-- Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The opinions expressed are his own --
By Neal Kimberley
LONDON, May 19 (Reuters)- The Australian dollar may have some room to fall against the Japanese yen, with a test of the pair's 100-day moving average, currently 93.30 yen, a possible target.
The Aussie/yen cross has been tracking the top of its daily ichimoku cloud for a few days without actually closing inside it. A close inside the cloud might be seen by some technicians as supporting a further slide in the pair.
One argument would be for Aussie/yen to move from the top of its daily ichimoku cloud, presently 94.75 yen, to the base, now at 92.35 yen, but with the 100-day moving average line in between, 93.30 might be a more realistic technical objective.
Of course, running short of Aussie versus the yen comes at a cost - Australia's benchmark interest rate stands 2.5 percent while Japan's remains near zero, with other Bank of Japan monetary easing policies also in place.
Any trader going short Aussie dollar versus the yen will have to fund it day-to-day by incurring a charge of roughly 0.7 pips or about five pips for a week.
Given the cost of carry, it is helpful to have a macro-economic argument that supports the technical argument for selling the Aussie versus the yen.
The Australian central bank said on May 9 that the record low interest rate would be needed for some time, highlighting spare capacity in the economy, tighter fiscal policy and a sharp decline in investment in the important mining sector.
Iron ore prices at their lowest since September 2012 will not encourage investment in Australian mining given that iron ore is the country's biggest export earner.,
Meanwhile, the BOJ seems set to maintain its positive view of the Japanese economy when it ends its two-day rate review on Wednesday, suggesting no need for any immediate expansion of monetary stimulus.
All this may be enough to prompt investors to push the Aussie lower against the yen.
(Editing by Catherine Evans)