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China June Flash HSBC PMI Falls to 9-Month Low

Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

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  Monday, 17 Jun 2013 | 9:34 AM ET

When Doves Cry: Can Bernanke Calm 'Taper' Tantrum?

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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke

The market chatter over the weekend was all about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. More specifically, sentiment centers around one question: will Bernanke try to calm the markets by pushing a more dovish position on bond-buying?

Why? Most feel that Bernanke is likely pleased with the 60 basis point or so rise in 10-year interest rates in the last six weeks: just enough to take some air out of Treasury price deflation, not enough to have everyone scream that the economy is slowing, or that 4 percent mortgage rates will crush the housing recovery.

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  Friday, 14 Jun 2013 | 5:15 PM ET

Whoa, Immortality by 2035? Mind-Blowing Investing

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Immortality by 2035?
Dmitry Itskov, a Russian multimillionaire, wants to build lifelike copies of humans by 2035 that could eventually be uploaded with the contents of a real human brain. With CNBC's Bob Pisani.

How's this for a weekend conference: Some of the smartest people in the world are gathering in New York to try to figure out how to build lifelike copies of humans ... to be eventually uploaded with the contents of a real human brain.

It's the brainchild of a Russian multimillionaire, Dmitry Itskov. ... And he says he's perfectly serious, and that it could be accomplished by 2035.

Crazy? The New York Times gave Itskov a front-page profile on its Sunday Business page a week and a half ago.

Imagine this ... a digital copy of your brain in a different life form that could live for hundreds of years and be replaced.

(Read More: Russian Tycoon Aims to Make Immortality a Reality Using Robots)

There are several stages to his proposal, including an early stage (Avatar A) where lifelike avatars (androids) are created, but without an actual brain in them. Instead, you would be able to mentally "occupy" the avatar and would have the same sensations.

If you have ever seen the 2009 movie "Surrogates" with Bruce Willis, this is the first stage. Willis remotely moves around an android that is an optimized version of himself. He is in a darkened room and has a live telepresence of that avatar, including all senses.

Dmitry says that we could have the first phase—that will enable people to operate a nonbiological body—in the next seven years. And he believes that the concept can be proved viable in the next three years. He is talking about an artificial body with sensations—the sensation that you would be walking in the body.

The next phase (Avatar B) is brain transplantation. Instead of your dying, neurosurgeons isolate the brain and some of the spinal chord, put it in a life support system, and that is inserted into the android developed in Avatar A. The timetable: 2020-25.

In the next phase (Avatar C), you make the brain non-biological by uploading it into a computer. The timetable: 2030-35.

Sounds crazy? One of the speakers, Theodore Berger, will show how he has already replaced the hippocampus—the part of the brain most heavily associated with memory—of a rat with a computer chip. Berger has shown that rats so implanted can have a memory without the original biological component.


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  Friday, 14 Jun 2013 | 9:50 AM ET

Stock Funds See Day in the Sun as Bonds Suffer

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Pascal Preti | Photolibrary | Getty Images
The NYSE on Wall Street.

Despite the market turmoil of the last couple weeks, stock mutual funds have recorded their 23rd straight week of inflows, according to Lipper. International funds--particularly ETF international funds--have seen outflows, due to an exodus of money from emerging markets.

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  Thursday, 13 Jun 2013 | 12:46 PM ET

Trader Talk: The Trend Reversal Happening Now

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Trend reversal: Yen strong, but U.S.stocks holding up midday. That's a trend reversal: U.S. stocks have moved very closely with the Yen for the past several weeks. S&P Futures did pop up on the better-than-expected jobs and May Retail sales data.

Bernanke press conference June 19th: there's only three press conferences for Bernanke left this year: June 19, September, and December.

He is likely pleased that his trial balloon on tapering has initiated such turmoil...he must be somewhat pleased some are taking risk off the table, as some markets were heading toward a bubble (Japan and the yen carry trade) and are now clearly deflating. What next: does he calm things down or does he stoke the fire?

He seems to be in a better position, at least with today's data. After all, better to have the economy recovering with some tapering, rather than economy tanking with no tapering.

The debacle in Japan: what happened? I woke up at 5:30 a.m. ET and tried to find out what happened to cause the markets there to drop six percent, and no one could give me a clear answer.

World Bank cuts global GDP growth? Maybe.

Prime Minister Abe met with the head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Kuroda. Mr. Kuroda said nothing, essentially signalling that he has done enough for the moment.

That is likely the source of the problem. Remember when ECB head Mario Draghi made his famous comment about supporting the euro and the Eurozone: "whatever it takes," he said.

And the markets immediately calmed down.

Mr. Kuroda needs a Draghi moment--he needs to say "whatever it takes" and he hasn't--yet.

No, this is an unwind of a crowded trade (the yen carry trade) and collateral other trades. The selloff in the Nikkei was very broad--everything from tech to healthcare to consumer services.

The IPO market is improving. IPOs have a real problem: they're always playing catch up with the market. You need the wind at your back to get an IPO out, and market conditions on the day it comes out can also influence your first day of trading.

Just look at cosmetics and fragrance maker COTY (COTY), which went public today at $17.50, opened at $17.50, and promptly dropped below that price. We know this: demand was strong yesterday, in fact it was well oversubscribed.

