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Fast Money Fall Forecast: What To Watch

Monday, 27 Aug 2007 | 12:14 PM ET
WILL WE KEEP FALLING IN THE FALL?
It Wasn’t Your Typical Slow Summer as Volatility Spiked and the Market Sold Off; What Will the Fed Do at Sept. 18 Meeting? And what should investors do to prepare?

The fall has been historically spectacular for the stock market in every recent year other than 2002. But the historical data is irrelevant this fall, Tim Seymour says.

Word on the Street
The Fast Money guys take a look at today's top business stories.

The credit concerns aren’t going away, Guy Adami says, but he thinks the market will have “priced it out” by the fall.

October is traditionally a big month of financial upheaval, Jeff Macke says. In the long run, the market will be fine but “brace yourself [for] a bumpy fall,” he says.

Guy Adami thinks global strength will lift the U.S. economy and “take us through.”

Watch for the credit story to become much larger on a global scale, Tim Seymour says.

WHAT TO WATCH: BACK-TO-SCHOOL:
What’s Your Retail Trade As Kids and College Students Return To School?

The back-to-school season is the second biggest cycle for retail after Christmas. The consumer isn’t looking that great, says Jeff Macke, but there are still trades in this crucial time period. He would buy McDonald’s (MCD) long term on the dips and Dillard’s (DDS), which he thinks has been way too high for too long and is now coming down to levels where investors can start adding it as another long term play.

Fall doesn’t just mean back-to-school. It’s also means football. Pete Najarian thinks Under Armour (UA) is a buy on the football season and he also likes Electronic Arts (ERTS) for its rich video game pipeline.

WHAT TO WATCH: DRUG STOCKS:
Should You Expect Biotech Shares to Make a Comeback This Fall?

When it comes to biotech, autumn is huge because that’s when the lion’s share of the conferences are held. For two decades, according to The Wall Street Journal, most biotech returns have occurred in the autumn months. The conferences produce news – and news is where stock price action lives.

There are four major conferences this fall: the European Society of Cardiology, the American Neurological Association, the American Association for the Study of Liver Seases and the American College of Rheumatology.

Biotech and Big Pharma companies also have a slew of drugs they anticipate releasing in the coming months: Merck (MRK) has Isentress, an AIDS drug; Novartis (NVS) has Prexige, a pain medicine; Biogen (BIIB) has Tysabri for Crohn’s Disease; Pfizer (PFE) has Lyrica for pain; and Genentech (DNA) has Herceptin for breast cancer.

Of all these potential plays, Pete Najarian thinks Biogen stands out as “long and strong” in part because it managed to weather the recent market volatility.

WHAT TO WATCH: OIL & ENERGY:
What Are Your Best Oil and Energy Trades Heading Into Autumn?

Tim Seymour doesn’t think the supply & demand cycle has changed much, and oil will likely continue to trade on supply disruptions like hurricanes. Oil is also a fiscal trade on a weak dollar, he says.

Don’t forget about coal, Pete Najarian says – and by extension, the railroads. “Coal is not dead yet.”



WHAT TO WATCH: DEFENSE:
What’s Your Defense Trade Ahead of Much-Anticipated Iraq War Update This Fall?

Regardless of what happens in the Iraq War or who occupies the White House next fall, defense spending isn’t going anywhere, Guy Adami says. His picks in the sector are Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), L – 3 Communications (LLL) and, his old favorite, Boeing (BA).

Jeff Macke recommends another long-term favorite, Alliant Tech (ATK).

Pete Najarian thinks investors could get long Titanium Metals (TIE), which is involved in all the sectors of the defense complex.

WHAT TO WATCH: THE WORLD:
Which Global Market Catalysts and Events Should You Be Watching This Fall?

The big thing to watch is the Fed meeting on Sept. 18. Guy Adami strongly believes the Fed will cut. It’s an “easy call,” he says. And when that happens, the U.S. dollar will drop and gold will spike.

A Fed cut isn’t a sure thing, Jeff Macke says. Fed futures don’t mean anything and the Fed is showing us that it has more tools than just a rate cut at its disposal.

Tim Seymour will be watching a less-hyped event: the Argentinean elections in October. Argentina is a country with a terrible credit story, he says, and its political calendar will be somewhat of a litmus test to see how investors come back into emerging markets.

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Trader disclosure: On the date of taping, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Seymour Owns (AAPL), (TWX), (INTC), Is Short (MS); Macke Owns (EMC), (INTC), (ATVI), (DIS); NBC Universal is the Parent Company of CNBC

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