Two market worries this morning are declining fourth quarter earnings and deteriorating internals. Ned Davis, a respected market researcher, specifically pointed to the poor breadth this morning and told his clients "further caution is advised." The bottom line: market leadership is increasingly focused in some materials and techs, and a few energy stocks.
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The takeaway from the GM numbers is that expectations for auto sales, particularly in North America, appear too high and is exacerbating concerns about a softer U.S. consumer. Forget about the somewhat confusing $39 billion non-cash charge.
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Several factors weighing on futures prior to the open: 1) GM posting its biggest quarterly loss ever; $39 billion amounts to $68.85 a share loss, a mind-boggling number considering the stock is $36. Down 5% pre-open. Declining to provide guidance is the key here. However, this news came out last night and is not the primary reason the market is down.
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Market leaders like metal and energy and tech stocks got help from financials today--that hasnt happened in a long time. But the big story was the weak dollar, which helped push gold, silver, and oil to new highs. Commodity stocks like precious metals, steel, and iron ore also surged.
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With retail stocks down 11% year to date, you would think some would be out looking to call a bottom, but bearishness remains very high among retail analysts. Morgan Stanley very typical of that mood this morning, was out with a long note on retailers called "Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, Just Wrong."
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The dollar, which is hitting new lows against the Euro and other currencies today, is sparking considerable debate. Gold and oil are hitting new highs, partly on the dollar's weakness. The weak dollar has been a big help to U.S. exports and definitely helped corporate earnings of U.S. multinationals. That is the standard line, and it's true.
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Despite the late day 100 point move in the Dow, the day had a feeling of disappointment to it. Traders made it clear we were now data-dependent, and we got the kind of positive data we needed in the jobs report. The result? A rally that lasted 15 minutes at the open, and then traders sold into it.
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Bill Miller at Legg Mason just sent a letter to his investors. He correctly identifies the key issue: "The issue for the stock market and for the global economy is the extent to which the slowdown in U.S. consumption will spill over into a decline in global production next year"
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The bulls got what they wanted--nonfarm payroll TWICE the estimate at 160,000. Remember the game now: good news is good news, that is, we need strong economic data now to dampen down recession and larger slowdown fears. S&P futures up 10 points. Strength was in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality strong.
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Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.
A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.