Wieseman, though, thinks the Fed is wrong, primarily in terms of how much slack, or unused capacity, it sees in the labor market. That's critical, because if Wieseman is correct that the economy is closer to full employment than the Fed thinks, that would put more pressure on wages and prices sooner than the FOMC anticipates.
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If the economy continues apace and creates about 200,000 jobs per month, the unemployment rate would fell below 6 percent by the end of the year, he estimates.
"This would put the labor market, by our estimation, close to sustainable full employment at the start of 2015," he said. "If so, there may be a risk of a more notable inflation pickup next year if capacity constraints indeed start to appear while the Fed is slow to acknowledge and respond to them, believing that a substantial margin of slack still exists."
Rosenberg thinks the Fed is looking at the wrong indicators.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, on which the Fed places great emphasis, "is the queen of all lagging indicators and ... affords the central bank considerable cover" to keep rates low, he said.
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"The issue here may be one of causation—many think we can't have inflation without wages, but perhaps it is inflation that leads the bargaining process as opposed to the other way around," Rosenberg said.
With wages flat, prices rising and the Fed staying put, consumers could be in for a long summer.
Some of the price increases are staggering.
Compared year over year, ground beef is up 16.5 percent, bacon has risen 16.4 percent and eggs have spiked 10.5 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oranges have soared 28.5 percent, grapes 24.8 percent and even wine is up 5.8 percent. Of the 75 price points the BLS follows, 52 have risen over the past 12 months.
Any good news? Well, coffee and sugar are cheaper, and potato chips have plunged 8.1 percent.
As Rosenberg stated: "I keep hearing from media types and market pundits (not to mention central bankers) that deflation remains a primary risk. I used to be of that view, but then I started to pay attention to prices at the mall and the monthly bills my family pays."