

Austria 1.5 -1.2 2.8 NO Belgium 1.5 -0.6 1.8 NO Cyprus 1.3 -0.1 0.4 NO Finland 1.6 -0.6 2.8 NO France 1.5 -0.1 2 NO Germany 1.7 -0.6 3.3 NO Greece -2.6 -4.3 -7.1 YES Ireland 2.6 1 2.2 NO Italy 1.4 -0.3 0.4 NO Luxembourg 1.8 -0.8 1.9 NO Malta 1.6 -1.2 1.6 NO Netherlands 1.6 -1 0.9 NO Portugal 0.2 -2.3 -1.3 NO Slovakia 2.6 -0.6 3 NO Slovenia 2 0.6 0.7 NO Spain 1 -1.2 0.1 NO Bulgaria 4 2.8 1.8 NO Czech 1.8 0.6 1.8 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.8 0.2 1.1 NO Estonia 4 3 9.6 NO Hungary 3.2 1.6 1.6 NO Latvia 3.9 2.5 5.3 NO Lithuania 3.1 2.4 6 NO Poland 2.4 0.5 4.5 NO Romania 3.6 2.1 2.3 NO Sweden 2.1 0.9 2.9 NO UK 1.9 0.1 1.1 NO 2011 Unemployment

Scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 5.7 6.1 4.2 NO Belgium 10.3 11.1 7.2 NO Cyprus 6.7 7.3 7.9 YES Finland 9.9 11.4 7.8 NO France 10 10.5 9.2 NO Germany 9.3 9.7 5.9 NO Greece 14.1 14.8 17.7 YES Ireland 13.2 13.7 14.7 YES Italy 8.7 9.3 8.4 NO Luxembourg 7.7 7.7 4.8 NO Malta 7.3 8.2 6.5 NO Netherlands 6 7 4.4 NO Portugal 11.9 12.8 12.9 YES Slovakia 12.6 13.2 13.7 YES Slovenia 8.5 9.1 8.2 NO Spain 20.5 21.6 21.7 YES Bulgaria 8 8.4 11.3 YES Czech 8.5 9.6 6.7 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.6 6.3 7.6 YES Estonia 14.5 14.8 12.3 NO Hungary 11.9 13.2 10.9 NO Latvia 18.2 18.8 16.2 NO Lithuania 15.9 16.3 15.4 NO Poland 11.5 12.2 9.7 NO Romania 8.8 9.2 7.4 NO Sweden 10.1 10.3 7.8 NO UK 8 8.8 8 NO

2011 stress test

2011 GDP

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 1.7 -0.7 2.8 NO Belgium 1.8 0 1.8 NO Cyprus 1.5 -0.6 0.4 NO Finland 2.9 -0.5 2.8 NO France 1.6 0.4 2 NO Germany 2.2 -0.9 3.3 NO Greece -3 -4 -7.1 YES Ireland 0.9 -1.6 2.2 NO Italy 1.1 0.1 0.4 NO Luxembourg 2.8 0.2 1.9 NO Malta 2 -3.1 1.6 NO Netherlands 1.5 -0.7 0.9 NO Portugal -1 -3 -1.3 NO Slovakia 3 0.4 3 NO Slovenia 1.9 0.8 0.7 YES Spain 0.7 -1 0.1 NO Bulgaria 2.6 1.1 1.8 NO Czech 2.3 -0.3 1.8 NO

Republic

Denmark 1.9 0.4 1.1 NO Estonia 4.4 1.8 9.6 NO Hungary 2.8 1.9 1.6 YES Latvia 3.3 1.6 5.3 NO Lithuania 2.8 0.8 6 NO Poland 3.9 3 4.5 NO Romania 1.5 0 2.3 NO Sweden 3.3 0.4 2.9 NO UK 2.2 -0.7 1.1 NO 2011 Unemployment

