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Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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  Tuesday, 23 Apr 2013 | 9:35 AM ET

Pisani: A Good Day for Earnings

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United Technologies

Good day for earnings, big industrials leave full-year guidance unchanged. Of 19 large companies that have reported since the close yesterday, 18 beat earnings expectations, but several—including big multinationals like United Technologies—came in light on the top line.

My biggest fear? That big global industrials reporting today would lower full-year guidance on concerns over global guidance. It did not happen, though several noted the second quarter might be slightly weaker than expected.

Bright spots:

a) Multi-industry: A big day for this group, which makes lots of things (tools, machines, auto parts, pumps, building supplies, heating ventilation and air conditioning, etc.) that are sold to companies all over the world; it's the stuff that's behind the walls of all the buildings and a good indicator of global growth.


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  Monday, 22 Apr 2013 | 1:59 PM ET

Stocks Off Lows, but Multi-Industry Flashes a Warning

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Midday: markets unsure which way to go. Good news to see some cyclicals (Materials, Energy, Tech) trading up; not good to see all 20 Dow Transports down earlier in the day.

Multi-industry flashes a warning. I've said many times that if you want a read on the global economy pay attention to what multi-industry companies are saying. Multi-industry companies make lots of things (tools, machines, pumps, construction equipment, heating ventilation and air conditioning, etc) that are sold to companies all over the world; it's the stuff that's behind the walls of all the buildings and a good indicator of global growth.

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  Monday, 22 Apr 2013 | 9:40 AM ET

A Spring Swoon? Maybe, but Not Likely

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A spring swoon? This is the fourth year in a row we've seen an economic slowdown in the spring. March economic data were a reverse of the stronger data we saw in January and February.

Over the weekend, there was a lot of chatter about whether this was the start of a more serious market correction that the three percent correction in the S&P 500 we have seen in the last two weeks.

Maybe, but a lot of the issues that roiled the markets in the last few years (housing weakness, a European meltdown, etc.) are not present. If China growth—now expected to be 7 percent to 8 percent this year—dropped to zero, that might do it, but that's unlikely.

Remember: The Federal Reserve is now reacting in real time and it can increase or decrease quantitative easing whenever it wants to. That should add some stability to stocks.

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  Friday, 19 Apr 2013 | 10:43 AM ET

Is This Stock Pullback Different Than The Others?

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Dow down 52 points, but S&P 500 up 5 points — huh? IBM is down over $14, responsible for roughly 100 Dow points.

Is this time different? The meager three percent pullback in the S&P 500 at the end of February made a lot of traders believe that any pullback should be bought, but there has been a lot of discussion this week that this pullback might be different. The following arguments are being batted around:

1) the technicals are worse: this week has seen two days (Monday and Wednesday) where 90 percent of the volume was on the downside on very large volume; this has led many to question whether we are still in an up trend in the markets;

2) the macros are different: March and early April economic numbers (Philly Fed) have been weak (this is becoming a regular Spring event);

3) tech is in trouble; Fairchild Semi and Sandisk had notable drops yesterday, IBM is down four percent this morning on its earning miss, and Apple is at a new low 52-week low.

However, it's a little early to draw any conclusions from earnings, other than tech disappointment. Early bank reports (JPMorgan and Wells Fargo) were good, but Bank of America disappointed, and multi-industry company reports have been mixed. General Electric was fair but CEO Jeff Immelt noted ongoing weakness in Europe.

As of this morning,104 companies have reported (21 percent of the S&P 500), with 67 percent beating expectations — slightly above the norm. Earnings are 2.0 percent higher than the same period last year, with revenue outpacing last year by 3.2 percent, according to S&P Capital IQ. However, guidance has been cautious to poor.

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  Thursday, 18 Apr 2013 | 5:25 PM ET

Historic Highs Feel Like Distant Memory: Pisani

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Whew. That was close. For a moment right at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, with the Dow down nearly 120 points, it looked like we were again sinking into the west, and fast ... but the markets turned around.

Friday is an options expiration day, which may account for some of the late-day swing, but let's face it: It was another day when economic reports came in below expectations, this time from the April Philly Fed, and March Leading Indicators.

This is really getting to be a pattern.

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  Thursday, 18 Apr 2013 | 9:36 AM ET

Market's Hot IPO Market Falters. Why?

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Hot initial public offering market falters: Is it the poor markets or just less interest in specific companies.

It's been a pretty hot IPO market recently, with many high-profile names going public.

But last night we had a speed bump in the road: Three IPOs priced, and all three priced below the range.

The most well-known of the three was Intelsat (symbol "I"), the world's largest satellite service operator, which priced 19.3 million shares at $18 a share, well below the share price talk of 21.74 million at $21 to $25. Ugh.