But the IPO biz relies on those who don't get the allocation they wanted to buy on the open, and that sentiment can be very fragile--particularly on days when the markets are in turmoil...and particularly when you have the Nikkei down 6 percent overnight.

Still: it's been a good start to the year.

Offerings this year:

  • 2013: 80
  • 2012: 78
  • Above Initial Price: 71%
  • Average Price Gain: 22%

Source: IPO Scoop

Not bad, particularly with 71 percent above the initial price. And June is starting out strong: last year four deals priced in June, we've already had four this June, with the calendar filling up very quickly

Of course, it all depends on market conditions!

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  Thursday, 13 Jun 2013 | 8:49 AM ET

Bond Funds Begin an Ugliest Dog Competition

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M. Lorenz Photography | Flickr | Getty Images

What to do with your bond and emerging market funds? It's the question I've been asked most often in the past two weeks. With further declines in prices today, it's starting to look ugly. The numbers look since the beginning of May certainly aren't pretty:

Emerging Market Debt ETF: down 9.8 percent.

Emerging Markets ETF: off 9.7 percent.

Total Bond ETF: slides 3.0 percent

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  Wednesday, 12 Jun 2013 | 9:42 AM ET

Greece Downgraded Again -- Just Not How You Think

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One of the biggest names in market indexes just dropped a bit of a bombshell: according to them, Greece is now an emerging market country!

There's plenty of worries about capital outflows from emerging markets, but here's a curve ball: last night MSCI, the leader in stock indexes, announced that Greece will now be designated an "emerging market."


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  Tuesday, 11 Jun 2013 | 3:41 PM ET

More Volatility for Stocks, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange

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It's not complicated: the market is trying to figure out the right level for interest rates now that it appears there will be less central bank support in the future.

This choppiness is causing a real problem for active investors--they keep getting their heads--and other body parts--chopped off in the whipsaw action.

"I keep trying to short the market, and they keep jamming it up my a--," one disgusted trader said.

Don't kid yourself: there is far more damage to the market than the Dow Industrial Average indicates. I see about 2,500 stocks down, 500 up--a 5 to 1 declining/advancing ratio.

The problem is that the global economic recovery is very fragile, and it cannot withstand a sudden dramatic move up in interest rates. Even the relatively modest moves up in interest rates in the past few weeks have caused a flutter in global markets.

More and more, Bernanke's May 22nd testimony in front of Congress, where he discussed the possibility the Fed may taper bond purchases some time in the next few meetings--and the release of the FOMC minutes that day--has become at least a short-term "inflection point" for the market.

Specifically, an inflection point for interest rates: yields on the 10-Year Treasury have risen from roughly 1.9 percent to 2.2 percent in those three weeks. That day, the S&P 500 hit a historic high, and while it is off those highs bond funds have suffered considerable more damage since May 22:


These higher interest rates are a particular problem for emerging markets, since they crimp investment and cause some "flight to quality."

I know the world is focused on the turmoil in Turkey, but other emerging markets have also dropped as interest rates have risen.

Emerging markets since May 22...


Japan is still influencing the U.S. After months of weakening, the Yen has strengthened against the U.S. Dollar since May 22, and it did so again midday, causing our markets to take another leg down.

Since May 22, the Yen has strengthened about eight percent against the U.S. Dollar.

That doesn't fully describe what is going on: it's the leverage that matters. The Yen trade has HUGE leverage in it, so when this trade unwinds--as it is doing to an extent now--it affects a lot of other areas of the market as traders cover positions.

At least there was a likely headline for today's rally in the Yen: traders cited the "Nikkei News" reporting that Japanese authorities plan to adopt a bail-in policy for failing banks, to force losses on investors if necessary.

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  Tuesday, 11 Jun 2013 | 9:44 AM ET

No Great Rotation, But You Can't Tell From Yields

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Traders in the 30-year bond options pit in Chicago.

The Great Rotation may not yet consist of a mass rush out of bonds, but wait until investors see their quarterly statements.

It's another morning of rising rates, following on yesterday's jump. It would help the markets to see some stability.

Higher interest rates on top of a very fragile global recovery is a recipe for falling back into no-growth.


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  Monday, 10 Jun 2013 | 10:14 AM ET

S&P Sees Better Days in US, Injects Cheer in Market

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U.S. stocks popped at the market open, on word that Standard & Poor's affirmed the United States' debt ratings, and revised its outlook to "stable" from "negative" on receding credit risks.

This is an important development. We spent the whole summer of 2011 in turmoil when S&P lowered its outlook. If you thought the downgrade was a big deal, the reverse has to be as well.

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  Friday, 7 Jun 2013 | 9:46 AM ET

Goldilocks US Jobs Data Keep 'Taper' Talk Alive

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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke

At 175,000, May nonfarm payrolls were slightly above expectations of 169,000, and private payrolls were decent at 179,000. A decent report, certainly — yet the prior month's figures were revised downward by 19,000.

This seems consistent with a modestly improving jobs outlook: stocks rose at the open, while bond yields moved up.

Bottom line: this is just strong enough for Federal Reserve officials to continue their talk of tapering of bond purchases.

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About Trader Talk with Bob Pisani

Direct from the floor of the NYSE, Trader Talk with Bob Pisani provides a dynamic look at the reasons for the day’s actions on Wall Street. If you want to go beyond the latest numbers— Bob will tell you why the market does what it does and what it means for the next day’s trading.

 

  • A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.

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