Whether consumers are willing to open their wallets is a big theme for Tuesday's markets.
First, Wal-mart's quarterly earnings will be reported in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. The biggest U.S. retailer is expected to have earned $0.75 per share, a gain of 11 percent, on revenues of $93.2 billion, an 8 percent increase. Its forward looking comments will be very important.

Then April's retail sales are reported at 8:30 a.m. and are expected to show a decrease of 0.2 percent.

But Tony Crescenzi of Miller Tabak says there's another, fresher number investors may want to watch for signs of whether the consumer is spending. He said the International Council for Shopping Centers issues a weekly number for chain store sales that should give clues as to whether consumers are spending their stimulus checks.

Data for the week ended May 3 showed a real change in trend, with an increase of 2.3 percent, he said. Last week's number "did match the highs of the year - the week of February 26 and January 1. I think it's part of the optimism in the markets. It's certainly looking better than mid January," he said.

"It's a reasonable expectation to see it move into the 3s," he said.

Certainly some of that optimism about the consumer spilled into Monday's market. Consumer discretionary stocks were the best performing S&P sector, with a gain of 2.08 percent, followed by materials, which were up 1.88 percent.

Crescenzi said the ICSC weekly data closely tracks ISM, and if there's improving manufacturing data this week from the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing index, it may create more optimism. "I think it's going to make people feel better for a little while. Whether it lasts, we'll have to wait and see," he said.

There's even a chance some of the stimulus-related spending could show up in April's retail sales though the number is not expected to be good. Crescenzi said people sometimes "lend" themselves money in anticipation of a check and many may have used credit cards to make purchases ahead of receiving checks.

The boost in retail spending from the $100 million stimulus program could pump some more hope into the market. "It makes for a pretty decent story and part of the reason why we're seeing rallies back. The Vix is at a multi-month low. It's a much calmer environment," said Crescenzi.

Fed Ahead

Also big tomorrow is the speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who speaks to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta financial markets conference in Sea Island, Ga.

Bernanke's topic is Federal Reserve liquidity measures and he speaks at 8:20 a.m. via satellite. Other Fed officials also are speaking at the conference.

Monday closed with word of a potential new merger between Hewlett-Packard and EDS . HP stock slumped but the idea of a big strategic merger could be a boost for other tech stocks in Tuesday's market.

On Monday, the Dow jumped 130, or 1 percent to 12,876, and the Nasdaq was up 42 or 1.8 percent, while the S&P climbed 15 or 1.1 percent to 1403.

The dollar fell 0.35 percent against the euro, after a day of up and down trading. The dollar was up 0.95 percent against the yen.

The 10-year fell, raising its yield to 3.775 percent, and the two-year also sold off, lifting its yield to 2.288 percent.

Gold slipped $0.80 to $883.70 per troy ounce.

Oil lost $1.73 per barrel, or 1.4 percent, falling to $124.23 per barrel. Gasoline fell 1.2 percent to $3.1642 per gallon on the NYMEX. But at the pump, the EIA says U.S. retail gasoline rose $0.109 to $3.722 per gallon.

Dollar Bottom?

There's been increased optimism that the dollar may be ready to bounce. I asked Boris Schlossberg about this as he visited CNBC Monday.

"The fact we are seeing everyone on the same trend, to be dollar bullish so early tells me that maybe it's not the be last gasp of the dollar bears," said Schlossberg, senior currency trader at DailyFx.com.

The move in the dollar after it hit a low of $1.6018 per euro two weeks ago has been "tepid." The more I thought about it, that price action suggests we might have another vicious runup in the euro before it's over," he said. Schlossberg noted the U.S. economy has felt the impact of credit crunch but not necessarily recession and that could come.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

Wall Street is increasingly worried that bubbling over oil prices will scald the economy and the stock market.

