Brady Quinn

NFL players who lose value in the draft should just hire me. Because for the second straight year, I hit the quarterback loss of value number right on the head. Last year, I perfectly predicted that Matt Leinart would lose $10 million by going 10th in the 2006 Draft. The year before, the No. 1 pick Alex Smith got $24 million in signing bonuses and Leinart, sure enough, wound up with $14 million.

Now let me take you to what I said on April 29, the day after Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn slipped from the possible No. 3 draft pick to No. 22.

"It's really hard to do this, but I feel like I have to throw an educated number out there. Brady Quinn lost $17 million on Saturday as a result of being taken by Cleveland with the No. 22 pick instead of being taken by the Browns at the No. 3 slot that everyone else thought he would be taken at."

Now let's take you to the math. Quinn signed a deal today that included $7.75 million guarantees. Had he gone number 3, he would have received about $25 million in guarantees (Joe Thomas, who was drafted third by the Browns got $22-$23 million in bonuses, but remember that quarterback premium). That means Quinn lost $17.25 million from the slide.

Questions?  Comments?