"The fundamental flaw is that [a lifting of the export ban] assumes there is no response from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries," said Jeff Peck, a partner at Peck Madigan & Jones, which is spearheading an effort by refiners to push back against an end to the export ban.
"History suggests that Saudis will not sit on their hands—if there is an increase in supply, they will decrease theirs," said Peck. "That means the prices of gas will not go down as advocates suggest."
The anti-export lobbying effort, comprising an ad-hoc group of refiners that include PBF Energy, Monroe Energy and Philadelphia Energy Services, is called Consumers and Refiners United for Domestic Energy (CRUDE).
"We are on the same side of consumers, because prices will go up," Peck said. "It defies common sense that the Saudis will sit there and do nothing" if the U.S. pumps world markets with its oil.
Read MoreOil will stay above $100, say big oil investors
Still, some say lifting the export moratorium and shipping crude abroad is more of a necessity than a luxury. In an exhaustive study of the U.S. shale boom last month, RBC Capital Markets said the U.S. will be glutted with an oversupply of shale-derived oil within the next few years—and will need to send at least some of it overseas.
"The most efficient way to alleviate a glut of U.S. onshore crude is to allow crude exports," the bank wrote. "We think that either U.S. oil production growth will need to begin slowing down in late 2015, or the U.S. will need to have light oil exports to keep the refining system from being overwhelmed in 2016."
—By CNBC's Javier David.