For jobless claims, the dividing line between job losses and job gains is probably between 450k and 475k, which means that at 466k the latest figure may be pointing to a cessation of job losses, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

In citing three conditions, the Federal Reserve has provided a roadmap by which market participants can gauge with greater precision the evolution of monetary policy, in particular the exit strategy for the Fed’s current stance, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

The best way for the Federal Reserve to smoothly exit from its current stance on monetary policy is to make it more a process than an event, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

The all-time closing high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was reached two years ago today at 14,165.53. While we remember it well, the memory is more likely to fade between now and the lengthy period of time it will probably take to return to that level, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

In addition to recent data showing weakness in the labor market, there are many factors causing Treasury yields to fall of late, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

Will deflation turn toward inflation, and if so how will it affect market interest rates?, asks bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

New data on international capital flows into U.S. financial assets were released Monday indicating that in June China was a net seller of $25.1 billion of U.S. Treasuries. Tony Crescenzi explains what this all means.   Read More

As I've noted recently, it should be expected that better economic data such as today's payroll data will support risk assets at the expense of Treasuries for now, so long as economic data continue to improve without interruption, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

If there’s one indicator that investors are likely to embrace as their yardstick for the housing market predicament it is the Case-Shiller home price index. This is the index that turned lower in 2006, presaging the eruption of the credit crisis. Its apparent stabilization hence marks a turn in the housing dilemma, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More

Through the noise, jobless claims have been falling slowly ever since the 4-week moving average peaked at 659k in early April...Nevertheless, one can derive a reasonable approximation.... a peak in jobless claims is apparent—a classic sign of a recession’s end, says bond expert Tony Crescenzi.   Read More