Pressure on Deutsche to Reveal Credit Crunch Impact
Pressure is mounting on Deutsche Bank to reveal the full impact of a global credit crisis on its results after UBS announced a shock third-quarter loss and Citibank said profits were badly hit.
Deutsche's chairman Josef Ackermann has called on banks to come clean about their level of losses to help restore investor confidence but his pleas are now coming back to haunt him.
"The pressure on Deutsche is huge. They have championed transparency and other banks have moved ahead of them and given detailed disclosure on the profit outlook," said a London-based analyst with a U.S. investment bank.
"It's almost inevitable that they come up with something."
Ackermann is due to speak at a Merrill Lynch conference on Wednesday, and investors may be very disappointed if he does not provide a detailed update of the bank's position ahead of third-quarter results due on Oct. 31.
"What people hate most is lack of transparency and uncertainty," said Dirk Becker at Kepler Securities in Frankfurt.
"The CEO (Ackermann) will appear at a conference tomorrow and people will still be talking about Deutsche Bank's third quarter while his rivals can focus on how to move on," he said.
Sources familiar with the situation told Reuters last month that Deutsche's profit may take a hit of up to 1.7 billion euros from write-downs in the value of loans in the wake of the global credit crisis.
Germany's biggest bank has said it is not exposed to further deterioration of the U.S. subprime market but that it did have 29 billion euros ($41.28 billion) of loans to sponsors in leveraged finance.
Deutsche Bank has declined to comment on whether Monday's revelations of losses at other banks would prompt it to say more.
UBS, Citigroup and Credit Suisse -- which also warned it would take a hit in the third quarter -- have seen investors pile back into their shares after the uncertainty over their exposures was lifted by Monday's announcements.
UBS shares were trading 4.3% higher at 67.30 Swiss francs on Tuesday, up from 59.90 francs on Monday, their lowest since January.
Credit Suisse's shares were up 3.4% at 81.40 francs.
Deutsche Bank's shares, although up 1.9% on Tuesday at 92.90 euros, will remain under pressure after steadily drifting down from a year high of 118.25 euros in May.
"The market really wants closure on the extent of possible losses," said David Williams, banking analyst at Fox, Pitt Kelton. "The market wants to draw a line in the sand and say: 'That's it."'
UBS said it would write down a net 4 billion Swiss francs ($3.42 billion) in its fixed-income portfolio and elsewhere, resulting in a third-quarter loss of 600 million to 800 million Swiss francs, its first quarterly loss in nine years.
The Swiss bank also said it would shed 1,500 jobs in its investment bank -- a sharp reversal of its recent build-up.
Credit Suisse also announced its third-quarter results would be "adversely impacted" by the credit market turmoil but said it would remain profitable in the third quarter.
Citigroup's shares finished 2.25% higher on Monday after the world's largest bank by market value said it was expecting a fall of about 60% in third-quarter net income.
Monday's announcement followed concern among some central bankers that financial institutions were dragging their heels in unveiling the full extent of losses from the market turmoil.
"It's surprising, for example, that in the current situation it is taking so long for financial institutions and the regulators themselves to get a precise view of the losses due to investments in securitized credits," European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said.