A year ago, spreads between the long bond and the 2-year note were close to zero. At the start of February 2007 we were looking at a slightly inverted yield curve, often a predictor of a recession. Now, a year later, the spread is approaching 300 basis points, hitting 292 on Friday. We haven't hit spreads that wide since 2004. Here is a 10 year history of treasury yields...
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