Thursday's wild action could draw some buyers into the stock market Friday.

But traders warn it could be another volatile day, and there will certainly be investors who use Thursday's gains to take profits.

Before the bell, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in Frankfurt, Germany, starting at 8:30 a.m. Bernanke will participate in a panel discussion with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on "International Interdependencies and Monetary Policy." Meanwhile, in Washington, leaders of G20 countries gather for a summit on the global financial crises.

Economic news Friday includes retail sales for October and import prices, reported at 8:30 a.m. Business inventories and consumer sentiment are released at 10 a.m.

J.C. Penney and Abercrombie and Fitchreport earnings, following a string of disappointing retailers' reports this week. Both Nordstrom and Kohl's issued warnings when they reported sharply lower earnings after Thursday's bell.

Markets Mayhem

Stocks Thursday made a 10 percent intraday journey from trough to peak before finishing with a nearly 7 percent gain. The Dow finished up 552 points at 8835, and the S&P 500 was up 58.99 at 911.29, again of 6.9 percent. Just after midday, the S&P fell through the closely watched 839 level reached on October 10. As it sprang back, the entire market moved higher.

"The breakdown through the old lows in the S&P could cause capitulation," said Tim Smalls of Execution LLC.

"When they reversed, I think that was a big part of it (the rally)," said Smalls. " As soon as they broke the low on the S&P, but held the low on the Dow, a lot of people put some money in."

"It was also more that the selling stopped than that the buying started. If you look at the intraday volumes, they were not huge to the buy side until this afternoon," he said. Smalls said it seems a lot of the selling from hedge fund redemptions expected this week may have already happened. Investors in many hedge funds must request withdraws for year end by Saturday.

Traders said the tone of President Bush's economic speech mid afternoon was viewed as a surprising positive by the market. On the eve of the G20 meeting, where the idea of a global financial regulatory structure will be discussed, he warned about too much regulation of financial markets.

G20something

Generation Y will be at the table for the first time this weekend when G20 gathers in Washington. There is something, clearly historic, but also sobering about the idea of the leaders of 20 nations, developed and developing, gathering to discuss a financial problem that could only have become as deep and entwined by the rapid globalization of the last 20 years.

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The BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - met ahead of the meeting and issued a joint position calling for reform of institutions like the International Monetary Fund to reflect the growing importance of developing economies.

Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, will appear on "Squawk Box" Friday, but in a phone interview ahead of that he said he doesn't expect any major action on a new global financial regulatory architecture. But he does see the group launching working groups that will tackle the ideas of financial markets regulation and transparency, among other issues.

"It underscores the fact that countries recognize the need to develop harmonious approaches to addressing this crisis and that is a huge difference between now and the 1930s when, as you may recall, many countries engaged in a whole series of beggar thy neighbor policies," such as protectionism and harmful exchange rate moves, he said. "By these harmful actions, they made the depression a whole lot worse than it might otherwise have been."

Significant, too, is that the developing nations have equal seats at the table, along side G7 countries. Those countries have a big stake in the outcome and will work to be part of the solution. "If there is conflict among countries in the way they address this, it will badly undermine the resolution process and make troubled markets that much more traumatized," he said.

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Financial markets are not pinning much hope on any major outcome of the meeting, but there are expectations that this is the first in a series of meetings. "This is really the launch of something that's going to continue into the next Administration and that's why nothing concrete can be agreed on, but that's not bad," he said.

Hormats also expects the IMF to play a bigger part in the global crises than would have been expected several months back. CNBC's Steve Liesman reported Thursday that one development from G20 may be that creditor nations, like China and Saudi Arabia, could pledge hundreds of billions of dollars to support aid programs for countries hurt by the credit crises. An IMF source told Liesman this would supplement IMF resources.

"Several months ago, it was fashionable to say the IMF was moribund, doing nothing. It ain't so now," Hormats said. He pointed to the recent announcement by IMF that it would provide liquidity to countries that have sound policies but have problems stemming from the credit crises. "They are playing a more important role. One constructive objective of this meeting would be to help support them in that role, which means more resources, but it also means adjusting their role so that they can do a better job ... They never played this role in terms of providing liquidity."

IMF was formed out of the 1944 Bretton Woods conference, as was the World Bank. This weekend's summit is being billed as a second Bretton Woods, but clearly one month of planning ahead of this meeting will not produce the results that were two years in the making in the 1940s.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

The painful selling in stocks has been so consistent this week, it's no surprise that some traders say the market could test October's lows before the week is over.

