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Market Insider with Patti Domm

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  Friday, 17 May 2013 | 9:08 PM ET

Bulls Will Drive Market but Bernanke Is Steering

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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke listens during a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC.

Bullish momentum should drive stocks higher in the week ahead as markets watch to see if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke weighs in on whether the economy is strong enough to justify paring back on Fed bond buying any time soon.

The debate about whether and when the Fed should start trimming back on its bond-buying program was underway in markets this past week, and was further fueled by the comments of Fed hawks. It also has made the Fed chairman's economic testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee Wednesday even more important.

"He's got to be a bit of a two-handed economist," said Pimco strategist Tony Crescenzi. "On the one hand, he shows the Fed is concerned about downside risk to growth, and in so doing keeps markets believing the Fed will remain accommodative for a long time, but on the other hand, he has to seem somewhat optimistic about the future because the decision point is getting closer to a taper. Given the rising asset prices and improving employment…he'll say there's been progress."

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  Friday, 17 May 2013 | 11:27 AM ET

Midday Movers: DATA, V, ARUN & More

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Take a look at some of Friday's midday movers:

Tableau Software soared after its IPO. The data software company sold 8.2 million shares at $31 per share raising $254 million.

Visa hit a historic high after a Nomura analyst said the global payments firm justified a P/E multiple of 25-times earnings and raised his price target on the firm to $220 from $187 per share.

»Read more
  Friday, 17 May 2013 | 7:57 AM ET

Early Movers: DELL, JCP, DIS & More

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Check out which companies are making headlines before the bell on Friday.

Applied Materials: The semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker reported fiscal second-quarter profit excluding items of 16 cents per share, beating estimates by three cents. Revenue was also above consensus, with demand for smartphone chips helping offset a decline in personal computer sales.

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 7:33 PM ET

US Bull Market Begins to Show Signs of Wear

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Stocks head into Friday with a 1 percent gain for the week so far, but traders are increasingly seeing signs of wear, particularly as a growing list of disappointing economic reports stacks up against the market's gains.

Friday's data includes consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m. ET, and leading indicators at 10 a.m.

(Watch Now: What Happens When Fed 'Tapers' Down)

Those reports follow on Thursday's Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly jobless claims, and housing starts, all disappointing in some way. Industrial production Wednesday and the Empire state survey were also weaker than expected. The Philadelphia Fed index fell from a positive 1.3 to a contraction of 5.2 in May. Weekly jobless claims increased by a surprising 32,000 to 360,000, and housing starts fell 16.5 percent to 853,000, but permits rose.

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  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 5:08 PM ET

After-Hours Buzz: Dell, JCPenney, Autodesk & More

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Check out which companies are making headlines after the bell Thursday:

Dell - The computer hardware and software company posted earnings of 21 cents a share, excluding one-time items, on sales of $14.07 billion, against expectations for 35 cents a share on sales of $13.50 billion. Shares were largely unchanged in extended-hours trading.

(Read More: Stocks End Lower on Fed's Comments; CSCO Up 13%)

JCPenney - The retailer posted a loss of $1.31 a share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $2.64 billion, missing expectations for a loss of 89 cents a share on sales of $2.74 billion. And the company said first-quarter same-store sales fell 16.6 percent, as previously reported. Shares toggled in and out of positive territory in extended-hours trading.

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 1:35 PM ET

Tesla Earns Quality May Not Matter as Stock Surges

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Source: tesla.com

If there is one lesson that resonates from years of watching markets, it's that earnings quality doesn't matter in cult stocks on the rise. Nobody wants to hear it. Look no further than Netflix. Or even Amazon.

All of which brings us to Tesla. Flying red flags over its earnings quality would appear to be foolhardy.

Still, to ignore it is just as foolhardy, especially given the first sentence of the most recent "shareholder letter" accompanying the fledgling car company's earnings. "Tesla reached profitability in the first quarter of 2013 for the first time in our ten year history," it stated.

Furthermore, lower in the same letter Tesla says: "We believe that the accepted automotive industry approach of focusing on margin improvement,profitability and deliveries are the more meaningful metrics for measuring progress."

If profits matter going forward, so does earnings quality. And according to Gradient Analytics, the earnings quality gets a grade of 'F."

What stands out the most?

