"It would drain reserves from banks," said Guy Moszkowski, analyst at Autonomous Research.
Potentially offsetting any outflows are new regulations that reward banks for accumulating what the rules deem to be more stable, or "sticky", deposits – such as retail deposits that are insured by the US government.
At least one big bank says it has been actively encouraging money funds to take advantage of the RRP as a way for them to move less sticky deposits to the Fed and leave more stable ones with the bank.
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"There are quite a lot of excess deposits in the system," said Christopher Wolfe, analyst at Fitch Ratings, which recently warned on potential bank deposit outflows.
He added: "Some of that's going to find a new home in a different rate environment. Depending on how that plays out, if rates gradually move up in a benign scenario, we don't think that's an issue. If you had a sudden shift in the rate environment, you could see that play out differently."
JPMorgan's $100bn in projected outflows is roughly 7.8 per cent of its deposit base as of the first quarter, according to SNL Financial.
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Second-quarter deposit data are not yet available, but analysts say that would equate to about $880bn to $1tn worth of outflows from the entire industry.
—By Tracy Alloway and Camilla Hall, The Financial Times