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  Wednesday, 13 Aug 2008 | 12:22 PM ET

Options Bet on Retail, Multinational Downturn

Options traffic is signaling some bearish expections for retail and multinationals in the coming months, according to one analyst.

Moves in options for S&P retail ETF indicate that traders are looking to protect themselves against a drop in the sector, said Rebecca Darst on CNBC Wednesday.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 13 Aug 2008 | 11:54 AM ET

Video: Anheuser-Busch's Chinese Empire

Posted By: CNBC.com
Bud Reigns in China
The official international beer sponsor of the games is no stranger to the Olympics or China, with Tony Ponturo, Anheuser-Busch VP, global media/sports marketing and CNBC's Darren Rovell

One billion potential guzzlers: Anheuser-Busch, the official international beer sponsor of the Beijing Olympic games, has built stronger partnerships with the Olympics -- and with China.

Tony Ponturo, Anheuser-Busch VP of global media/sports marketing, talks Budweiser and Beijing with CNBC's SportsBiz blogger Darren Rovell.

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The competition:

Molson Coors Brewing

SABMiller

Diageo

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Disclaimer

»Read more
  Wednesday, 13 Aug 2008 | 11:20 AM ET

Recession Buys: 'Wide Moat' Stocks

Posted By: Andrew Fisher

In the grip of a bear market, in the throes of recession, what's the best course of action for an investor? Morningstar's Bill Bergman says it's the best time to buy.

"Historically, it's proven to work, and it makes sense," the stock strategist told CNBC. "During recessions, we have a great deal of productivity improvement, and looking backward, it certainly proved to be a good strategy."

Recommendations:

Even for a contrarian, Lowe's might seem to be an unusual top pick.

"It's squarely in the middle of the cross-hairs," he admitted. "We have a difficult economy -- I don't want to understate that -- but Lowe's is a great operator, committed to customer service, and someone who's going to benefit in the long run from the shakeout that's happening in housing right now."
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Another "Buy" opinion:

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Bergman says his firm favors so-called "wide-moat companies," companies with durable competitive advantages that endure during recessions and are positioned to flourish after they are over.

Companies like Fastenal.

"It's actually near an all-time high, but we still think it's a buy," he said. "It's a company that actually grows during recessions, an industrial supplies distributor that's sensitive to housing and to the conditions in manufacturing."

»Read more
  Wednesday, 13 Aug 2008 | 11:03 AM ET

Gold! Why You Should Buy Now

Posted By: CNBC.com
Gold Demand Hits Global Record
A look at gold spending, with George Milling-Stanley, World Gold Council and David Ratcliffe, Southern Company

Gold demand is soaring. George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold market analysis at World Gold Council, offered CNBC some fun facts about the "6,000-year-old hedge" -- and why he wishes he could buy more of it.

Global investment demand for gold in the second quarter: $3.5 billion, up 29 percent from the same quarter in 2007.

Demand breakdown annually:

- Jewelry: 65 percent, or "2/3 to 3/4" of annual consumption.

- Investment: 13 to 14 percent

- Industrial: 12 percent

- (The remainder: Medical & miscellaneous.)

Milling-Stanley says jewelry provides a dependable floor -- while investment demand determines whether prices will rise or fall going forward.

By nation: India accounts for 25 percent of annual demand; the U.S., Egypt and Vietnam follow.

Gold ETF holdings dropped in April; but recovered in May and June.
(Contd.)

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A Contrarian View:

  • CNBC Video: Gold Decline?

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Price correlations: At the moment, gold is following oil because of the effects on crude of the stronger dollar , Milling-Stanley says. But this is not a mathematical relationship, he says. But the dollar-to-gold connection is "a very, very strong inverse relationship."

As gold is both a commodity and a currency -- and is never totally consumed/used up, unlike most other commodities -- the analyst says it always enjoys offsets, particularly as an alternative to stocks and bonds.

"Gold has been an excellent 6,000-year-old hedge versus inflation and geopolitical tension -- which doesn't seem to be going away. I only wish I could afford to buy more of it," Milling-Stanley said.

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Top gold ETFs:

- SPDR Gold Shares

- iShares COMEX Gold Trust

- Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF

- PowerShares DB Gold

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Disclosures:

Disclosure information was not available for Milling-Stanley.

Disclaimer

»Read more
  Wednesday, 13 Aug 2008 | 9:34 AM ET

3 Stock Picks From Shorts' Clues

Posted By: CNBC.com

One way to pick stocks is to watch short interest for clues. Paul Hickey, Bespoke Investment Group co-founder, told CNBC the buys he's making based on his short-watching method.

