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Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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  Wednesday, 13 May 2015 | 10:38 AM ET

April retail sales spell bad news for Q2 GDP

Posted By: Bob Pisani

What happened to retail? It looks sluggish, despite a lot of noise.

April retail sales come in unchanged, below expectations of a 0.2 percent gain.

Remember, this is not a first quarter number. This is second quarter, and retail sales are a significant component of GDP. Look for downward revisions for second quarter GDP.

Read More US retail sales unchanged in April on weak autos, furniture

Bond yields dropped—though later recovered—and the dollar index dropped to its lowest level since February.

Retail Sales are now flat or down four of the last five months.

Retail Sales

  • April: flat
  • March: up 1.1 percent
  • February: down 0.6 percent
  • January: down 0.8 percent
  • December: down 0.9 percent

The pull of Easter spending into March was likely an issue, but what happened to the lower gasoline prices that were supposed to save consumers money?

John Tomlinson at ITG Investment Research notes that gas prices began increasing at the beginning of February, and are up about 25 percent since then. Consumers who live paycheck to paycheck don't notice that gas prices are down year over year, but they do notice how they fluctuate week over week.

Or maybe they were drinking more. Sales at restaurants and bars increased 0.7 percent.

They're definitely ordering online. Receipts at online stores increased 0.8 percent.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 12 May 2015 | 10:01 AM ET

Rising bond yields are giving traders a headache

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Global bond yields are again rising, roiling stock markets in Europe and the United States. The U.S. 10-Year bond yield is at the highest levels since early December, as are German 10-year yields.

If you think the short end of the curve is controlled primarily by the Federal Reserve, the long end is traditionally controlled by expectations about growth and inflation. If you assume modest GDP growth of, say, 2.5 percent, and inflation remaining below the 2 percent Fed target, does that conform with this recent rise in bond yields, with the 10-year at 2.31 percent?

If you believe the market is moving on fundamentals, then the sudden rise seems to imply that the market is pricing in either stronger growth or stronger inflation.

Read MoreBond markets are 'unwinding extremes': Economist

The problem is, it's not clear that the rise is due to fundamental issues in the United States.

There's clearly some influence from European bonds. The yield spread has been decreasing between U.S. and German bonds, creating a relative value spread. Simply put, when the spread narrows there is less value in owning the higher-yielding U.S. debt, so you sell U.S. debt.

There's also liquidity issues: We don't know what the influence is from less inventory available for trade, which may be creating gaps.

There's also some interesting issues for insurers and pension companies. Remember, they need to match their assets with their liabilities.

The higher the yield gets, the more their liability increases, and they need access to assets that can offset those liabilities. If they're unable to access those assets, their pensions become underfunded. So a rise in yields without a corresponding rise in assets creates a problem.

At any rate, the focus will shift to the roughly $64 billion of Treasury debt this week in the form of 3-, 10- and 30-year auctions.

»Read more
  Monday, 11 May 2015 | 3:52 PM ET

Analysts: Earnings will be lousy in Q2—Here's why

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Earnings: Second quarter will not be the same as the first, but analysts don't believe it.

I've been noting the slowly improving picture for earnings in the first quarter, but it's the second quarter outlook that matters.

As we entered the earnings season a month ago, earnings for the S&P 500 were expected to be DOWN roughly 5 percent from the same period last year.

As of Monday, earnings are expected to be UP fractionally, according to Factset.

That's a roughly 6 percentage point turnaround, and it is a big number. It's well-known that analysts usually overshoot on earnings, and usually on the upside, but typically analysts overshoot by roughly 3 percentage points as we enter earnings season, not 6.

This time they overestimated in the wrong direction, and instead of three percentage points too OPTIMISTIC, they were six percentage points too PESSIMISTIC.

What happened? Analysts saw the huge decline in commodity prices at the end of 2014 and drastically took down earnings for the most commodity-sensitive sectors: energy, materials, and industrials.

But they made a mistake: they assumed commodity prices were in for a long-term decline, but that's not what happened. Major commodities like oil, copper and aluminum began bottoming in January.