Intel's after-the-bell warning Wednesday will pressure tech names and the broader market Thursday morning. Intel says its fourth quarter business is below expectations , and its revenues are now expected to be $9 billion, more than 10 percent lower than expected. The warning sends ripples through tech but also raises concerns about business spending, a big driver of the economy.

Art Cashin of UBS says Thursday and Friday will be critical days for the market, and there could be a major move by the weekend.

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Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, wrote in his daily note Wednesday: "Markets remain nervous and range-bound. Since the 10/10 lows, they are trading a semi-rectangular pattern (the rectangle's altitude is compressing). It all hints that we're building to something major. Lots of fingers, cycles and models zero in on Thursday and Friday."

On Wednesday afternoon, as the stock market headed into the final minutes of trading, Cashin said in a phone interview that those two days are key for lots of reasons. "Even the stargazers got into the act," he said. Will stocks test the lows this week? "It's setting up for that. The last two days of the week are target days," he said.

One reason for selling pressure in the market is the real and feared redemptions from hedge funds. Saturday is the date by which investors in many hedge funds must decide whether they want to withdraw funds at year end.

Thursday Look Ahead

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims data and international trade are reported at 8:30 a.m.

A major earnings report from Wal-Martis expected before the bell. Retailers Kohl's and Nordstrom also report. Traders will be watching those retailers closely after negative comments from Best Buy and Macy'son Wednesday.

Markets Mayhem

Stocks lost about 5 percent Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 46 points to 852.30 and the Dow tumbling 411 points to 8,282 . Traders point to the negative forecast from Best Buy for helping add fuel to the sell off. Best Buy says its sales will be down, and this is the most difficult environment it's ever seen. Those comments weren't the only factor though.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson spooked the market when he discussed the $700 billion Treasury Asset Relief Program. He said that the TARP's mission changed by the time it got Congressional approval. It turned into an instrument to inject capital into banks rather than to purchase distressed assets. Traders said those comments, while not unexpected, weighed on confidence.

Paulson also said autos would not qualify for the TARP, but Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass. said Congress would discuss a new bailout for auto makers next week. The threatened failure of one or more of the big three has been a drag on the market.

The dollar continued its rally against the euro, as commodities and energy continued to move lower. Oil tumbled another 5.3 percent or $3.17 per barrel to $56.16. Stock traders say the lack of buying in oil has also been weighing on market psychology. They see the decline in crude as a vote that the global economy is losing steam at a rapid pace.

The dollar was at $1.2480 per euro, up 0.4 percent on the day.

Getting Technical

Scott Redler of T3Capital.com is one who thinks stocks could test October lows very shortly. The Oct. 10 intraday lows of 7,882 on the Dow and 839.80 on the S&P 500 are the levels to watch.

"Last time we were down here when the Dow was at 8,143... basically there wasn't enough weakness for it to test the lows and break the lows. We then had the election rally, and the shorts had to cover," said Redler.

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"If we pierce the intraday lows, some people who have stocks that are already in pain can't hold onto them. That's where they have to sell because they don't know if we're going to go to 7,600, 7,300, or 7,100. That's when the loose hands have to give up and throw in the towel. By breaking the lows and having that cascading effect, that cleans out that last level of investors that just cannot hold onto stocks. They keep selling every time we're up just to clean up their positions," said Redler.

How Cheap is Cheap

In the latest wipeout, some stocks are getting to levels that traders can't help but point out for the sheer shock value. One of those on Wednesday was Citicorp , which broke below $10. Google was another. Just less than a year after it soared over $700, it was trading below $300, a level it hasn't seen since 2005.

What Else to Watch

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks on the economy at 12 p.m., and Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern is expected to speak at 2 p.m.

Investors can also watch as hedge funds are dragged before the House Oversight Committee which will hear from some heavyweights of the industry including John Paulson, Ken Griffin and George Soros, plus a panel of academics.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

Stocks are stuck in the bear market's tight grip and just can't shake loose, even for seemingly good news.

"The market will feel bad until it's not bad. I think that's the phase we're in. We went through the phase where everything looked cheap. That didn't work out so now we're in the phase of: 'I'm not going to buy it because I want to see the news first,'" said Robert Harrington of UBS.

Even with good news Tuesday, the market rallied, then sold off going into the closing bell as economic worries won out. Stocks had been moving up around the Federal Housing Finance Agency's announcement of a new plan to renegotiate hundreds of thousands of delinquent mortgage loans held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan comes as major banks work to renegotiate troubled loans in their own portfolios.

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Stocks staged a midday rally, with the Dow recovering to near breakeven from a decline of about 300 points. Traders said the FHFA plan was perceived as a positive because it would help the beaten down housing market and stave off more foreclosures. But the rally was short lived, and the Dow fell 176 to close at 8693, a decline of about 2 percent. The S&P 500 fell 20 or 2.2 percent to 898.95.

