Beijing Games 2008 -- China Bets Big On The Olympics

“They need to keep China growing by 8-10 percent a year for a long time to help keep things stable,” says Rutledge, who is a visiting professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, as well as en economic consultant for the local government there.

Nolt points to an explosion of commercial industry that needs foreign investment. High profile areas such as autos have seen enormous investment, but allied industries have not. In addition, China  -- best known for exporting light industrial products and consumer goods -- is seeking to move up the value chain.

Investment will also be needed to fulfill domestic demand.  China has been undergoing a communications revolution of its own and there is now widespread use of cell phones.

AP

“Many people will be struck by the degree of billboards and colorful advertising,” says Nolt, in illustrating a booming retail sector. “Certainly advertising and marketing firms will be looking at how they tailor the Chinese market.”

That’s true to a point. Per capita income is still only about $2,200, however, and China watchers are quick to point out that there are great regional inequalities.

Risk-Reward Ratio

The games are not without risk for China, at least as far as its reputation and image go.

There's already been a slightly embarrasing moment with the ticket sales.  Overwhelming demand shut down the booking system in late October, prompting a move to a lottery-based system for the second phase Dec. 10-30.

That is likely to be the least of it. Two major trouble spots loom -- dissent and the environment.

Water and air quality are a major concern throughout the country and Beijing is a smoggy city.

“The Chinese government is trying hard to address the pollution problem in Beijing,” says Don Wyatt, a professor at Middlebury College.

There’s talk of a building moratorium come January 2008, in essence to let the air clear. The government is expected to take other steps before and during the games, including the reported imposition of tougher auto emission standards in 2008.

Dissent may not be as manageable or predictable. Protests are quite common and how the government responds will be critical.

China watchers agree that the government is sparing no detail, whether it is increasing the monitoring of dissidents, improving public etiquette, hospitality and English-language skills, or even controlling the weather.

That’s right. Beijing is actually experimenting with ways to prevent rain the day of the opening ceremonies.