"So many things," says Gradient research director Donn Vickrey."By declaring themselves profitable, I said there is just no way. How can this be at this point in the cycle? It has to be purely a paper profit and at that some elements of the paper may be lower quality than usual."

Paper or not, Vickrey believes whatever Tesla's profitability, it isn't sustainable.

Rather than go through all of his points, let's focus on just one: warranty accruals. This is the amount the company puts aside for expected warranty expenses — a non-cash charge that hits earnings as a cost of goods sold. The lower the provision, the less of a hit to earnings.

It's highly subjective, and Tesla current reserves at a rate,relative to sales, in-line with Ford and General Motors. But its warranty is longer than mainstream auto companies and "its product is based on new technology with unproven reliability," according to Gradient's report on Tesla." Of particular concern: The firm's eight-year, 100,000 mile battery warranty could prove to be extremely costly."

But what if the company is so new it simply doesn't know — so uses existing auto companies as a benchmark?

Under accounting rules, Vickrey says, if you don't know what they'll be "they should be higher, not lower."

Put another way: it could be yet another possible hit to earnings.

All in, Gradient estimates that once nonrecurring, unsustainable "and cosmetic" benefits are removed — rather than reporting a profit of $11.3 million, Tesla would've lost $91 million. And that doesn't include a more conservative warranty accrual. The good news, that's better than the $464 million it lost a year earlier — but not "profitable."

And we're not even talking about anything to support the current valuation.


My take: We've seen this before. Cult stocks like this run over any and all skeptics and critics — and Tesla is likely to continue leaving tire marks for the foreseeable future. Earnings quality, or lack thereof, rarely matters at this phase of a growth company's cycle. But Tesla makes such a big point of talking "profitability" that it should.

And what I know is this: investors may not care about earnings quality now, but one day it's likely they will wish they had. This has nothing to do with Tesla the car, and everything to do with Tesla's potential vulnerability with its stock.

P.S.: Tesla the stock is very dear to CEO Elon Musk. According to Tesla's proxy, his option grants are tied heavily to the company's market cap. Onward...

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 4:19 PM ET

No Love: Even Bargain Hunters Don't Like Gold

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Beaten-down gold just can't find any love.

The metal bungee jumped Thursday—first to a sharply lower $1,368, then to a higher low in the mid-$1,380s—as the dollar sold off. Gold ended lower for a sixth day, at $1,386.90 an ounce, a decline of $9.30. But it could drop further, according to analysts.

"I'm not seeing any bargain hunters in there right now, and I don't see any reason why we won't test" test the April lows of $1,321, said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options. "This is a bear market, and normal corrections are commonplace in bear markets," "The fact that gold rallies back $20 off the lows I don't think is signaling anything."

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 7:33 AM ET

Early Movers: WMT, KSS, CSCO & More

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Check out which companies are making headlines before the bell on Thursday:

Wal-Mart — The retailer reported first quarter profit of $1.14 per share, one cent shy of estimates, with its revenues and current quarter guidance also falling short of consensus. A 1.2 percent decline in same-store U.S. sales marked the end of a six-quarter streak of rising sales, with CEO Mike Duke citing "considerable headwinds to topline sales" but also expressing confidence about the longer term.

Kohl's — Kohl's earned 66 cents per share for the first quarter, ten cents above estimates, yet revenues fell short of forecasts. Kohl's did point to better than expected gross margins and expense management during the quarter as positives.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 15 May 2013 | 9:01 PM ET

A Flurry of Fed Speakers Seen Guiding Wall Street

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Thursday's markets will navigate data on jobs, housing and inflation, but traders may be most interested in the words of Fed speakers.

Five Federal Reserve officials will get special attention because the idea of Fed tapering, or dialing back, on its quantitative easing program has been the talk of the street this week.

Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, said traders are looking for answers from the Fed on what it intends, after a Wall Street Journal article this weekend said Fed officials are planning to pare back their purchases gradually. The Fed is currently buying $85 billion in Treasurys and mortgage securities each month, in a program that has been viewed as a positive for stocks and a hedge against economic weakness.

"What I'm looking for at some point, the Fed is going to have to talk about it, not just the tapering – the fact that there are fewer mortgage bonds, fewer Treasury bonds, " Cashin said. The Congressional Budget Office this week said it expects a smaller deficit - $642 billion this year – and traders now expect the Treasury to cut back on its new issuance, resulting in fewer securities pouring into the market.