Commodities in Q2

Crude oil (WTI) up 24%

Nickel up 15%

Copper up 6%

Aluminum up 4%

As a result, stocks in those three sectors have risen off their lows. Indeed, Energy and Materials are the two biggest sector gainers in the S&P 500 in the second quarter, up 5.2 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.

Unfortunately, it looks like analysts have the same attitude they did in the second quarter as they did in the first—they are still too pessimistic and too slow to change their numbers.

Earnings are expected to be down 4.3 percent for the second quarter, and are still coming down. On March 31, they were expected to be down 2.2 percent.

OK, that's only a spread of two percentage points, but they are still coming down, even as stocks have recovered from the earnings worries.

Two lessons here:

1) When it comes to who you should be watching, watch the markets over the analysts.

2) It's true that low commodity prices—like low oil—are good for consumers, but higher commodity prices—wthin reason—are good for stocks overall, though certain sectors (airlines) will be negatively impacted.

»Read more
  Monday, 11 May 2015 | 10:21 AM ET

Traders look to retailers to move markets to highs

Posted By: Bob Pisani

With the S&P 500 only a point or two from another historic closing high, the question has been, "What would decisively bring us into new high territory?"

It's not that no one believes we can do it. Over the weekend, two market watchers reiterated their basically optimistic view of stocks. Dan Greenhaus at BTIG said the bias for stocks remains to the upside, while Jeff Saut at Raymond James went even further, saying an upside breakout is coming.

Short-term, a lot may depend on what retailers are saying, because they begin reporting this week. Macy's and JC Penney report on Wednesday, followed by Nordstrom and Kohl's on Thursday and Gap next week.

With the exception of Macy's, retailers have been big laggards this quarter:

Q1 retail stock performance (as of Friday's close)

  • Gap: down 8.9 percent
  • Nordstrom: down 3.8 percent
  • Kohl's: down 5.1 percent
  • Macy's: up 1.6 percent

No one is expecting too much, since what guidance that has been provided has been very cautious.

We also get April retail sales this week. The hope is that the pickup that began in March will continue into April, but it was an ugly winter:

Retail sales

  • April (est.): up 0.2 percent
  • March: up 0.9 percent
  • February: down 0.6 percent
  • January: down 0.8 percent
  • December: down 0.9 percent

The bottom line: Consumers seem to be spending money on cars, student loans, electronics and dining—but not on retail in general.

The hope among bulls is that because retailers have been such laggards, any positive indications from them about a pickup in April sales will pop the stocks. (Remember, their quarter ends in April, not March.)

»Read more
  Friday, 8 May 2015 | 4:36 PM ET

Pisani: Strong rally, but short of breaking out

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Friday saw a strong, broad rally that for the most part has held its early-morning gains. Four stocks advanced for every one declining; eight of the 10 S&P 500 sectors rose more than 1 percent.

Why are bond yields down today and not continuing the rally we saw all week? It goes back to that "Goldilocks" idea, just strong enough to indicate that the job market is back on track, but not so strong to scare anyone into thinking that June is the likely month for the Fed to hike rates.

The lower yields were a help to homebuilders, building materials and REITs—all interest-rate sensitive sectors—though that outperformance faded a bit late in the day.

Here's the conundrum for stocks: the Fed can't easily raise rates because of the weak economy.

But the markets can't break out because of the weak economy.

And that's where we are: back up to the top end of the trading range. We've been here before, with no follow through.

For bears and skeptics in general, it's hard to see a major breakout with stretched valuations, mediocre earnings and the Fed raising rates.

One thing's for sure: the key level everyone is watching is roughly 2,120 on the S&P 500. We closed at 2,116. Short again!


»Read more
  Friday, 8 May 2015 | 10:00 AM ET

Jobs report takeaway: Q1 weakness might be isolated

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

S&P futures moved almost 10 points on the April nonfarm payroll report of 223,000, essentially in line with expectations of 224,000. March revised down 39,000 to 85,000. Broad rally at the open.

