Currencies

Which currency is doing well out of Greek jitters?

Safe-haven trades are back in play amid growing concern about Greece's future—and one currency that's likely to benefit the most from the turmoil is the Swiss franc, according to analysts.

The euro hit a three-week low against the Swiss franc and a one-month low versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, reflecting, in part, fears that Greece's cash-strapped government will be unable to pay a 300 million euro ($327 million) International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan repayment due next week.

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"When stresses get worse the Swiss franc does seem to get inflows and that appears to be the case in recent weeks," Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank in London, told CNBC on Tuesday.

"While Greece has been close to the headlines all of this time, the deadlines coming up now are real make or break deadlines."

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Greece, which must repay a total of four loans totalling about $1.75 billion to the IMF in June, has made little headway in negotiations with its international creditors to unlock aid in return for key reforms in areas such as pensions and the labour market.

As the clock ticks down, concerns that Greece is on the verge of a debt default that could potentially trigger its exit from the single-currency club have dominated markets.

"There is a lot of downside risk attached to the euro at the moment and a lot of our clients are steering well clear of being long euro against any other currency," Paul Webb, chief dealer at ADS Securities, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" late Monday.

Big deal about Swissie?

That brings into play those assets that investors tend to park their cash in at times of unease.

Analysts said the Swiss franc, also known as the Swissie, ticks all the boxes of a safe-haven: It is a liquid (which means it is easy to buy and sell), is backed by a country with a current-account surplus and has a stable government and legal system.

These factors will outweigh the impact of negative interest rates, put in place by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), in an effort to dent the franc's appreciation, said Rabobank's Foley.

"If you're looking for a safe-haven, you're not necessarily worried about returns on your investment; you're just worried about getting it back," Foley said.

The Swiss franc soared in January after the SNB abandoned the cap on the franc's value against the euro and cut its key interest rate to -0.75 percent from -0.25 percent.

On Tuesday, the euro fell to 1.0324 Swiss francs, its lowest level in almost three weeks. It has weakened 13 percent against the franc, since the SNB ended the cap in mid-January.

Further strengthening in the Swiss franc that hurts exporters, could trigger more intervention from the SNB, either verbally or with practical measures, analysts said this week.

"From a geographical perspective, I would be looking at the Swiss franc and the (U.K.) pound," David Greene, head of dealing at AFEX Australia, told CNBC on Monday, referring to preferred safe-havens due to the Greek crisis.

"Potentially, there could be more flows back into the (Japanese) yen," he added.

Mighty dollar

Playing the euro
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Playing the euro

Analysts said the dollar, boosted by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve chief, Janet Yellen, on Friday, could also draw some safe-haven flows.

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"The dollar has an on-off relationship with safe-haven status and it doesn't tick all the boxes in terms of fundamentals - it has a budget deficit, a current account deficit, a fiscal deficit," said Foley.

"But it certainly has liquidity and now we've had Yellen appearing to suggest that the Fed will be hiking rates at some point this year, we might see some long-dollar positions appear and it is possible that will suck up some safe-haven trades as well.".

Other analysts cited the pound as a favoured safe-haven trade, although uncertainty about the U.K.'s membership of the European Union could dim its appeal.

"Clients are still bullish on sterling and we've had a good run up in cable (sterling/dollar), so they are looking at other crosses to exploit sterling strength, such as short euro/ sterling and long sterling/yen," said Webb of ADS Securities.