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Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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  Friday, 18 Apr 2008 | 11:07 AM ET

Caterpillar's Global Growth Story

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Caterpillaris an excellent example of how global growth is helping the bottom line of big corporations. Here's the story: global growth is NOT decelerating to any appreciable extent; in fact, it is strong and, in some cases, getting stronger.

Caterpillar now gets two-thirds of its sales outside the U.S.; they are maintaining 2008 guidance even though North America looks weak, because global sales are so strong.

Here's what happened in the last quarter:

North America up 3 percent
Europe/Australia/Middle East up 27 percent
Asia/Pacific up 35 percent
Latin America up 18 percent

More importantly, they have adjusted their regional revenue forecasts DOWN for North America but UP for everywhere else.

Asia/Pac sales up 15-20 percent from previous up 10-15 percent
Europe/Australia/Middle East up 7-12 percent from earlier up 5-10 percent
Latin Am. up 15-20 percent from up 10-15 percent
N. America down 2 percent to up 2 percent from previous flat to +5 percent

It's not all sunshine; rising raw material costs is a real problem for them. But the international sales are extremely encouraging.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Friday, 18 Apr 2008 | 9:25 AM ET

Citi, Industrials Providing Some Relief

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Citiis providing the main upside impetus, but relief that big industrials like Caterpillar and Honeywell did not repeat GE's concern that last two weeks of March fell apart, is also a big help; the dollar has rallied. Today is an options expiration day.

For Citigroup , similar to Merrill Lynch : earnings a tad worse than expected, but not much (loss of $1.06 vs. estimated loss of $0.95), writedowns a bit worse but not dramatically so. Non performing assets were up 16 percent, but that seems less than expected. Perhaps most importantly, CEO Vikrim Pandit is out on the conference call saying the leveraged loan market is beginning to trade. Citi up 8 percent pre-open.

What's up in China? Reported strong GDP growth of over 10 percent this week, but you wouldn't know it looking at the Chinese stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is at a 52-week low, though Hong Kong is holding up a bit better. The Chinese government has been tightening its monetary policy to slow economic growth.

What happened to the deterioration in the last two week of March that GE talked about? It didn't happen to Caterpillar . They reported earnings of $1.45, 12 cents ahead of expectation, revenues ahead of expectations as well. Maintaining 2008 guidance. Again, look at the U.S. vs. international machinery sales: North America up 3 percent, but Europe/Australia/Middle East up 27 percent, Asia/Pacific up 35 percent, and Latin America up 18 percent. Caterpillar now gets two-thirds of its sales outside the U.S. Up 4 percent.

Honeywell also beat expectations, and raised its full-year guidance . Stronger growth overseas. Aeorpsace (about 35 percent of sales) up 7 percent, Automation and Control Solutions (also about 35 percent of sales) up 14 percent, Transportation Systems (about 15 percent of sales) up 14 percent, and Specialty Materials (also about 15 percent of sales) up 18 percent. Up 4 percent.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Thursday, 17 Apr 2008 | 4:37 PM ET

The Case For Being Bullish

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Futures popped right after the close as Google reported strong numbers ; up 10 percent.

Major indices stable today, despite mixed earnings report. IBM , good, Marriott , ok on strong international sales, but Conway ,Nokia and Pfizer were notable disappointments.

Dow, S&P are now approaching 3-month highs.

What's up with the brokers? Really closing strong here: Lehman up 5 percent, Merrill up 5 percent, Morgan Stanley and Goldman up 2-3 percent.

Seems like a lot of short covering, but the theory is...what? Earnings out, brokers unlikely to get worse? Well, sort of. As one trader in financials noted to me, "earnings have to be real bad, not just in line" to keep short positions on.

That's true, but the case for getting bullish is broader than that. Simply put, here's out the bulls are explaining it to me:

1) The write downs mean anything anymore, the story is old, the numbers are meaningless.

2) Probably one or two more rounds of it but the sentiment doesnt really change that much.

3) They are historically cheap, they have survived the meltdown and had no problems raising outside capital.

The downside to this game, as others have noted, is that if the quarter progresses and business is not getting any better, shorts will go right back on again.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Thursday, 17 Apr 2008 | 1:05 PM ET

New ETFs: Keeping Track Of International Exchanges

Posted By: Bob Pisani

The markets might be off to a painful start this year, but new ETFs keep coming out. The latest out just this week is a whole suite of ETFs that track several key international exchanges.

They're called NETS, which stands for Northern Exchange Traded Shares, and they're from Northern Trust, one of the leaders in institutional index management.

Here's a list of the NETS Indexes:

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  Thursday, 17 Apr 2008 | 9:13 AM ET

Earnings Not Much Help For Markets

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Mixed reports on earnings this morning; IBM is a help, but Pfizer , Continental Airlines , Marriottand Nokia are not.

Merrill Lynch recorded another $9 b in write-downs on mortgage-related assets, leveraged loans and hedges.

The net loss of $1.97. b ($2.20 a share, expectations were for a loss of $1.96), was the third straight quarterly loss. Both equities and fixed income revenues were below expectations. Also announced a 10 percent head count reduction (about 4,000 jobs). CEO Thain is making both cautious and soothing comments on the conference call, saying he is planning for a slower, more difficult next few quarters, but is optimistic about fiscal y ear 2008.

Pfizer 61 cents, a nickel below expectations, also missed on revenues . Sales of big drugs like Lipitor and Celebrex look below expectations. Not a good start for pharmaecutical earnings. Down 4 percent.

Continental Airlines reported a loss, no surprise since jet fuel costs were up over 50 percent, but it was not as bad as analysts had predicted. They are taking more planes out of service and reducing capacity. They were not terribly downbeat, however. Southwest Airlines reported a small gain.