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 4.2 4.5 4.2 NO Belgium 8.8 9 7.2 NO Cyprus 6.6 6.9 7.9 YES Finland 7.8 8.3 7.8 NO France 9.5 9.6 9.2 NO Germany 6.7 6.8 5.9 NO Greece 15 15.2 17.7 YES Ireland 13.4 14.9 14.7 NO Italy 8.3 8.6 8.4 NO Luxembourg 5.6 5.6 4.8 NO Malta 6.6 7.4 6.5 NO Netherlands 4.4 4.9 4.4 NO Portugal 11.1 11.6 12.9 YES Slovakia 14.2 14.4 13.7 NO Slovenia 7.2 7.7 8.2 YES Spain 20.2 21.3 21.7 YES Bulgaria 9.1 9.2 11.3 YES Czech 7 7.8 6.7 NO

Republic

Denmark 6.3 7.2 7.6 YES Estonia 1.1 15.4 12.3 NO Hungary 11 11.1 10.9 NO Latvia 17.7 18.3 16.2 NO Lithuania 16.9 17.3 15.4 NO Poland 9.2 9.4 9.7 YES Romania 7.4 7.5 7.4 NO Sweden 8 8.8 7.8 NO UK 7.9 9 8 NO 2012 GDP

scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 2.1 -0.6 0.9 NO Belgium 2 -0.2 -0.1 NO Cyprus 2.2 0.6 -2.4 YES Finland 2.3 0.6 -1 YES France 1.8 0.2 0 YES Germany 2 0.6 0.7 NO Greece 11 -1.2 -7 YES Ireland 1.9 0.3 0.2 YES Italy 1.4 -1 -2.4 YES Luxembourg 3.2 0.9 -0.2 YES Malta 2.2 0.5 0.6 NO Netherlands 1.7 -0.8 -1.2 YES Portugal 0.8 -2.6 -3.2 YES Slovakia 3.9 1.3 1.8 NO Slovenia 2.6 1 -2.5 YES Spain 1.7 -1.1 -1.6 YES Bulgaria 3.8 1.5 0.6 YES Czech 3.1 1.5 -1 YES

Republic

Denmark 1.8 -0.2 -0.4 YES Estonia 3.5 -0.9 3.9 NO Hungary 3.2 1.2 -1.7 YES Latvia 4 0.5 5.2 NO Lithuania 3.2 -1.4 3.7 NO Poland 4.2 2.6 2 YES Romania 3.8 2.1 0.6 YES Sweden 2.3 -1.2 0.9 NO UK 2.5 0.9 0.3 YES

2012 Unemployment scenario

Benchmark Adverse Actual Adverse

exceeded?

Austria 4 4.8 4.3 NO Belgium 8.7 9.8 7.6 NO Cyprus 5.9 7.1 11.9 YES Finland 7.2 8.1 7.7 NO France 9.2 9.8 9.8 NO Germany 6.3 6.9 5.5 NO Greece 15.2 16.3 24.3 YES Ireland 12.7 15.8 14.7 NO Italy 8.2 9.2 10.7 YES Luxembourg 5.6 5.7 5.1 NO Malta 6.5 8.8 6.4 NO Netherlands 4.3 5.9 5.3 NO Portugal 11.2 12.9 15.9 YES Slovakia 13.4 14.3 14 NO Slovenia 6.6 7.7 8.9 YES Spain 19.2 22.4 25 YES Bulgaria 8 8.9 12.3 YES Czech 6.7 8.4 7 NO

Republic

Denmark 5.8 8.3 7.5 NO Estonia 13.6 15 10 NO Hungary 10.3 10.9 10.9 NO Latvia 16.2 18.8 15 NO Lithuania 15.1 17.2 13.4 NO Poland 8.5 9.8 10.1 YES Romania 7 7.4 7 NO Sweden 7.5 10.1 8 NO UK 7.8 10.6 7.9 NO

(Reporting by Laura Noonan; Editing by Mark Potter)