On Monday, stocks reversed early gains from China's stimulus package and instead fretted over negative headlines.

"The credit market is liquid because of the Fed and central banks, but we really haven't crossed over into that world of confidence again and we may not for a long time," said Harrington, head of block trading at UBS.

On Wednesday, investors will get earnings from Macy's ahead of the bell. Investors may also focus on late Tuesday comments from Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein who said the company plans to focus on its strategy and that it is well positioned to deal with the current environment.

There is no significant economic data Wednesday, but there are several speeches worth watching.

Bailout Blues

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson speaks at 10:30 a.m. about the TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Meanwhile, Democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi Tuesday afternoon called for aid that would stretch the TARP over the troubled auto industry . The health of struggling auto makers is a new phobia for the markets, which worry a bankruptcy of any of the big three would cause significant ripples through the economy.

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How TARP funds will be used has been a big topic of interest as traders try to game which companies will receive funds and what the government aid will do in terms of fixing the broken economy and credit markets.

"We never threw money at a situation like this before so reading the tea leaves is not so easy," Harrington said.

Other speakers Wednesday include Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn who speaks in Luxembourg at 11 a.m. on productivity and innovation in financial services. Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern speaks to the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable at 1 p.m.

The House Financial Services committee will hold a hearing on private sector cooperation with mortgage modifications, which will be attended by executives form Bank of America and J.P. Morgan.

Oil Drill

In Tuesday trading, materials and energy stocks were the worst performers, down 4 and 3 percent respectively. The dollar gained 1.68 percent against the euro, taking it to $1.2528 per euro.

Crude oil on the NYMEX fell $3.08 per barrel, or nearly 5 percent, to $59.33, the lowest close since March, 2007. RBOB gasoline futures fell 4.5 percent to $1.3059.

Like anxious relatives in a hospital room, investors have been watching the economy get sicker and sicker with new symptoms surfacing daily.

Friday's jobs report goes right to the heart of what's ailing the markets.

It's the fear that the economy is weaker than many are forecasting—and rising unemployment will only make it worse.

Thursday's chain store sales numbers could set the tone for a market obsessed with the weakening economy.

The October sales reports from retailers are expected to show steep declines - the impact of an American consumer that has gone on a spending strike. Weekly jobless claims data is also released ahead of the open, at 8:30 a.m. as are productivity and costs.

Thomson Reuters expects its chain store sales index to decline by 0.3 percent for October, the lowest level in its eight year history. Department stores are expected to see an overall drop of 10.9 percent. Teen apparel is expected to be off by 5.6 percent, but discounters are expected to be up 1.4 percent. Widely watched Wal-mart is expected to report a sales gain of 1.6 percent.

Another factor that could weigh on stocks was Cisco's disappointing earnings comment . Cisco said that its revenues could fall as much as 10 percent in the current quarter as the economic slowdown spreads through Europe and Asia. Its stock fell in the after hours session Wednesday.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's historic victory can't help but be a positive for markets, even if briefly.

American voters cast their ballots for change, and as they voted in the presidential election, they made it clear they were unhappy with the economy, upset about their personal finances and looking for a government that will handle the financial crises differently. They also elected an African American to the highest office for the first time, an event that should energize some of the U.S. population, which historically has thrived on and gains confidence from the belief that all Americans can succeed.

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But investors will soon focus back on the economy and what the President-elect will do to tackle its many problems. The markets may also gain temporary relief from the fact that a long, contentious campaign is over.

Wall Street traditionally fears Democratic policies and in the case of Obama, it fears his tax proposals. But plenty of pundits have been saying that his tax plans may be put on hold because of the struggling economy.

"Obama's got to come out of the box very strongly," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Stanford Financial Group. He said Obama needs to get an economic summit together immediately and set the groundwork for the Nov. 15 meeting with world leaders on the financial crises.

Valliere said he expects Obama to move quickly on identifying a Treasury secretary. He said New York Fed's Tim Geithner would be a top candidate, followed by former Clinton Administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Wednesday Look Ahead

Valliere said he expects the market to very shortly turn its focus to Friday's jobs report, expected to show a worsening employment picture. Data expected Wednesday includes the ADP employment report, released at 8:15 a.m., and ISM nonmanufacturing data, reported at 10 a.m.

Stocks could drift for a second day Tuesday as voters head to the polls to cast their votes for the 44th president of the United States.

"I think this is another piece on the good pile," said Jim Pauslen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "Whoever wins, there's going to be a sense that we're turning the page."

