Rarely does an analyst come out and say exactly what he is thinking...all the more unusual, then, when Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove started this morning's note to clients regarding Goldman Sach's upcoming earnings report by saying: "I am incapable of estimating the firm's short-term earnings results accurately. It is my belief that no analyst has demonstrated this capability."
Well, with that said, Bove went on to note that it is quite possible Goldman will buck the prevailing wisdom and actually beat the estimates: "If there is to be a surprise this quarter, it will be on the upside and it will be due to the high levels of volatility in each of the trading markets the company services. Trading is now more than 61% of company revenues and trading is in part stimulated by market volatility."
Good observation. Goldman's trading desk (including its proprietary trading desk) is legendary for its trading acumen; it’s quite possible they were ahead of the curve on the mid-August volatility.
If only Mr. Bove had the strength of his suspicions: he didn't change his numbers and continues to rate Goldman a Sell.
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