That's just one concern for traders in the week ahead which also has inflation data, retail sales and housing numbers. There are earnings reports from Wal-Mart , J.C. Penney and tech giant Hewlett-Packard , and the television networks hold their upfronts for advertisers.

All during the week, the Fed will be out in force, with no fewer than 14 speeches by Fed officials. That includes two from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke himself, on Tuesday and Thursday.

President Bush is visiting the Middle East -- Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He is expected to discuss oil prices and the idea of increased production with Saudi officials.

Shades of... Pets.com?

There was a lot of chatter this past week about the potential for a "super spike" in oil prices, after a Goldman Sachs analyst said crude could go as high as $200 per barrel within the next two years.

Lehman's weekly economic note this week looked at the idea of the "super spike" and concluded that it could happen, but if oil super spikes... it will end up spiking itself.

The note also said the ramp-up in oil prices has the feeling of a bubble building. They likened it to the Internet bubble, when suddenly the rules changed and unknown Internet stocks with no earnings were flying high. (Oil was at $126 per barrel in late trading Friday -- a gain of 8.3 percent for the week and 11.9 percent in just six sessions)

Lehman says while the global economy has withstood several oil price surges in the past five years, it's different this time. First the move is much bigger -- up $60 per barrel in a year -- while the economy is much more vulnerable.

"If oil prices were to rise by another $80 on top of the $30 rise of the past several months, the result would likely be a sharp slowdown in both global growth and energy demand," Lehman economists said in their note.

Complacent? Watch Out

Stocks entered the past week feeling pretty good, but ended on a down note. Citigroup's chief market strategist Tobias Levkovich told me in an interview this week that he's seeing signs that investors are far less fearful -- and that's not entirely a good thing.

One of his models shows investors went from being panicked two months ago to more complacent -- and the change in attitude showed up like a spike in his model.

"One of the things we're getting a little nervous about is a new found complacency," he said. "..We care far more deeply about how investors position themselves around those feelings."

Levkovich says he does not think investors are fully aware of the impact of the credit crunch and the lag effect on business activity.

"We anticipate that companies are going to have to tell people over the next couple of months that business conditions have deteriorated," he said, noting industrial companies that were doing well may start to see a fall-off.

That could bring some bumps to the stock market. "There's far more risk in the industrials/commodity complex, because they're not baking in these slower conditions," he said. Levkovich said he sees the economy in a W-pattern with two legs down and then up.

"We're probably getting to that point where we're nearing the inflection point to go down the other leg of the W," he said.

"In general, we could pull back. We don't have to pull back to levels we saw March 10 but you can't rule it out either," he said. If you follow the W, stocks would then move up again after the move down.

Levkovich said a Citi survey of clients found that investors believe corporate earnings are going to be lower this year, and that their expectations were below those of Wall Street analysts.

"When numbers get cut by sell-side analysts, stocks will have trouble rallying," he said, adding that could be around mid-year.

I asked Levkovich about oil prices, and he said while Wall Street may be fixating on big round numbers of $100, $120, $150 per barrel, the real impact is the price at the pump. He said that for now, the rise has been gradual and has been largely absorbed, but an overnight spike would be different.

"I believe that the surge we see in oil prices has eaten up a huge chunk of the rebate check benefit," he said. He said it could be significant for those who were hoping the rebate check would spur a surge in spending.

One would think, though, that the earnings power of companies and consumers is going to start taking a hit if the trend continues.

Just Friday, FedEx warned again that it was feeling the impact of rising fuel costs. It cut its quarterly earnings forecast from $1.60 to $1.80 to $1.45 to $1.50 per share. It said since it made its fourth-quarter forecast in March, it has seen a $100 million or 7 percent increase in fuel costs. FedEx says it has a dynamic fuel surcharge in place, but it cant keep up with rapidly rising fuel costs. Imagine a super-spike.