First, the strategist said he's sticking with predictions and picks he'd made on July 22 -- when he called for oil prices to sink. Hickey said a bear market for crude would boost Hasbro and Valero.

The toy maker now "is a little overbought, but we still like it. ... And oil is still coming down," so the refiner "should enjoy even better margins."

Recommendations:

Watching short interest, Hickey suggests buying:

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  Tuesday, 12 Aug 2008 | 5:50 PM ET

Video: Dollar Up, Oil Down -- For How Long?

Posted By: CNBC.com
Trading Block
Discussing currencies, energy and the markets, with Boris Schlossberg, GFT Forex; Kevin Ferry, Cronus Futures Management and Kevin Kerr, Research Trader Alert

The dollar is up; commodities and oil prices are down -- but for how long?

Boris Schlossberg at GFT Forex, Kevin Ferry at Cronus Futures Management and Kevin Kerr at Research Trader Alert gave CNBC their insights into currencies, energy and the markets.

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CNBC Intelligence & Tools:

- Where's the Dollar NOW?

Top Gold ETF:

- SPDR Gold Shares ______________________________________

Disclaimer

»Read more
  Tuesday, 12 Aug 2008 | 1:39 PM ET

Contrarian View: Wait For Retail Shares Sell-Off

Posted By: Andrew Fisher

Morgan Keegan's Brad Stephens isn't waiting for the upcoming wave of retailers' earnings to pick his favorite stocks in the sector, but he cautions investors that they might be overpriced -- for the time being.

"Frankly, when we look at this, there's a couple of companies that can beat expectations, but they're priced as such," he told CNBC. "Our view is, take this run-up for four or five days since last Thursday, let the group sell off, and then buy into that."

Recommendations:

So who's he talking about? Not the stores that will be reporting this week.

"It's not going to be pretty," he said. "They gave second-quarter guidance -- that their full-year guidance was predicated on the environment staying the same -- and frankly, since the tax-rebate checks ran out, it's gotten worse. We want to avoid the group a little bit, and buy Ralph Lauren, Warnaco, and Fossil on pullbacks."

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  Tuesday, 12 Aug 2008 | 1:30 PM ET

Stock Picker Likes WalMart -- AND Nordstrom!

Posted By: Andrew Fisher

Brace yourself: Here come the retailers' earnings. With back-to-school sales reportedly lackluster this year, what looks good to the people who look at retail stocks?

Patricia Edwards is managing director at Wentworth, Hauser & Violich.

"I think, for the most part, managements have been pretty smart," she told CNBC. "What we're going to see, though, is who's going to separate the men from the children as far as the retailers are concerned."

So which stocks does she recommend?

Recommendations:

"We believe that WalMart still is in the midst of their turnaround," she said. "People will be trading down there, and we think that's a good holding for the long term."

But size and price are not her only parameters.

"On the other end, we like Nordstrom," she said. "We think they are some of the best retailers out there; they've got some of the best systems, and when the upper-end consumer comes back -- and they will come back first -- they should benefit the most."

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  Tuesday, 12 Aug 2008 | 11:33 AM ET

Video: Dollar May Tumble This Week

Posted By: CNBC.com
Short-Lived Dollar Strength?
The dollar strength could be sustained till the end of this week, notes Jim Vrondas, manager of corporate business at OzForex. He tells CNBC's Christine Tan & Rebecca Meehan what is affecting the trading action in the FX market.

Is King Dollar undead? The strength of the U.S. dollar might only be sustained until the end of this week, says Jim Vrondas, manager of corporate business at OzForex.

Vrondas tells CNBC what is affecting the trading action in the currencies / foreign exchange markets -- and where he thinks the greenback is headed.

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Disclaimer

»Read more
  Tuesday, 12 Aug 2008 | 10:56 AM ET

Stock Picker: Rally Won't Last -- Buy Energy

Posted By: Andrew Fisher

Christopher Zook is very suspicious of this summer's stock-market rally. The chairman and chief investment officer of CAZ Investments thinks it's time to get back into energy stocks, which have been taking a beating recently.

"I do not think that the bottom has been reached," Zook told CNBC. "We may have put in a bottom, but I definitely think this rally's going to falter as we get into the third-quarter earnings and the election."

Recommendations:

His shopping list is heavy on oil-service companies.

"We like the integrateds, we like Chevron; we like the oil-service names, we like Tidewater, we like Transocean, we like Nabors, we think those have tremendous upside," he said.

»Read more

About The Stock Blog

The CNBC Stock Blog is a cross-section of expert opinions and insights from our TV and Web site coverage. This blog includes posts written by and about top analysts and strategists, super-investors and CNBC's own market mavens. You'll find stock picks, news about publicly-traded companies, commodities, hot sectors, ETFs and the latest options action.