It's Thanksgiving and the markets started celebrating early, giving thanks to central banks around the world. In the past few weeks, we've seen action by the Bank of Japan and People's Bank of China and an announcement from European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghithat the bank "might take new measures to boost inflation."
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But think about it: Monetary policy has been unable to significantly stimulate local economies. So, investors should be asking: Why will more stimulus will make a difference this time?
Weakness in both Europe and China is not a positive for those countries and recent central bank action all but admits failure to launch. It is thought to be a boon for U.S. equities: Weakness abroad has made high-yielding, blue-chip Americana names that much more attractive.
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Just when we thought we were beginning to "normalize" and that analysis was going to be based upon fundamentals, we get another shot in the arm, fueling the disconnect between fantasy and reality. Based on the fundamentals, the market may be ahead of itself.
This surely leaves Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen and her band of merry men in a quandary and that could not have been any clearer than in the latest Fed minutes. The minutes show how members disagreed over rates, timing, Europe, Asia, inflation, deflation — in short, the word on the street is mass confusion. And inflation? Not happening (supposedly) and if oil and other commodities continue to move lower, then we could see consumer prices in this country fall in short order, causing Janet even more heartache. And as we now enter the final two years of the Obama administration — with a Republican Congress — the gridlock is only likely to increase. So, Janet and the Fed will find themselves under even more pressure to keep the party going.
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So what is an investor to do in an increasingly volatile environment? Stick with what you know. As the market moves higher, you might want to peel back on some of the less liquid names, as those will be the ones to get whacked the hardest the minute the Fed goes hawkish. Remember what happened only last month, when New York Fed Chair Dudley commented on "frothy valuations" in biotechs — BOOM! They fell out of bed, dragging the broader market with it before you could even turn around. They were rescued only when St Louis Fed President Bullard countered, suggesting that the Fed "should delay" the end of quantitative easing until the markets settle down. And so it goes: Mass confusion.
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To date, the S&P 500 is up 12 percent, the Nasdaq is up 13 percent and the Dow is up 7.5 percent. International markets are also enjoying the stimulus and international investors are giving thanks as well.
With central bankers turning up the heat — will investors get roasted in the end? I still think the market is poised to go higher as the U.S. economy improves, so stick to the plan — just keep your seat belt on.
With all this volatility, it's a great time for some comfort food — bring on the turkey!
As many of you know, I love to cook. Here's Here's my recipe for a delicious Thanksgiving turkey!
Thanksgiving Roasted Turkey
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For this you need: The Turkey, carrots, celery, onions, butter, salt & pepper, an apple and orange, sage, rosemary and thyme, chicken broth, and a splash of champagne.
Begin by rinsing and draining the "defrosted turkey" — never cook a frozen turkey. Be sure to take your turkey out of the freezer on Tuesday morning and let it sit in the fridge to defrost. By Wednesday night you should be good to go ... Make sure to remove the bag with the giblets and neck from the cavity. Rinse it out and let it dry — or pat it down with paper towels. Now on Wednesday night you want to prepare it to allow it to marinate.
Mix all of your seasonings together set aside.
Place the turkey in a roasting pan.
Next — take some softened butter and massage the turkey - breast, legs and thighs. Now — rub the seasonings into the turkey making sure to season all parts. Cover with foil and place back in the fridge.
Thursday morning:
Cut up the apple and the orange into slices and place in the cavity. Rough chop the veggies and place all around the turkey and also in the cavity. Feel free to quarter up some roasting potatoes and include them too. Add the chicken broth and a splash of your favorite champagne — don't ask why. It's champagne — Just enjoy!
Preheat oven to 400 degrees.
Tent the turkey with foil and place in the middle rack and let roast for 30 mins or so ... now reduce heat to 325 degrees and let it cook — 12 to 15 min per pound. So figure it out: 15 lbs = 180 mins/ 225 mins. (3/ 3 ¾ hrs).
Now, remove the foil and allow it to crisp up and turn golden brown. Once done, remove from oven and let it rest for 15 mins. Keep it covered to maintain the warmth.
Serve with all of the usual fixings. Stuffing, Mashed Potatoes, Peas/mushrooms, Asparagus, Brussel Sprouts, Cranberry Sauce, Sweet Potato Pie and stuffed Italian Cubanelle Peppers.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Commentary by Kenny Polcari, director of NYSE floor operations at O'Neil Securities. He is also a CNBC contributor, often appearing on "Power Lunch." Follow Kenny on Twitter @kennypolcari and visit him at kennypolcari.com.
Disclosure: The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions. This commentary is not nor is it intended to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment. The comments noted herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product, or an official statement or endorsement of O'Neil Securities or its affiliates.