Stocks were nearly unchanged Monday after trading in a relatively tight range. The Dow was down 5.18 at 9319.83, and the S&P 500 was down 2.44 at 966.31. Paulsen noted the stock market has not traded with volatility this low since early September. For one day, gone were the triple digit Dow moves of October.

Confidence Building

"There is a great importance to this election. I think a lot of what we've dealt with in the last six weeks has to do with how we sold TARP (the financial bailout)," said Paulsen. He said people became scared as major leaders kept saying how dire the situation had become.

"I do think for that reason this thing could have more impact than it may normally. I don't think Democrat or Republican is that important near term," said Paulsen. He said if Democrat Sen. Barack Obama wins, there may not initially be the typical type of fears about Democratic spending because of the huge cost and extraordinary steps the government is taking to fix financial markets and the banking industry.

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"Does anyone think they're going to do a lot of tax raising now?" he said. "Normally, you'd worry about excessive government spending." He said those issues and concerns could come back in the future, but for now, the focus is on the sick state of the financial markets and economy.

Paulsen said there's a sense that Obama has won, but if Sen. John McCain manages an upset or if the race is very tight, the market could react negatively because of the uncertainty factor.

What if the Democrats sweep Congress, as some pundits say could happen. Some traders say that would be a negative. "That might have some play to it. That could have some negativism to it," Paulsen said. "I just don't see that's the overwhelming driver of this market right now."

Has the Market Bottomed?

Citigroup chief equities strategist Tobias Levkovich, in a note Monday, said it seems possible the stock market has bottomed. "Since 1929, the mean decline for the S&P 500 during bear markets is 36.5 percent. Given that the market already has dropped nearly 46 percent from peak-to-trough, it seems possible that the equity market may have bottomed," he wrote.

Levkovich said investors are wondering who the buyers will be for stocks. Institutions are nervous and there's anecdotal evidence from financial advisors that individual investors are getting out of the market. "While we know that there is a great deal of cash on the sidelines, it is unclear what the specific catalysts will be, igniting the internal fortitude to step up and buy stocks. Yet, within the current context of valuation and confidence measures, history argues more to be positive than we ever could," he said.

Paulsen said he thinks we've probably seen the worst. "I think the downside risk from here is very limited ... Not to say we couldn't go back to test those lows again. We very well could. I just think a 50 percent retrenchment discounts the worst case recession scenario," he said.

Econorama

There's not much on the data front, and the next big event will the jobs data on Friday. On Tuesday, factory orders are released at 10 a.m. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on economic challenges at 10:45 p.m.

Monday's markets digested a lot of signals on the economy, most of them bad. For one, car makers released October sales data, showing the biggest decline in more than two decades. The ISM survey showed national factory activity fell to its weakest level since 1982.

"It's telling us there's been a complete collapse in the discretionary areas of the U.S. economy," said MKM Partners chief economist Michael Darda of auto sales. "It's feeding on other business areas as well."

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Also released Monday was the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey showing that banks tightened lending standards dramatically for businesses and consumers, even prime borrowers. Eighty-five percent of banks tightened lending on "commercial and industrial" loans, and 95 percent tightened lending standards for the lines of credit they extend to large and medium sized businesses.

The lack of consumption and the private sector's lack of spending on business equipment "leaves a pretty big hole." Darda said. "The only thing out there working in the other direction is government spending. We got data today showing export demand is collapsing."

"Manufacturing, consumer spending and business spending and now the export side. This has global recession written all over it," said Darda.

He said he is looking for non farm payroll reductions of 200,000 or more, when the October employment report is released Friday. He also expects unemployment to peak at 8.2 percent in the first part of 2010.

Earnings Central

We realize it's early to make any statements about the stock market returning to "normal," but today's action begs the question of whether some of the volatility has been shaken out.

Stocks will be volatile but a little calmer in November after the brutally wild weeks of October.

The presidential election should give the market a bounce in the week ahead, but the focus will quickly shift back to the economy when jobs data is released Friday.

October was the worst month for stocks since 1987. The same volatile month also saw the past week's 10 percent gain, the biggest weekly advance since October 1974.

Traders say the election Tuesday is the key to the week ahead. But they will also be watching to see if credit markets continue to heal. There is also a heavy calendar of economic data, and quarterly earnings from some big names, like Cisco Systems , Walt Disney and Berkshire Hathaway .

"The market generally rallies because the headwind of an election is over and now you have greater certainty," said Dan Clifton, director of policy research at Strategas.

"In the week and day after the 2006 election, the stock market went up fairly significantly," he said.