Bottom line: March weakness is being ignored, and at least there is no "bleed-through" into the second quarter. June is still unlikely for a rate-hike, but September is more and more likely.

Read MoreRebound: US economy adds 223K jobs in April

Not only did U.S. stocks move up, all the European bourses moved up on that news as well. The dollar bounced around but is generally weaker.

Elsewhere:

1) It's been an ugly week for China, but overnight the Shenzhen index was up 4 percent and Shanghai rose 2 percent, as Beijing approved a trading link between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock exchange, which would add to the already existing link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. It should be in operation by the fourth quarter of this year, according to Barron's. After a slow start in November, the existing Shanghai-Hong Kong link has seen explosive traffic in recent months.

2) I wrote Thursday that the IPO market has hit a rough patch, with many biotech IPOs trading below their initial prices. Today, the slowdown is confirmed: Six IPOs scheduled to price didn't make it public this week, including Commercial Credit, International Market Centers and a raft of biotech/pharmaceuticals:

What's going on? You could blame it on the old standby, "market conditions," but the biotech sector play, which has been so strong for the last year, appears to have had its run, at least for the moment.

One bright spot is that Southern restaurant chain Bojangles made it in, pricing at $19. That's a victory, considering original price talk was $15-$17, then raised to $18-$19.

»Read more
  Thursday, 7 May 2015 | 5:35 PM ET

Pisani: Markets shrug at big week of biotech IPOs

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange.

Are biotech stocks topping out? I don't know, but I'm getting suspicious. First, the biotech ETFs (IBB, XBI) topped out at the end of April.

But that isn't the only warning sign. What's bugging me is the biotech IPO market has just gone to hell this week.

I know, that's a strong claim, but look what has happened with these biotechs, all of which went public this week:

1) OpGen, was set to price in a range from $8-$10, priced at $6 (!), now trading at $4.66.

2) CoLucid (CLCD), set to priced in a range of $13-$15, priced at $10 (!), trading at $8.19.

3) Adaptimmune Therapeutics, set to price in a range of $15-$17, priced at $17 and was trading below $16 this morning before rising in the late afternoon.

4) Collegium Pharma, price talk $12-$14, priced at $12, trading at $12.30

5) HTG Molecular Diagnostics , price talk $13-$15, priced at $14, was trading at $13 this morning before rising later in the afternoon.

6) TYR PHarma priced at the midpoint of $14, now trading at $14.61. But a measly 4 percent rise is practically a shrug.

Ugh. The market is saying that it doesn't want a lot of biotechs at the moment.

Wait, it gets worse. Several others were scheduled to price earlier this week and have not yet made it to market: Gelesis (GLSS) and MultiVir (MVIR). Not sure what will happen with them.

Another—KLOX Technologies (KLOX)—was postponed.

Another, Anterios (ANTE), is scheduled to price tonight, seeking to raise 3.9 million shares at $12-$14.

Is this the start of a new phase of investor skittishness? They do seem to be resisting the urge to buy companies that don't have much in the way of revenues and earnings, but I doubt this is the start of another biotech debacle. For the most part, these companies have real science and real big pharma companies behind them.

Unfortunately, the owners may have inflated ideas of the valuation.

Come to think of it, the IPO market in general isn't as hot as it used to be. The Renaissance Capital IPO ETF (IPO), a basket of the last 60 or so IPOs, hit an historic high at the end of April and is down about 4 percent since then.

This all makes me long for a simple, understandable IPO, and we are getting it: Bojangles (BOJA), the southern restaurant chain, is pricing tonight, and there is interest: originally pricing between $15 and $17, now $18-$19.

And we have Fitbit also announcing it will price on the NYSE.


»Read more
  Thursday, 7 May 2015 | 7:54 AM ET

SEC Oks change in how small-cap stocks are traded

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Penny on a stock growth chart
spxChrome | Getty Images

Late last night, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a long-awaited program to trade small-cap stocks (less than $3 billion in market capitalization) in increments of five cents, rather than a penny.

