The latest EIA data does nothing to change our mind.
Spot Nymex crude oil for August delivery settled last night at 95.42, 1 penny above the settle for Wednesday, June 22nd, the day prior to the IEA’s thinly veiled attempt to control price. Brent oil futures closed last night at 112.48. That is still 1.73 or 1½% below the close for June 22nd, but it is 7.36 (!) or 7.0% (!) above last Friday’s settle.
Greece is disintegrating right in front of our eyes, Egyptian protestors are still hurling stones in Tahrir Square, Muammar is hanging in there and the AFP reports that Iran has been “…carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN resolution 1929."
In the wake of last Thursday’s surprise announcement from the IEA, the forward curve of the Brent crude oil market has been turned on its head, literally. At the same time, sweet/sour diffs have collapsed.
A recent article in The New York Times regarding growth prospects for North American shale gas was the talk of the town yesterday. The article in question, called into question, the prospects of shale gas development.
In our book, Saddam’s annexation of Kuwait and devastation to the U.S. refinery epicenter are emergencies.