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Clifton said the market has priced in some of a potential Democratic victory, as Sen. Barack Obama leads in the polls, but not entirely. He said to look for moves in sectors that would be affected by Obama's policies. For instance, the sectoral plays like construction and engineering that might benefit in an Obama Administration are currently beaten down. Health care stocks have been used as a defensive play, but they could see some selling pressure if Obama wins.

"We expect a lot more volatility in the health care space in the next couple of days," he said.

Markets Mayhem

The Dow lost 1,525 points in October , or 14 percent, to 9325. In the past week, it gained back 946 points or 11.3 percent. The S&P 500 lost 16.9 percent or 197 points to 968.75 for the month. In the past week, it rose 91.98, or 10.5 percent. The Nasdaq slumped 17.7 percent or 370 points to 1720 for the month. It was up 10.9 percent in the past week.

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In October, heavy volatility in the currency market drove the dollar 10 percent higher against the euro. It finished the past week at $1.2744 per euro. It also fell 7.4 percent against the yen for the month, but gained 4.1 percent against that currency in the past week.

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The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 1-4/32 for the month to 100-8/32, raising its yield to 3.968 percent. The two-year was yielding 1.572 percent.

Oil saw its biggest monthly drop in the history of exchange traded crude contracts. Oil was down $32.83, or 32.6 percent for the month, at $67.81 per barrel. It gained 5.7 percent in the past week

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The credit markets, the source of much of the stock market's pain, showed signs of life in the past week. Libor, the bank to bank lending rate, continued to decline to more normal levels.

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The Fed's involvement in the commercial paper market helped that market show signs of improvement this past week. The selling tide was also stemmed in emerging markets, where the Fed, IMF and local governments pledged or took action.

"Was it a good week? Absolutely," said Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures Management.

Was October the Bottom?

PNC Wealth Management chief investment strategist Bill Stone said the election will be a positive because it ends a period of uncertainty. He said Friday's jobs data may matter to the market if it's unexpectedly weak.

"Lately, the economic data hasn't seemed to have huge impact. I think maybe if you got a really poor one, you might see some troubles in the market. There's still going to be that eye on the lookout for the worst case scenario — the 'depression watch,'" he said.

Economists expect the loss of 200,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3 percent, from 6.1 percent.

Stone recently did a study comparing consumer confidence and the S&P 500's performance. It showed total returns on the S&P were greater following periods of low confidence (less than 100) than following periods of high confidence. He said the same result was true in one, two, three and five-year periods, and the weaker the confidence reading, the better stock market returns.

In the past week, the Conference Board's consumer confidence reached 38, the worst number ever recorded, and ironically the market had one of its best gains in history that day.

Stone said he did the study to show that the market can turn while news is still bad. "Those people who continue to wait for better news to invest are likely to miss the boat," he said. But Stone said that it's possible the market could return to its lows in November.

"We obviously feel better because we've gotten further and further away from that Oct. 10 low, but they've sold into every rally so far. There's no law that says bottoms or lows have to be tested. We won't know for some time," he said.

Stone said he sees lots of values in the market for investors willing to dip in. He is overweight large cap and recommends sticking to high quality names, because it's unclear how long the credit crunch will last. He likes consumer staples, health care and information technology.

"Whether people decide to buy the value or not, I can't tell you. It's sitting out there waiting, and we know there's tons of money on the sideline, so you've got all the ingredients to start the fire. Whether they decide to strike the match and let it go, I don't know," said Stone, when asked whether stocks would end the year higher.

Econorama

Friday's jobs reports is the big economic headline to watch in the coming week.

Another major read on the economy will be the monthly sales of auto makers, released Monday throughout the day. The results, expected to be the worst in years, are released against a backdrop of efforts by GM and Chrysler to forge a merger.

On Monday, ISM manufacturing data is also released, as is construction spending. Factory orders are reported Tuesday, and ADP's employment report is released Wednesday, as are ISM nonmanufacturing jobs.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims are reported, as are Q3 productivity and unit labor costs. Chain stores report monthly sales that day, and that could be a good preview of what to expect in the coming holiday shopping season.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold rates meetings Thursday. Traders expect rate cuts.

Wholesale trade, consumer credit and pending home sales for September are reported Friday.

Several Fed officials are speaking in the coming week. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on economic challenges at the Texas Cattle Feeders Association at 10:45am CT Tuesday. Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh speaks to the Money Marketeers of New York University Thursday evening at 7pm ET on the promise and peril of the new financial architecture. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks Friday on the economic outlook at 12pm ET in Palm Beach, Fla.

Earnings Central

Energy stocks and consumer brands are among the companies reporting in the week ahead.