The Dow this past week was down 2.4 percent to 12,745, its worst performance since March 7. The S&P 500 pulled back 25 points or 1.8 percent for the week to 1388, and the Nasdaq was off 1.3 percent to 2445. Financials were the worst performers, down more than 6 percent, and the best performer was energy, up 2.9 percent.

The dollar lost 0.4 percent against the euro, ending three weeks of gains. It was at $1.5483 Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.765 percent.

Earnings Central

Earnings this week are expected from Sprint Nextel on Monday; Wal-Mart and Electronic Arts on Tuesday; Deere , Freddie Mac , Macy's and Sony on Wednesday, and Hewlett-Packard, J.C. Penney and Kohl's on Thursday.

Econorama

The coming week's data includes some important numbers: retail sales on Tuesday; CPI on Wednesday and housing starts and pending home sales Friday.

Other data includes Tuesday's NFIB small business survey at 7:30am ET. Import and export prices are also released that day, as are business inventories. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims are reported at 8:30am; the Empire State survey, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and industrial production are also released that morning. Treasury also releases data on international capital flows that day. The National Association of Home Builders survey is released Thursday afternoon. Consumer sentiment is reported at 10am ET Friday.

Fed on Parade

Every time you turn around next week, a Fed official will be beginning or ending a speech. Okay, an exaggeration -- but there are 14, and I probably omitted a few.

There are two big conferences Fed officials will be attending. One is the Atlanta Fed's financial markets conference in Sea Island, Ga., where Bernanke will speak Tuesday at 8:20am. The other is the Chicago Fed's annual conference on bank structure and competition, where Bernanke speaks Thursday at 9:30am on risk management at banking organizations.

Before and after those two speeches, we'll hear from a number of other Fed officials. On Monday, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks in Paris at 4:15am (New York time) and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the outlook at 9:15.

On Tuesday, Pianalto again speaks in Paris; Bernanke speaks in Georgia and Fed Governor Kevin Warsh moderates a panel at the Fed conference in Sea Island, Ga. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser moderates a panel in Georgia at 11am.; San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen speaks on the economy in Vancouver at 1pm; Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoening speaks on he outlook in Oklahoma at 1pm, and Evans speaks at 8pm in Chicago.

Wednesday's speeches include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at a Boston Fed conference at 8:30am. Fed Governor Randall Kroszner speaks on risk management and Basel II in Boston, and Yellen speaks in Tacoma, Washington at 4:40 p.m. on an introduction to the FOMC.

On Thursday, Evans speaks at the Chicago Fed conference at 9:15am ET, then Bernanke speaks at 9:30 and Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin speaks on asset price bubbles in n Philadelphia at 7pm.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

With increasing anxiety, the stock market is looking over its shoulder at the energy markets. Oil briefly topped $126 per barrel today, and as oil trades above $125, we wonder how much these high prices will spread out to affect the consumer, corporate profits, corporate spending and government spending.

Commodities and energy are likely to stay in the driver's seat Friday. Those were the power groups, and the financials were the weaklings again in Thursday's stock market.

Insurer AIG's bad earnings news may keep that trend going. AIG stock fell in the after hours Thursday after it said it lost $7.81 billion for the first quarter, on billions in charges and investment losses. The insurer also said it plans to raise $12.5 billion in new capital. Funny how its stock had been falling in the past two sessions ahead of that earnings (or loss) report.

Another financial stock in the news Friday will be Citigroup which hosts an investor day. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit is expected to detail his vision for Citi and its future as a financial services supermarket.

In Thursday's market, the dollar mostly wobbled as oil continued to bubble higher, setting a new high above $124. Gold rose 1 percent, rice surged and corn hit a new high. The Dow rose 52 points to 12,866; Nasdaq was up 12 and S&P 500 rose 5.

Of the S&P sectors, materials was the best performer, up 2.3, followed by energy, up 1.9 percent. For the week, materials is again a leader, up 3.5 percent and energy stocks are up 3.7 percent. Financials were lower, off 1.2 percent Thursday and down a big 5.4 percent for the week so far.