This plan has been under discussion for years. Ever since trading increments went from sixteenths ($0.0625) to a penny in 2000, traders have argued that small-cap stocks have seen less trading. Widening the spread, some say, will allow more incentive to trade small-cap stocks and may also increase analyst coverage, drawing more attention to stocks that would otherwise languish.

Others doubt it will make much of a difference.

Read MoreInvestor alert: S&P just passed a very rare marker

The plan as approved divides the small-cap universe into three separate test groups, with 400 stocks in each group.

The first test group has minimum five-cent trading increment, with no exceptions. The second group would have some exceptions, such as allowing orders to be executed at the midpoint between buy and sell orders.

The third group is the most controversial: It will require that off-exchange trading platforms (dark pools, mostly) provide price improvement compared with the current best orders in the market. This "trade-at" rule is designed to prevent orders from going to dark pools and has been championed by exchanges, which are the obvious beneficiaries.

A fourth control group of stocks would see no change to their quoting and trading.

The program will last two years.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 6 May 2015 | 5:21 PM ET

Pisani: Traders still troubled by bond yields

Posted By: Bob Pisani
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Stocks dropped again Wednesday, and traders continued to have trouble digesting a rise in bond yields.

Those yields have been rising for several days, and on Wednesday, 10-year yields rose to their highest levels since early March.

Yields rose despite a disappointing report from ADP, which is a measure of private-sector job growth.

That report implies Friday's nonfarm payroll report might be weaker than expected, which would normally drive down bond yields because it would likely delay the moment when the Fed raises short-term interest rates.

What's driving this yield rally? First, commodities, particularly oil but also copper and other base metals, have been rising recently. That's fueling inflation worries.

Another issue is what's going on with European bonds. German bond yields, for example, have recently gone from 15 or so basis points to 50 basis points as big bond players like Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach have been saying German bund yields were a big short.

That rapid and violent rise means that other global bond yields had to respond.

There's also been a big unwind of some very successful trades. Remember that traders have made a lot of money this year on several positions: 1) long the dollar, 2) short the euro, 3) short oil, and 4) long European equities, particularly Germany.

All of this is continuing to come unwound. Today, the dollar was weaker, the euro is at its highest levels since February, oil hit its highest level in a year, and German stocks hit their highs a month ago and are off 8 percent.

Result: interest rate sensitive groups like Utilities, Telecom and REITs all underperformed Wednesday.

There was also much heavier than normal volume in long Treasury bond ETFs, particularly those that are short the Treasury market, as well as high yield bond funds.

»Read more
  Tuesday, 5 May 2015 | 4:58 PM ET

'Flash crash' 5 years later: What have we learned?

Posted By: Bob Pisani

Let's not dwell on who caused the "flash crash." Can we just agree that it wasn't one person, that it was likely caused by a confluence of events?

Good. Then we can concentrate on more interesting issues: can it happen again? What changes have been made and what further changes ought to be made?

Can it happen again? Sure it could, but the chances that it would happen in the manner it happened have been reduced. Here's why:

1) Stocks cannot go to a penny like they did on that day. One of the most damaging developments was to see, for example, Accenture go from $40 to $0.01, Boston Beer go from the $60s to $0.01 (all off of the NYSE floor). These "stub quotes" were never meant to be serious bids; they were merely placeholders for market makers. One of the first actions regulators took was to ban these "stub quotes." Now, market makers have to post bids and offers within 8 percent of the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO).

2) New circuit breakers halt individual stocks if there are sudden price swings. Five years ago, each exchange had its own rules that governed when individual stocks would be halted for sudden volatility. This confusing mishmash has been eliminated: there are now consistent system-wide circuit breakers for all individual stocks (known as limit up/limit down), as well as revised market-wide circuit breakers that will kick in when the S&P 500 drops 7 percent or more during the trading day.

»Read more

About Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

  • Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.

 

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    A CNBC reporter since 1990, Bob Pisani covers Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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