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Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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  Thursday, 11 Oct 2007 | 9:46 AM ET

Retailer's Surprise: Lower Guidance

Posted By: Bob Pisani
September comparable retail sales were generally lower than expected, even after numbers were lowered in the last week. Apparel companies like Limited, Chico's, Abercrombie, Gap and Limited missed, but so did Target, as did the department stores like Saks and Nordstrom. »Read more
  Thursday, 11 Oct 2007 | 8:52 AM ET

Retailers: Warm Weather Yields Cold Sales

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Warm weather left apparel retailers with a lot of unsold suits and sweaters in September. Limited, Chico's, Abercrombie, Gap and Limited missed. Men's Wearhouse cut its forecast for third quarter profits, citing "continued softening in traffic trends." »Read more
  Wednesday, 10 Oct 2007 | 4:59 PM ET

Retail Concerns Slow Rally

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Concerns that retail earnings and same store sales mightbe on the light side are being born out, at least initialnumbers.

Men's Wearhouse cut its forecast for third quarter profits,citing "continued softening in traffic trends."

American Eagle saw a decrease of 5% in September comparablestore sales, citing lower traffic and unseasonably warmweather.

Separately, restauranteur Ruby Tuesday also reported firstquarter earnings in line with forecasts that had been loweredseveral weeks ago, but they cut their full year forecast aswell.

Traders had to deal with several negatives today:

  1. The Boeing delay of the 787Dreamliner dropped Boeing 3%; other aerospace-relatedstocks like Honeywell were also weak but rallied latein the day
  2. Energy stocks were weak asChevron and Valero lowered earnings estimates,though these stocks rallied back late in theday as oil rallied
  3. The financial rally thatwas entering its fourth week peteredout
  4. Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

»Read more
  Wednesday, 10 Oct 2007 | 1:31 PM ET

Midday Buzz

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Market is dealing with several problems today:

1) Boeing down more than 3% after it delayed deliveries ofits 787 Dreamliner for six months, due to problems assemblingthe plane. Though they say it won't materially hurt 20087 or2008 earnings, it is still a surprise.

Other stocks in the aerospace group are weak:

  • Honeywell make electrical andengine parts for planes
  • Rockwell Collins makeselectronics and communication equipment for theplanes
  • BE Aerospace makescabin components like seats, coffemakers, and refrigeration equipment
  • PrecisionCastparts makes metal parts for theaerospace business
  • SpiritAerosystems makes underwingcomponents and wingsthemselves

    2) Energy companies arelowering earnings -- Chevron, Marathon , Valero .Combined with the lowering ofearnings by financials lastweek, this means that thirdquarter earnings estimatesfor the S&P 500 as awhole are now going to goNEGATIVE.

    3) The market is also dealingwith some contradictions:

    • TheDow and S&P areat new highs, but breadthis only fair--transportsare lagging, small andmidcaps lagging
    • Bullishness amongfinancial newsletterwriters is at the highestlevels since Dec. 2005 --yet market participation-- volume and buyinginterest -- are not veryhigh
    • Q3earnings now zero, butnobody is touching Q4 --bulls say Q4 will clearlybe stronger, bears saythe numbers are going tocome down -- quickly

    Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com

»Read more
  Wednesday, 10 Oct 2007 | 10:55 AM ET

Chevron's Revealing Comments

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Chevron's commentary last night are a tad disturbing for a couple of reasons. It's not the obvious things: they lowered earnings partly on weaker margins for refined products. This was somewhat expected, given that we knew oil prices were high and gasoline prices did not move up as much, so refiners have seen their margins squeezed. »Read more
  Wednesday, 10 Oct 2007 | 10:46 AM ET

Hump Day Outlook

Posted By: Bob Pisani
The throw-in-the-kitchen sink mentality that prevailed among financials last week--when Citi, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Sovereign and others dramatically lowered earnings estimates, and traders drove the stocks up on the theory that this was the quarter they took the big losses and Q4 would see improvement -- is now becoming evident in commodity stocks as well. »Read more
  Tuesday, 9 Oct 2007 | 1:05 PM ET

IPOs Heat Up

Posted By: Bob Pisani
IPO business heating up a bit. Typical post-Labor Day slowdown seems to be ending now. Couple of interesting ones coming this week: 1) Affinion Group (AFI), former subsidiary of Cendant, purchased by Apollo in 2005, a global provider of loyalty programs and customized market services, and 2) Virgin Mobile »Read more
  Tuesday, 9 Oct 2007 | 9:39 AM ET

Morning Observations

Posted By: Bob Pisani
1) We spoke yesterday about how low the expectations are for retail sales reports coming out at the end of the week. Today, the International Council of Shopping Centers is lowering their Sept growth estimate to about 2% from an original target range of 2-2.5%, the slowest gain since April. Problems? First, there's the weather -- unseasonably warm. Second, comps are tough. Third, the Street believes that economic weakness may still be accelerating and spilling over to the consumer, despite the strong jobs report. »Read more
  Monday, 8 Oct 2007 | 4:11 PM ET

Uncertain Highs

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Want to know why the markets are just off historic highs, but somehow it doesn't feel that way? Look at Goldman Sachs portfolio strategist David Kostin -- he recently met with 50 clients... and noted a few inconsistencies in the feelings of those managers. »Read more
  Monday, 8 Oct 2007 | 12:38 PM ET

Earnings, Retail Drag Market

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Markets are weak on a couple of concerns today. 1) Lower earnings estimates. The downward earnings revision from Citi, Washington Mutual and Merrill Lynch last week are really having an impact on Q3 earnings revisions. Seven or eight days ago, we were expecting 3.9% earnings growth for the whole S&P 500; today it is down to 0.7%, the lowest growth in five years, and it may still go negative. »Read more

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