First ISM, then ISM services, then ADP, then initial jobless claims, and now nonfarm payrolls...but man! A 95,000 increase in private payrolls? It's the "end of the end of QE talk."
The 2.3% rise in the Dow last week, coupled with lower volume and lower volatility, has given the markets what it wants mosts: time. Time allows market participants to readjust risk. JP Morgan, in a note to clients this morning, said "The key issue for the months ahead will be to figure out the impact of tighter credit conditions on economic growth."
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While July existing home sales came in in line with expectations, the pace is still weak and the increase in inventory (to 9.6 months supply at the current sales pace) is especially unwelcome. This occurred before the recent credit crunch, so the concern is that difficulties in the mortgage market may further impact sales in August. However, there are other things to keep in mind.
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Talk about a recession from a very small group of people need to be balanced against the fact that no major strategist is predicting a recession. Many are trimming their forecasts slightly, but that is a long way from a recession. Even Ben Bernanke maintains a forecast of "moderate" growth of 2.5% in the GDP this year, and a slight expansion in 2008.
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The hot topic on the Street is the probability of a recession. Robert Albertson, chief strategist at Sandler O'Neill, and this morning Angelo Mozillo, CEO of Countrywide both voiced fears that a recession was coming. Opinions are sharply divided on this. David Bianco, UBS' Equity Strategist, said earlier this month that the S&P seems to be signaling a "financial sector recession" (i.e. that a recession is expected to mostly affect financial sector profits).
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Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.
A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.
CNBC's Bob Pisani and Art Cashin, of UBS, discuss today's disappointing jobs number, and the concern that it may indicate "stall speed" in the economy.