Bottom line: It was looking to raise about $500 million and it raised $347 million. That is a deep, 30 percent discount. You can argue that it is pricing the offering to work; at least it sets the stock up to have a chance at success once it opens, but still.

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  Wednesday, 17 Apr 2013 | 4:15 PM ET

Is This the Start of a Trend Reversal?

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The problem for stocks now is simple: the market has been in an uptrend all year...until Monday...now we have had two big down days...two days with selling on heavy volume....two days with roughly 90 percent of the volume at the NYSE floor to the downside.

That is calling into question whether there still is an uptrend in the stock market...that's relevant because trend followers are an important part of the market and if they determine there is no more upside to the market...the uptrend could become a downtrend.

It was another whipsaw day for stocks...that started ugly right off the bat. The problem: key commodities like copper, aluminum and nickel were again dropping, sitting at essentially 52-week lows, all on concerns about slowing global growth.

Key commodity stocks like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), U.S. Steel (X), and Peabody Energy (BTU) all hit 52-week lows as well.

And while commodity stocks like materials and energy suffered, there were also notable declines in Industrials, and in Financials as Bank of America (BAC) missed earnings estimates, and in technology stocks....tech bellwether Apple (AAPL) hit a new 52-week low on concerns over slowing iPhone and iPad sales.

The markets staged a modest comeback midday,likely on word that progress was being made in the Boston Marathon bombing investigation...but faded going into the close.

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  Wednesday, 17 Apr 2013 | 9:50 AM ET

What Happened at the German Open?

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Hannelore Foerster | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Flash crash in Germany? Well, not quite.

The German DAXX dropped about 180 points in less than 10 minutes just after opening this morning, it's fourth decline in as many days. It was a rapid, unusual decline, and there were plenty of rumors floating around, none of them verified.

France also dropped, now down 1.6 percent, while Germany is down 1.7 percent.

Meanwhile in the ping-pong U.S. stock market—down 234 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Monday, up 160 points on Tuesday—it's not good for active traders. These ping-pong moves strip daily traders from their protection. You can't hedge yourself very easily when the market ping-pongs like this, so what happens is the long-term investor usually ends up doing better than the short-term investor. Of course, you can just get out, but no one is paying you two and 20 to sit in cash.

Elsewhere:

1) Big week for IPOs continues. New York grocer Fairway (symbol "FWM"), which focuses on organic and natural foods, priced 13.7 million shares at $13 each, above the price talk of $10 to $12. The company first filed for an IPO last September, but delayed the offering for months after super storm Sandy, which closed one of the company's store location until just last month. FWM will debut on the Nasdaq and plans to use proceeds to expand store growth.

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  Tuesday, 16 Apr 2013 | 9:56 AM ET

Slowing Growth Signs Everywhere, Not Just in China

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Slowing growth signs are everywhere, not just in China.

You know it's a story when The Wall Street Journal puts it on its front page: "Slower China Growth Signals Days of Miracles Are Waning," chock full of man-on-the-street laments about slowing business in everything from apartments to knife fish.

Still, 7.7 percent first-quarter gross domestic product is hardly a disaster, but you wouldn't know it by the commentary from several analysts, including JPMorgan Chase, Nomura, and Mizuho, all of which lowered estimates for China economic growth. The main takeaway: 7 percent to 8 percent GDP growth is the new normal.

Even South Korea is being affected. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its 2013 and 2014 GDP forecasts for South Korea.

The International Monetary Fund just cut the U.S. and global growth forecast. It now sees full-year U.S. growth at 1.9 percent versus a prior forecast of 2.1 percent in January. The IMF also cut its 2013 world growth estimate to 3.3 percent, down from its January expectation of 3.5 percent.

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  Monday, 15 Apr 2013 | 3:05 PM ET

Who Is the Natural Buyer of Gold Right Now?

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What's next for gold? I never believed the gold bugs who argued that gold would inevitably hit $5,000 an ounce, but I also don't necessarily believe the bears, who seem to believe gold could go right through the floor to, say, $500.

Right now, I see gold 25 percent off its highs...that is not good, but gold went through one of the great bull markets of all time...from $400 in 2005 to over $1,900 toward the end of 2011...so you are still above water if you bought gold before roughly February of 2011.

But still...the strategy of buying gold to protect against central bank printing of money has failed, as least for the moment.

Gold has underperformed the S&P 500 since the March 2009 bottom in the S&P, but particularly since the start of this year, with the S&P 500 up 9.8%, and gold down 22 percent.

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About Trader Talk

Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.
  • A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.

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