The S&P 500 could rise as much as 4 percent from current levels but ultimately finish 2014 just about where it started, David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, predicted Friday on CNBC.
When the Federal Reserve starts to increase interest rates, which could happen before the end of the year, "I do think there's a correction waiting for us out there," Joy said in a "Squawk Box" interview.
"It doesn't have to be that severe," he continued, "maybe somewhere between 5 percent and 10 percent ... in the fourth quarter or so." That won't be the end of the bull market, though, he added.
Stocks continued to power ahead Thursday, despite the government's first-quarter GDP revision showing economic activity actually shrank 1 percent. The first estimate saw meager growth. The S&P 500 rose to another all-time high and the Dow Jones industrial average came within 17 points from its record close.
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"Investors are pretty comfortable with the idea that the first quarter was a total aberration given the weather," Joy contended. "There's a general expectation that the economy is growing at an underlying pace close to 3 percent in the second quarter, [perhaps] close to 4 percent."
More recent economic numbers seem to point to that scenario and stocks are drifting higher as a result, Joy said, maybe as high as the 2,000 on the S&P. But he does not expect that to last as the year progresses, predicting the S&P would end at 1,850—just about where it ended last year's 30 percent run.