UK gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to shrink by 4.5 percent this year, the largest decline since 1945, and recent hopes of recovery are running well ahead of reality, Ernst & Young warned in a forecast released Monday.

Short of cash and unable to pay its bills, Kingfisher Airlines of India has had to take on debt from India’s government-owned banks, pledge assets in exchange for loan guarantees, postpone delivery of new planes and search for a foreign investor.