GO
Loading...

Cramer: Converging developments trouble for bulls

Jim Cramer is seeing troublesome developments all over the market. "We have to face some facts here," he said.

But before we get into details, it's important to note that Cramer is not turning bearish. "I still like much of what I see in the market," he quickly added. It's simply that Cramer thinks there used to be more to like; a lot more.

Here's what's nagging at Jim Cramer:

"First, we are seeing what looks to be the denouement of the housing cycle," Cramer explained.

The "Mad Money" host cited weakness in a string of economic numbers including housing permits as well as the sales of new homes and existing homes in support of his outlook. Also he said companies closely tethered to the sector including Owens Corning, Whirlpool and Armstrong World had all reported disappointing results.

But the final nail in the proverbial coffin came in the form ofCase-Schiller. "It showed a real decline in pricing across the board," Cramer said.

All told, it appears housing tailwinds may have become headwinds. And in this sector the shift is particularly significant because housing impacts at least ten percent of the economy.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

If weakness were isolated to housing, Cramer may not be quite as worried. But troubles are surfacing in the aerospace sector, too.

"Recently I have begun to see downgrades of many stocks connected with the group and candidly, with the exception of Honeywell, every single company that I follow in this sector has not been so hot."

Making the environment that much worse, Cramer said airline stocks have all stalled, too. "That's worrisome, also."

Elsewhere, Cramer said other negatives were surfacing too, in almost every corner of the market.

In the auto sector reports are suggesting that there may be too many cars in the system. "I am tempted to disagree but Ford reported an amazing quarter and it has done nothing, nothing at all. Again, that's just not a good sign."

"Also, out of nowhere, rates have started going down," Cramer added. The issue here is two pronged; some investors interpret the rate decrease as a referendum on the broad economy. Also, lower rates make it harder for banks to make money. In either scenario, pros are likely to avoid the financials.

Turning attention to health care, "Today Aetna got hammered for what looked to be a pretty strong number. That was totally out of nowhere."

------------------------------------------------------------------
Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer
After fixes, flat stock no longer broken
Curious action grabs Cramer's attention
Street unfazed by worsening tensions
------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, Cramer said Cummins reported a number that, on the surface looked good, but turned out to be disappointing to those who thought the cycle was improving.

"And the transports had been going like gangbusters but this morning's shortfall from United Parcel generated a shiver down the spines of those who thought commerce was picking up."

These and other developments have generated chatter among analysts about "end of cycle." That, Cramer said, is taking developments to an extreme.

"I don't believe that most of these cycles are played out (over the long-term). I simply think they are pausing." However, if you're looking to put money to work, you may get an opportunity to buy lower.

That is, Cramer finds the confluence of events outlined above concerning, to say the least. "I am skeptical, especially of the most recent gains."

"I now think that we need some of the companies that report soon to show us that these tailwinds haven't all turned into headwinds. If they have, the market's too high. If they are just pausing than the rally will pause, too, until the numbers get better again."

(Click for video of this segment)

Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Questions for Cramer? madmoney@cnbc.com

Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com

Contact Mad Money

  • Showtimes

    U.S.
    Monday - Friday 6p ET
    Australia
    Saturday 8a, 1p, 7p SYD
    Sunday 12a, 1a, 8a, 7p SYD
    New Zealand
    Saturday 10a, 3p, 9p NZ
    Sunday 2a, 3a, 10a, 9p NZ
  • Jim Cramer is host of CNBC's "Mad Money" and co-anchor of the 9 a.m. ET hour of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

Mad Money Features

  • Grab the latest CNBC gear from the NBCUniversal Store!

  • Get a behind-the-scenes look at how Cramer formulates his investment advice. "Inside the Madness" is a column, which features e-mails and more with Cramer and his researcher Nicole Urken.

  • You’ve always wanted to hit the “Hallelujah!” button. Here’s your chance.

Mad Money Moments

Cramer's New Book