In economic news Friday, traders are watching the international trade data for March, due at 8:30 a.m.

Red Hot Commodities

Oil's more than 10 percent gusher in recent sessions is taking its toll on investors' psyches, if not stock prices.

"I think high oil prices are at a point where they are close to a tipping point, and they sow the seeds of their own destruction," said Morgan Stanley's David Darst who was at CNBC Thursday for his appearance on "Closing Bell." He said it would be senseless to try to pin point the top, but he says the high prices are at a level where they can cause significant economic impact, and ultimately oil will back down.

Darst, chief investment strategist, Global Wealth Management, said the current momentum trend means investors have to play defense and offense at the same time. He pointed out that the transports, typically hurt by energy, have risen 16 percent since the beginning of the year. He said a decline in energy would help those same stocks.

Darst says he follows the Baltic Dry Freight Index, a kind of mirror for commodities and transportation. The index measures shipping rates for raw materials, excluding energy. The index peaked at 10,000 before declining to 7,500 just before the Bear Stearns rescue. "I've been staggered by how it's recovered to 10,200," he said.

The rise in the index parallels the rising pressure on oil and other commodities and is driven by momentum. "It's like a super tanker," he said. It takes a while to turn around, but the slowdown of the U.S. consumer may ultimately be the brakes, he said.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

Both the variety and volume of stock being sought by short sellers this week has increased significantly, says John Tabacco, CEO of Locatestock.com .

Lehman and Crox remain among the stocks sought most by short sellers, and solar stocks, Canadian Solar and SunPower are in the top 10 on his firm's list. Tabacco also sees large institutional interest in Yahoo, though it is not in the top 10.

Tabacco says volume of stocks sought by shorts at Locatestock.com in the week since last Wednesday averaged 300 million a day, up from an average of 265 million in the month of April.

(What did the shorts want last week? Click to see )

"The list of stocks that are being sought, that are more difficult to find, has increased by about 25 percent in the past week. There could be a few reasons. For one, the market is back to its highs. They see more potential targets that they believe are hyper-inflated right now," he said. "There're more opportunities."

The top five stocks sought in the week ended late yesterday were:

- Dr Pepper Snapple (1.5 million shares sought)

- Crox (1.2 million shares sought)

- Lehman Brothers (1.2 million shares sought)

- General Motors (982,000 shares sought)

- Companhia Vale (873,200 shares sought)

Locatestock.com finds stock for short sellers who are required to have access to the stocks they short. Locatestock is a kind of early warning system for stocks that might become interesting to short sellers.

Tabacco says another stock that there is a great deal of interest in is Arthrocare , which short sellers are willing to pay the highest premium to locate.

Blue Nile also remains in the top 10.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

Retailers' April sales reports could shape early market action Thursday and provide a window on just how the consumer is faring.

Oil pressure continues to rise and is an increasing concern, as crude set yet another record on the NYMEX Wednesday. Oil finished the day at $123.53 per barrel, up $1.69 or 1.4 percent. Oil has risen nearly 10 percent in the last four days and is up 101 percent from a year ago.

Stocks got ripped Wednesday, falling the most since April 11. The Dow was off 206.48 or 1.6 percent to 12,814. The Nasdaq was down 44.82 or 1.7 percent, and the S&P 500 was off 1.8 percent at 1392.57.

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said there were a confluence of factors hitting stocks. "You seem to have exhausted a bit at the top of the trading range. Yesterday's high was exactly the high from Friday, so it's kind of a minor double top so the combination made for a full bear stew," he said.

Concerns about the Countrywide deal reignited some worry about the financials, he said. Plus oil pumping to a new high pressured stocks, as did a late afternoon report on consumer credit which showed credit expanded by $15.3 billion in March, its highest rate in four months and well above the $5.5 billion expected.

"That's suggesting to me that I'm right, and people are taking their credit cards and buying milk and eggs and gas like never before," said Cashin.