"They've got to get it out there clearly, and usually what (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke does, is he starts hinting. On Thursday, you're going to see a saloon full of Fed speakers, but this is something you're going to want to reserve for the chairman," he said.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at 3:45 a.m. ET in Milan on the economic outlook, while Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at 7:45 a.m. on the impact of austerity on monetary policy, also in Milan.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks at 9 a.m. at the NABE energy conference in Houston, and Fed Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin speaks on the prospects for recovery at 12:30 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at 2:30 p.m. on the economy in Portland, Ore.

As for Thursday's data, jobless claims will be particularly watched because the improvement in claims has been a bright spot, and is possibly signaling an improving employment picture. Last week, there were 323,000 unemployment claims reported and the four year average is at a five year low. Claims are reported at 8:30 a.m.

"We're at 330,000. We expect the generally good trend to continue. Maybe last week was a little overstated, but we still think things will be good," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.

(Read More: Yoshikami: What Happens After Ben?)

There is also CPI, consumer inflation data and housing starts, both at 8:30 a.m. The Philadelphia Fed survey is released at 10 a.m. There are a few companies of interest reporting earnings, including Wal-Mart and Kohl's ahead of the open. Dell, JC Penney, Nordstrom, Aplied Materials, and Autodesk report after the close.

Stocks Wednesday closed at new highs, after the market got off to a slow start on disappointing industrial production data. But the market was helped by news from a sector that's been helping drive gains – housing. The National Association of Homebuilders sentiment reading rose more than expected in May and sales expectations were at a five-year high.

(Read More: Talk of Fed Tapering Not Spooking Markets Yet)

Feroli raised his forecast for second quarter GDP growth to 2 percent from 1.5 percent this week, after better-than-expected retail sales. "I think you have mixed messages. Manufacturing is in a little bit of a soft patch. Consumers are doing pretty well. Housing hasn't changed much," Feroli said.

A diverse group of stocks helped carry the market higher. Of companies in the S&P 500, 187 stocks reached new highs Wednesday and a number of them were at all-time highs including Wal-Mart, MasterCard, Illinois Tool Works, 3M, Pepsi, Estee Lauder and Blackrock. Some of the defensive sectors were back in the lead with consumer staples and utilities among the top three.

The S&P was up 8 at 1658, and the Dow was up 60 at 15,275.

»Read more
  Thursday, 16 May 2013 | 4:07 PM ET

Fed Tapering Talk Not Yet Spooking Market

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Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Janet Yellen, vice chair of the Federal Reserve

The shrinking federal budget deficit and spotty improvement in the economy has turned talk on Wall Street to the idea that Fed will start planning to "taper" back its bond buying activity.

Wall Street has treated the Fed's quantitative easing progam as a security blanket, and stock investors have seen it as fuel for the market's rise but also as a safety net.

Tapering, or a gradual reduction in the Fed's monthly $85 billion Treasury and mortgage purchases, is expected to be months away. But bond traders are chatting about it more as a reality now, than they were just a few weeks ago when the economy looked a bit worse.

"We're now in an environment where the market can smell the end of QE coming up, or at least a tapering," said Deutsche Bank G-10 currency strategist Alan Ruskin. "They can see a market where bond yields are higher."

»Read more

About Market Insider

Be prepared with Market Insider. Your daily guide to events and trends that drive the financial markets. Whether it’s stocks, foreign exchange, commodities, or bonds, you'll get a distinctive look at the discussion shaping investment decisions as well a wide range of opinion.
  • Patti Domm is CNBC Executive Editor, News, responsible for news coverage of the markets and economy.

  • Greenberg is senior stocks commentator for CNBC appearing throughout business day programming and on CNBC.com.

  • A CNBC reporter since 1990, Pisani reports on Wall Street and the stock market from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Follow him on Twitter @BobPisani.

  • Epperson covers the global energy, metals and commodities markets from the NY Mercantile Exchange for CNBC and CNBC.com.

  • Santelli joined CNBC Business News as an on-air editor in 1999, reporting live from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade.

  • Senior Editor at CNBC, commodity trader in a former life.

  • CNBC Markets Producer

  • Senior Producer at CNBC's Breaking News Desk.

  • Website Producer at CNBC