Stocks rally...but it may have been due to the Bank of Japan, not the Federal Reserve.

Stocks did nothing for the first 10 minutes or so after the Fed announcement, but after that the Dow Industrial Average suddenly shot up almost 40 points, while bonds remained unchanged.

The new head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, is scheduled to hold his first press conference as BOJ chief tomorrow.

Shortly after 2:00 p.m. ET, the Japanese press leaked that Kuroda would pledge "bold monetary easing both in terms of quantity and quality."

While it has been anticipated that Kuroda would call for quickly trying to achieve a two percent inflation target, Kuroda will likely call for an early start to an aggressive program of asset purchases with no set end date, according to The Nikkei newspaper.

The yen weakened against the dollar.

The lower-than-expected numbers from Caterpillar (CAT) (three month sales notably weak) and FedEx (FDX) (worse-than-expected international volumes) is highlighting an issue bears have been pounding on for months: the global economy may not be as healthy as the "teflon" U.S. stock market might indicate.

Those bears have insisted the U.S. stock market is doing better because of...

1. An activist Federal Reserve, which is forcing investors into stocks and high-yielding instruments; and
2. The U.S. economy, while tepid, is still better than most of the world.

Now, thanks to the news from FDX and CAT, the bears have some ammunition.

Of course, the market is largely ignoring FDX and CAT, but this only plays into the hands of those who argue traders only care about the Fed.

And who can blame them? The liquidity has been insane--there are inflows into stocks practically every day. It's hard to fight!

Still, CAT was particularly shocking. Looking at these sales figures for the three months ending in February:

• Worldwide Machine Sales: -13%
• Asia/Pacific: -26%
• Europe, Africa, Middle East: -9%
• North America: -12%

Asia/Pacific down 26 percent? That is catastrophic! Some of this can be explained by the fact that the Chinese New Year took place in January of last year and February of this year. Some, but not all.

Of course, it's been known for some time that mining equipment sales have been considerably weak. Now there are concerns that construction sales may be dropping off.

Also, I would note that Wells Fargo (WFC) downgraded Deere (DE) and AGCO (AGCO) today, saying they are becoming more bearish on U.S. farm equipment demand due to lower anticipated corn prices. This is not the same as the "sluggish global economy" theme, but it is impacting machinery stocks as well.

You know what is amusing? All those strategists who have been bearish because they thought earnings were what mattered and they saw earnings growth slowing and that revenues were flat have all now thrown in the towel and gone bullish!

Global markets rebound: mainland China up 2.6 percent (biggest jump in two months); European equities are up; and European bond yields are dropping in Italy.

The European Central Bank and the euro zone have not blinked on Cyprus: No sign that they are going to cave in and approve a blanket loan for the country. Cyprus is now pleading with Russia for money. I speculated yesterday that they may be willing to exchange money for board seats on Cypriot banks, but the speculation this morning is even wilder: the possible outright sale of Cyprus Popular Bank to Russian investors, or equity in a Cypriot natural gas business.

(Read More: Cyprus Considers Money Lockdown, Russia Aid)

Elsewhere:

1) FedEx reported earnings well below expectations and guidance for the current quarter, and fourth quarter also below expectations ($0.94 to $1.34 a share, versus consensus estimate of $2.07 a share). The company cited weakness in international air freight markets and "accelerating customer preference for lower-yielding international services, lower rate per pound, and weight per shipment."

Will the Troika blink? Stocks rally as the European Central Bank says it will continue to help Cyprus.

I had written earlier that the Cypriot parliament would likely have to institute some kind of deposit tax--even after it had voted down one version--because the Troika (ECB/International Monetary Fund/euro zone partners) had given the Cypriots an ultimatum: We will give you 10 billion euros in aid, and no more. Need 17 billion? Go raise the other 7 billion. And the implicit threat was that the ECB may not continue to backstop the Cypriot banks.

That's what started this whole thing about the deposit tax. But now, the ECB has extended an olive branch: it said that it would continue to provide liquidity to Cypriot banks, even though the Cypriots voted down a deposit tax.

The Cypriot parliament has reportedly rejected the bill to levy taxes on depositors. This bill would have no tax on deposits below 20,000 euros, a 6.75 percent tax on deposits from 20,000 to 100,000 euros, and 9.9 percent above 100,000 euros.