Econorama

There's just a few data points expected Thursday. Weekly jobless claims are reported at 8:30 a.m., and a number of 380,000 is expected. Wholesale inventories are reported at 10 a.m. and the consensus is for a rise of 0.6 percent. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have rate meetings in the morning but neither are expected to move on rates.

The drip, drip of rising oil prices could start to wear on stocks, but traders point out that the market has been fairly resilient and is still raring to go higher.

Tuesday's after-the-bell earnings news could be a positive for stocks going into Wednesday's open. Cisco and Disney were both out with better-than-expected numbers though Cisco stock retraced some of its after-hour gains.

Weekly oil inventory data is released at 10:30 a.m. and investors will be watching that data carefully after another record close for crude Tuesday. Oil finished at $121.84 per barrel, a gain of $1.87 or 1.6 percent. Goldman Sachs Tuesday updated its "super spike" forecast, saying oil could go to $150 to $200 in the next six to 24 months.

What to Watch Wednesday

In economic news, productivity and costs are released at 8:30 a.m.. Pending homes sales are due at 10 a.m. and March consumer credit is released at 3 p.m.

Don't be surprised if some of the market's next moves will be to pull back a bit, as investors consider whether stocks are running too fast.

But that said, there are still a lot of investors ready to load and fire when it comes to the stock market -- and there could be some healthy buying in the week ahead.

"The stage is set for a blow-out rally," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisers. Kotok has been fully invested through ETFs and says contracting risk premiums are making equities more attractive. He's already rotated out of energy stocks and into tech.

"My mind is rushing ahead as to when do we bank some of these profits," said Kotok, a CNBC contributor.

Stocks set some important milestones in the past week. The Dow breached 13,000 and finished Friday at 13,058, the highest close of 2008 . The Dow has recovered 11 percent from its March 10 low and is off just 1.6 percent for the year. The S&P 500 gained 1.1 percent for the week, finishing up at 1413, above the magic 1400 level and a short leap from the 1420 some technicians have targeted.

In the week ahead, there is little economic data to consider, but there will be a few big earnings reports. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on mortgages Monday evening, and Sears and Aflac have annual meetings that day.

The presidential primaries in Indiana and North Carolina Tuesday will also be watched carefully. Those two races may or may not end the fist fighting between the Democratic candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Of course, this weekend, Warren Buffett fans will all be glued to CNBC.com's live Warren Buffett blog to watch the proceedings at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting Saturday.

Whither Stocks Longer Term?

There's a view we keep hearing, that stocks may be on the mend for now and draw in a great deal of money. Yet the effects of an economic slowdown could swing around and hit the market like the tail of a scorpion.

I spoke to Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch's chief investment strategist, who made some interesting comments on volatility. Basically, he told me the lull in volatility that we've been noticing is part of the volatility. That makes sense because while it feels good now, some big downdrafts would not come as a surprise if the news takes a turn for the worse.

"A main theme for the year is the underlying trend of volatility would go up, but I was not smart enough to predict the volatility of the volatility. The underlying trend of volatility is still up," he said.

Merrill has been one of the more bearish firms on the street on the economy and was early to call a recession. Bernstein says he thinks investors still need to play defense, though he sees an 8 percent gain in the S&P 500 from March 31, to the end of next March.

"We're much more predicated toward defensive sectors still, staples, some of the health care stocks. We do like some industrials. The two ends of the spectrum that people like to play, we're most cautious on -- financials and commodities and materials," he said.

"We like big old technology stocks, not the kind of sexy consumer-oriented names in tech... We remain big fans of defense stocks. I still think people don't think there's an arms race going on around the world," he said.

Bernstein cautions that some investors are perhaps too ready to declare an end to the impact of the credit crisis.

"It hasn't been a normal boom and bust cycle. It's not a normal recession," he said. Some investors seem to believe the credit crisis will not have a long-term impact on the economy and that it is like the crisis created when hedge fund Long Term Capital imploded in the 1990s.

