The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University has also said that although during May through to mid-June conditions were near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, the necessary changes in the atmosphere had yet to occur.
Traders are still considering what this actually means for the weather later in the year, but they are also likely to become more cautious as the gains over the past six months in some commodities, such as cocoa, have been driven by the El Niño outlook.
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Another weather event closely linked to El Niño which will be crucial to several commodities is the Indian monsoon.
El Niño tends to lead to a weaker monsoon, and accordingly India's Meteorological Department has predicted below average rainfall.
But a closer look at the data shows that the two weather events may not necessarily be so closely correlated.
Read More The El Niño effect: What it means for commodities
In the last decade when El Niño occurred in 2004 and 2009, India saw a failed monsoon. Sugar analysts at Kingsman point out that looking further in the past, there have been seven El Niño years since 1991 but only two of these years saw a failed monsoon.