Traders overreact to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments. Bernanke, in his Q and A, essentially reiterated what New York Fed President William Dudley said Tuesday: that any change in the flow of bond purchases will depend on data.
As we wait for Merrill's conference call to begin in a few minutes, traders are wondering what could be said that would move the stock off its lows. Note that despite Merrill's big writedown, its exposure to CDOs and the subprime market remains fairly substantial.
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Call it an ugly mortgage market, call it poor risk management. But Merrill's writedown of $7.9 billion in subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), $3.4 billion more than they had previously announced just three weeks ago, was being greeted as a sign that plenty more bad news remains on banks' and brokers' books.
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The pattern is now very clear: companies that have significant exposure to the U.S. consumer market are having problems. Whether it is Coach (lowered guidance), IHOP (drop in guest traffic), Brinker (ditto), or Whirlpool (lower overall sales). These companies are 1) seeing slower business in the U.S. market and 2) get a significant part of their sales in the U.S.
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The divide between strong international/weak domestic is nowhere more evident than with Whirlpool. Whirlpool noted that the strength was in international and the costs savings generated by the Maytag acquisition.
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As suspected the market cares more about Apple's earnings than anything else this morning. However, a number of other important companies came through, with a couple exceptions. At American Express, investor concerns about a slowdown in card spending and an increase in charge offs did not materialize.
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And the bell rang and what happened was a very modest late day rally. Perfect. A big selloff, and fear levels would go way up. A big comeback, and the bears--who have gained a great deal of traction in the past week--would be throwing stones immediately. Very modest rally is just the right reaction.
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Here are my thoughts so far today: 1) As expected, sloppy trading--weak open, modest rally, sell into rally. The crowd yelling "oversold" cannot drown out the great majority, who feel it is not really worth it to be a hero until things settle down.
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Traders expecting a sloppy day, with weakness at the open, but many are anticipating an attempt to stabilize right after that: others insist there is no reason to step in and be a hero on the long side.
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AmEx on Monday will tell us about how consumer spending looks, but the pattern is clear: CEOs are talking down expectations. Sound familiar? They did this before! At the end of Q1, there were all sorts of comments from CEOs not to expect much in Q2 and Q3.
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We are down today and here's some of the explanation: energy and industrial companies are emphasizing the slowdown in the U.S., while noting growth overseas. This is causing traders to question earnings assumptions for Q4 and 2008.
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Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.
A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.
If it sounds like Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is dancing in his testimony, it's because he is doing rhetorical figure eights in trying to signal where the Fed is going.