"Our feeling is that's premature until credit conditions start to ease," Bernstein said.

"...People forget there's the issue of who bought the CDOs and put them on their balance sheets and have to mark them to market. The other side is, who has kept mortgages and consumer loans on their books without securitizing them? That's why our small bank analyst is so negative on small banks."

Bernstein's personal belief is that the market could retest its lows.

"You still want to be very cautious toward the equity market within the concept of okay returns. I think if you're a large-cap, high-quality investor, you'll eke out gains over the next 12 months...you want to be very cautious about getting sucked into things. There are a lot of very short-term momentum players that can turn it around," he said.

Bernstein, by the way, will be a guest host on "Squawk Box" Thursday.

Red Hot or Not?

Stock traders in the past week have been betting that the commodities rally is fading as the dollar strengthens , reversing a trend that juiced commodities prices, commodities-related stocks and stoked inflation fears. The Fed's decision and comments Wednesday triggered a rally based on the belief that it will stop cutting rates and allow the dollar to strengthen.

Kotok says, though, that the trend of rising commodities is not dead, especially in agriculture. "Ag will self-correct too, but in my view, it will take a number of years. We have a confluence of rising demand," he said.

The story for metals is a bit different. Platinum, for example, is experiencing real shortages because of power shortages in South Africa.

"We did not lump them [commodities markets] together, and we dissect them because the concept is 'do you have a trend supported by fundamentals that shifts the demand curve or shifts the supply curve, or do you have a relative price change?' A relative price change is influenced by a speculator," Kotok said.

• Video: Schwab's CEO on Commodities (2 mins 18 secs)

Technical analyst Louise Yamada said on "Power Lunch" Friday that she thinks the upward trend in commodities still has a ways to go. She pointed to the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities.

"You have to remember that, in 2003, the CRB broke a 23-year down trend and embarked on a new structural advancing trend, so it's young," she said. She believes the advance will continue.

Dialing for Dollars

I asked Boris Schlossberg, senior currency trader at DailyFX.com , whether he thinks the dollar has reached a turning point.

"I definitely think this is an intermediate level turn," he said.

Schlossberg said, interestingly, that a sentiment indicator at his firm, based on his clients' views, shows they became extremely euro bullish last week (just when some investors, in hindsight, say the euro was peaking and the dollar troughing). The contrarian indicator has not shown such a strong trend since 2004, he said.

"Whether this is the big turn is very much an open question, because there is still at tremendous amount of structural issues in the U.S. economy and none of those issues is going to go away. They've been shunted aside," said Schlossberg.

He said the dollar's strengthening may just be because the euro is weakening on economic softness in Europe. For the U.S., the consumer is the big risk. "You have this toxic combination of high debt and four dollar a gallon gasoline. That is restrictive in terms of spending," he said.

The dollar gained 1.2 percent against the euro this week, taking it to $1.5413 per euro.

The dollar now is down 5.3 percent against the euro since the start of the year. The 10-year Treasury rose 6/32 points for the week and is yielding 3.845 percent. The two-year fell 1/32, to yield 2.444 percent.

Bonds and Oil

Oil snapped back Friday after dipping earlier in the week. MF Global senior vice president John Kilduff says that a return to highs is likely. Positive economic data, the GDP and a better-than-expected jobs report are supporting a rise in crude even though supplies are building.

In the bond market, the Fed's moves this past week changed the dynamic .

"Treasury yields are up but not dramatically. This whole LIBOR thing is still playing out. The 2-year briefly touched 2.54 percent. That was the highest yield in more than 3-1/2 months," said CNBC's Rick Santelli.

"The best trade in the Treasurys right now is to establish a short in the longer yield bonds, specifically 10- and 30-year bonds. The inflation trade isn't dead. It just got masked by more selling in short maturities, reversing that flight to safety trades from last quarter on the perception the Fed's done easing. That's also part of the selling in the short end," said Santelli.

