"In my mind, the market is not assigning a high enough probability of this situation escalating to uncomfortable levels but the reality is the most likely outcome is that it doesn't," said Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.
Even if western sanctions on Russia—the world's eighth largest economy—are ratcheted up and Russian markets are as exposed as their near 10 percent drop over the past 10 days suggests, investors know that seeing through periodic spikes in political tensions would have paid off time and again.
"Russia has oil and gas; it is inconceivable that the West will take any meaningful macro sanctions that would endanger the supply of Russian energy to Europe," said Jim Wood-Smith at Hawksmoor Investment Management. "So there will be all the usual huffing and puffing ... with politicians all hoping everything will have calmed down in a few months."
That may sound too relaxed or even complacent given the stakes at hand. But if wars, coups and conflicts in energy-critical hotspots can't even excite oil prices for more than a few days, then it's hard to see how the wider economic and financial universe would be materially affected.
"The simplest way to measure geopolitical risk is to look at the price of energy. Energy is everything for the macro economist," said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank.
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The reaction on world equity markets would appear to confirm that. For all the short-term wobbles, world equity indices are up 0.6 percent for July and 5.6 percent in the black for the year.
As for any dash to "safe" assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, dollars, gold or Swiss francs, 10-year T-bond yields are down 3 basis points this month but those on two-year paper are up by the same. The dollar has strengthened 1 percent in July, but gold and Swiss francs have fallen almost as much.
But what of other transmission mechanisms from international conflict to the real economy? One potential route would be business or consumer anxiety that crimped spending, hiring or investment due to lack of visibility on demand or job security.
Surveys measuring sentiment will not yet have captured the period since flight MH17 was shot down but there was already a marginal ebbing of euro zone economic sentiment in June from three-year highs.