Bear Week: Doug Kass
Ever notice bears in September? We’ve already spotted several angry animals and invited them to joins us on Fast Money! Get ready for a series of grizzly showdowns – these bears are about to tangle with the bulls.
On Tuesday a notable bear wrote, despite Wall Street's hope that The Fed will act to strengthen our nation's economy -- "The economic reality will bite."
The author of those words is Doug Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. and he joins the panel for this conversation. Here are excerpts from what was said.
What are your thoughts on September?
“I think people have no understanding about how weak profits are going to be especially in domestic non-financial companies,” says Kass. “And I think we are going to have continued instability in credit supply and the consumer is going to be slowing.”
He adds, “And I expect to see continued weakness in housing until 2009 or 2010 at the earliest. And ultimately the weakness is going to impede business spending and lead to higher unemployment.”
Why do you think non-financial earnings will be weak?
Kass explains that he did a web search for GDP national income accounts and found that, “Domestic non-financial profits were down 1.4% in the second quarter and year over year net cash flows were down 2%...That speaks volumes about our export economy,” he explains.
Where are you situated right now?
“I’m a dedicated short,” says Kass. “I think Countrywide Financial (CFC) could go broke..”
Aren't credit fears the problem for Countrywide?
“Au contraire,” says Kass. “They make crappy loans.. and they borrow short and lend long.”
How about technology – do you still see the sector continuing to grow?
“I think this is one of the great opportunities to short tech,” says Kass. “Financial services account for roughly 22% of IT spending. That’s going to be a disaster over the next 2 years.”
Of all the things you are short, what do you like the most?
“I like to find companies that are challenged from a technological standpoint,” explains Kass. (That’s why) I like Warner Music (WMG) because I think its DVD business is over and the company is debt-laden.”
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Trader disclosure: On Sept, 4, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Najarian Owns (CREE), (HLTH), (PDE); Macke Owns (HAS), (INTC); Finerman Owns (GS), Finerman's Firm Owns (LTD), (WMT); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (HD); Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns Russell 2000 Puts,
Add'l disclosure: Seabreeze Partners LP Is Short The S&P 500, Seabreeze Partners LP Is Short (CFC), Seabreeze Partners LP Is Short (WMG), Macke Owns (DIS)