Econorama

After last week's deluge, there's very little on the economic calendar for the week ahead. But one key source of economic information will be the chain stores' monthly sales reports on Thursday.

The retailers, even more than usual, are an early-warning system of sorts for the government's retail sales data. They also often comment on current conditions and their expectations when they release their reports. The health of the consumer is very key right now in determining how the economy is shaping up.

Also on the calendar next week is ISM non-manufacturing data for April, released at 10am ET Monday. On Wednesday, productivity and costs are released at 8:30am ET and pending home sales are reported at 10am. Weekly jobless claims are reported on Thursday at 8:30am ET and wholesale trade is Thursday at 10. International trade data is reported at 8:30am ET Friday.

For the energy markets, weekly oil and gasoline inventory data is reported Wednesday at 10:30 and natural gas inventories are released Thursday at 10:30am.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on Monday evening at the Columbia Business School's annual dinner on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. He will not take questions from the audience at the 8:30pm ET event in New York. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks in New York Thursday at 12:30 p.m.

Earnings Central

Earnings are really winding down in the week ahead. Anadarko reports Monday. On Tuesday, Cisco , Disney and Fannie Mae report. News Corp. , Transocean and Foster Wheeler report Wednesday; and AIG and Toyota report Thursday.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

April's jobs report could actually bring in more May buyers.

The report is expected to be fairly gloomy, forecast to show a loss of 75,000 non-farm payrolls or more last month. But Thursday's frisky market action could carry through if the report does not show up worse than expected. It sounds odd, but the bad news is already what's expected.

After an initially wishy washy reaction Wednesday, the stock market Thursday embraced the Fed's actions and rallied to closing levels not seen since early January.

The big trade of the day was the reversal of the weak dollar, strong commodities trade which pushed the dollar higher and took the wind out of a wide range of commodities. Oil was one of those, losing 0.8 percent to $112.52. Gold lost 1.6 percent to $848.90 per troy ounce. Copper plunged 5.3 percent to $3.7255 per pound and silver lost 2.3 percent to $16.1210 per troy ounce.

Stocks followed the same pattern - energy and materials were lower and transports higher. Energy stocks were up 2.2 percent, and airlines were up more than 5.6 percent.

The dollar gained a full percent against the euro Thursday and 0.34 against the yen. The Dow meanwhile finished up 189, at 13,010, its first close above 13,000 since Jan. 3 and the S&P closed up 24 at 1409, the first close above the magic 1400 level since Jan. 14.

"I think it's going to be a continued unwind" in commodities, said John O'Donoghue, head of equities at Cowen. "I don't think it's going to be a massive crash. it's an unwind. I think there's a long-term bull market in commodities. I think it just got ahead of itself."

Econorama

In addition to the 8:30 a.m. jobs report, factory orders for March are reported at 10 a.m. Some important earnings news is expected from oil major Chevron. Also reporting are Viacom, Duke Energy, Agrium, and Weyerhaeuser.

Visa and some of the solar stocks are among the names most sought by short sellers this week, according to Locatestock.com.

As of yesterday, the top five stocks sought by shorts this week were as follows:

General Motors
Lehman
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
iShares FTSE/XinhuaChina 25 Index
Visa

There is also interest by short sellers in Canadian Solar and SunPower , and they were in the top 10 stocks being sought this week, says John Tabacco, ceo of Locatestock.com.

Lehman has been a perennial on the list. Tabacco says he's also noticed that XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR is in his company's top 10.

"The GM is very interesting because our customers only come to us when they can't find liquidity from their prime or clearing firm. GM is typically easy to borrow and the fact that it is beginning to show up, as our most active, tells me that the major brokers are no longer viewing GM as easy to borrow," said Tabacco. That means there is more shorting interest building in GM, he said.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com