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CNBC Survey: Wall Street Bullish on September Stocks

Wall Street investment strategists and money managers responding to a CNBC Trillion Dollar Snap Survey today are generally bullish on the stock market for the month of September. After a turbulent July and August, 65% of those responding say we've "seen the bottom of the stock market correction." In our survey on August 17, a smaller majority of 55% thought the worst was over.

Most of those answering our survey today are expecting a good month for stocks. 39% say the benchmark S&P 500 stock index will be up 1% or more, with 13% predicting a spectacular gain of 5% or more. 31% of those responding are expecting the S&P to drop 1% or more, and 30% are forecasting either no change or a slight increase.


Today's Trillion Dollar Survey also shows expectations for a Federal Reserve Fed Funds rate cut are much stronger today than they were just over two weeks ago, which may help explain the bullish stock outlook.

In our August 17 survey, 54% of those responding predicted the Federal Reserve would not cut its Federal Funds target interest rates at or before its meeting on September 18. Now only 20% see no action coming this month, with 74% predicting a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting and another 3% calling for the cut to come before the meeting.

Here are the official results of today's CNBC Trillion Dollar Snap survey:

Have we seen the bottom of the stock market correction?

ResponseToday August 17
Yes65%55%
No35%45%

How do you predict the S&P 500 stock index will perform for the month of September?

Down 5% or more:6%
Down between 4.0% and 4.9%:3%
Down between 3.0% and 3.9%:3%
Down between 2.0% and 2.9%:13%
Down between 1.0% and 1.9%:6%
Down less than 1%:0%
Roughly unchanged:13%
Up less than 1%: 17%
Up between 1.0% and 1.9%:13%
Up between 2.0% and 2.9%: 13%
Up between 3.0% and 3.9%: 0%
Up between 4.0% and 4.9%:0%
Up 5% or more:13%

In light of the nation's weak housing market and turbulent financial markets, over the next three months will U.S. consumers:

Spend at the same rate as in recent years:19%
Pull back spending a little:81%
Pull back spending a lot:0%

In light of the nation's weak housing market and turbulent financial markets, over the next three months will “Wall Street” investment strategists and money managers:

Spend at the same rate as in recent years:42%
Pull back spending a little:52%
Pull back spending a lot:6%

What do you think the Federal Reserve will do about the Fed Funds target rate this month?

No action:20%
Cut 25 basis points before the September meeting:3%
Cut 50 basis points before the September meeting:0%
Cut 25 basis points at the September meeting: 74%
Cut 50 basis points at the September meeting:3%

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

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