Marriott cut its earnings outlook for 2008. Once again, growth is international. Revenue per available room (REVPAR, the standard metric) grew only 2.3 percent; international REVPAR increased 18.5 percent (these are for company-owned hotels).

United Technologies reported earnings slightly above expectations and reaffirmed its 2008 earnings guidance.

UBS' CEO is sounding optimistic this morning, says he doesn't think they will need to raise more capital, and that signs of improvement are starting to appear, but that it will take several more months to exit from the crises.

Nokia reported earnings about in line with expectations , but noted that average selling prices continue to decline, and they seem to have lost market share. Down 11 percent pre-open.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Wednesday, 16 Apr 2008 | 4:58 PM ET

IBM Services: The Real Surprise

Posted By: Bob Pisani

IBM up about 3 percent after the bell to a new multi-year high on earnings that beat expectations.

The surge is not just about the beat -- but how they did it: hardware was flat, as expected (there were fears it would be weaker), software was strong, and services (more than half of revenue) were very strong.

There had been fears about services, since about 25 percent of the revenue from services was from financial firms -- and some worried that the financial firms might have cut back on their use of IBM's services. Didn't happen.

IBM also raised its full-year guidance ; S&P futures up about 5 points on this.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Wednesday, 16 Apr 2008 | 4:10 PM ET

A Broad And Deep Rally: Here's Why

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Steady as she goes! Stocks retained their early gains and closed at the highs for the day. We had over 100 new highs at the NYSE, the highest numbers since November. Dow, S&P again approaching break-out range.

The rally was broad and deep. There were several motivating factors:

--Techs up on Intel .

--Financials up on in-line bank earnings from JP Morgan, Washington Mutual .

--Material stocks like metals and mining, steel, agricultural stocks up on continuing commodity surge;

--Transports: 8 month highs (up 4.1 percent) on a terrific report fromCSX. Railroads hit new highs across the board

Lagging: defensive stocks like Coke (despite good earnings),Altria ,P&G .

IBM closes at a new high; lots of bulls expecting earnings to be ok after the bell.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Wednesday, 16 Apr 2008 | 9:15 AM ET

Earnings Show Financials Are Still Key For Markets

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Now that we are starting to get into the heart of earnings season, the news is looking a little better (thank heavens!). Intel is a big help , but the financials are the key here. After what happened with GE and Wachovia, the Street was primed for all sorts of bad news, which--at least today--has NOT materialized:

--JP Morgantalked about "solid business momentum and our capital position remained strong" but was cautious on the economy . Up 2 percent pre-open. I'm not trying to gild the lilly here; earnings were down about 50 percent, but it was not worse than expected.

--Wells Fargotalked about "balance sheet strengthening", acknowledged that losses from home equity loans had increased . Up 8 percent pre-open.

--Washington Mutual reported a loss of $1.40; not good, but it was in line with guidance they had provided.

Elsewhere:

1) What global slowdown? Chinese GDP up 10.6 percent, slightly higher than expected. They raised reserve requirements.

2) It hurts, but it's good news: March housing starts weaker than expected, the lowest since early 1991; more importantly permits were below consensus at 927 thousand, also the lowest since 1991. This is bad for GDP but good for getting the inventory levels down. CPI in line with expectations, but still elevated.

3) Commodity inflation is a big problem. Potash up 4 percent pre-open; they just announced an agreement with a Chinese fertilizer to supply potash at prices $400 per ton higher than in 2007. In other words, potash (and fertilizer) prices just keep going up.

Speaking of commodity inflation: copper up 3 percent, near a new high.

4) JC Penney's CEO, Myron Ullman, said that he did not have enough visibility to provide guidance. He spoke at an analyst meeting. Down 1 percent pre-open.


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Tuesday, 15 Apr 2008 | 5:00 PM ET

Trader Talk: Intel Guidance Gives Cheer

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Finally, a little bit of good news -- from Intel , trading up 7 percent after the close. (IBM reports tomorrow.)

Why no rally from the airlines, despite the Delta -Northwest merger? Traders, to a man, pointed to oil: Jet fuel has now passed labor as the No. 1 expense for airlines.

In the last three weeks, five U.S. carriers declared bankruptcy: Skybus, Aloha, ATA Airlines, Champion Air and the latest, Frontier Air. They declared bankruptcy because they cannot make money selling seats at the current prices with oil at a record.

Morgan Stanley's airline analyst, Willliam Greene, had to say to his clients this morning: "Our rule of thumb is to look for opportunities to become sellers once consolidation momentum has run its course, because airline mergers are inherently risky."


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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  Tuesday, 15 Apr 2008 | 11:59 AM ET

Airline Mergers: A Dismal Assessment

Posted By: Bob Pisani

With all the talk about the benefits of airline mergers, there are some sad realities around this entire business.

Here is a somewhat downbeat -- and controversial -- assessment about what all these airline mergers might really mean, from Peter Schiff, president of brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital:

"The recently announced mega merger between Delta and Northwest may usher in a newer, harsher era for the American airline industry.

"In truth, given the rising costs of building, flying, and servicing aircraft, U.S. carriers currently supply more planes and passenger miles than American consumers can afford to utilize. While this may seem illogical, given that domestic flights are usually fully booked, it is important to realize that these crowded planes do not translate into profit at current ticket prices.

"While mergers may help the airlines hold down costs for a bit, the only lasting pathway to profit is fewer flights and significantly higher ticket prices. Of course, this will mean that Americans of modest means will travel less by air. Unfortunately, that fact is simply an inevitable consequence of a sagging currency and diminishing national wealth."


Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

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About Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

  • Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.

 

  • A CNBC reporter since 1990, Bob Pisani covers Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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