No matter: They will likely revise the plan and vote for a sole tax on depositors above 100,000 euros.

Stocks had already dropped early on word the bill under consideration may not pass, and on unconfirmed reports that the Finance Minister has resigned.

Why are U.S. stocks reacting to this? Because it raises the stability question. Stability of whether Cyprus will stay in the euro zone, and that other countries may institute a similar tax.

Here's why some tax on deposits will likely pass: there is no other place to get money except bank deposits. The country is an offshore bank haven. There's olive groves, and banks. There are not a lot of bank bondholders. There are a lot of foreign depositors.

The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has published its annual Retirement Confidence Survey which confirms what virtually all such surveys have concluded: 1) that Americans are living longer; and 2) that they do not have anywhere near enough saved for retirement.

The sad truth is, Americans do almost no thinking about what kind of retirement they want. They mistakenly assume that Social Security is a retirement program, when in fact it is a supplemental retirement program. The three legs of the retirement "stool"—Social Security, a pension, and private savings—have all seen some shrinkage in the past few years.

For Social Security, all baby boomers know the truth: We are going to be working longer, into our 70s, paying more and getting less. Pensions are going away: International Business Machines stopped providing pensions to new employees a couple years ago, and many are facing reductions in their benefits.

(Read More: Cities That Are Most Prepared for Retirement)

Two questions about Monday's action:

1) Why was there no market freak-out, no bank runs?

A lot has been made that the Cypriot situation is "unique" and cannot be applied to rest of the euro area. Yes—and no.

The overwhelming response from traders has been: No freak-out because everyone believes the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is backstopping everything. Most believe that if push comes to shove, the ECB will print as much money as it needs ... even if it means using that money to pay depositors. Even if it means putting funds back into banks to replace the lost deposits.

(Read More: Cyprus Gives the Fed More Reasons to Buy Bonds)

Yes, too much printing will cause inflation, and that will reduce the value of the currency. But, absent hyperinflaion, that will not cause a bank run.

Cyprus. First, let's state the obvious: Seizing small depositors assets (a one-off levy on bank deposits of 6.75 percent for amounts up to 100,000 euros, or roughly $130,000, and 9.9 percent above 100,000 euros) — when it was widely believed that there was a 100,000 euro deposit guarantee — is a bad precedent. It's bad for confidence, and bad for banks.

I'm willing to bet that banks have already lost more than the 5.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) they are claiming they are going to raise from the tax.

(Read More: Cyprus to Put Forward New Bailout Plan: Reports)

With that said, let us not protest too much, or pretend to be too shocked: There have been plenty of one-off tax events in Europe recently — Italy recently raised taxes on all financial assets. True, most of the taxes have been on gains, not depositors, but in the case of Cyprus there was apparently not much else to go after.

Markets: heavy volume on quadruple witching, but volatility low. Markets dropped in the first half hour — S&P 500 paid out a dividend last night, so some might have sold at the open.

Big trade this afternoon will be the quarterly rebalancing in the S&P 500...three big names will have stock to sell at the close because they have had sizable buybacks this quarter and will be shrinking the size of their float in the S&P 500: Exxon Mobil, AT&T, and Pfizer.

What's next? The strong advance/decline line for the past few weeks is a positive short-term indicator...with momentum this strong, markets are usually higher a couple weeks later.

Speaking of a couple weeks: it's all about the end of the quarter. And what a quarter it has been, so far: we are up 34 out of 51 trading days...that is 66 percent of the time.

The bank capital return plans: Some banks returning as significant dividend payers.

Good news:

1) Bank of America was the big winner: A larger-than-expected $5 billion share buyback and a plan to redeem $5.5 billion in preferred shares. No dividend increase, but the buyback was much bigger than most projected — some had anticipated as little as a $1 billion.

2) Some banks are returning as significant dividend payers. Wells Fargo increased the annual dividend to $1.20, some 34 percent above last year and higher than most estimates. The bank now pays out the highest dividend yields of the large banks, about 3.2 percent, with JPMorgan Chase at about 3 percent.

Others are heading toward the significant 3 percent ratio. Capital One Financial went from $0.20 to $1.20, now with a 2.2 percent yield.