The August jobs report spooked the market last month when it came in unexpectedly negative. That’s makes this Friday that much more important for stocks when the September jobs report rolls in. What's the trade to put on Thursday, ahead of these crucial numbers?
Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist, Joe LaVorgna joins the panel for this conversation. Following are excerpts.
What do you expect?
The ADP Employment survey came out a little better than expected says LaVorgna. And as teachers come back on the payroll I think we’re looking at 100,000 new jobs.
Is that priced into the stock market?
I don’t think so, replies Guy Adami.
We have looked at big movements in the market, both treasuries and stocks on employment day, LaVorgna adds. The market reacts for about a half an hour and then it doesn’t matter. It just stops. That’s because the market is forward looking and the employment numbers are backward looking.
He adds, the market could react to the employment number if it’s strong. That could suggest to the Fed it doesn’t have to ease rates. Then, the stock market has to deal with the possibility that the Fed is done.
How do you trade the jobs number?
Jeff Macke suggests investors should take profits in consumer stocks, because if the number is weak, they will get beaten to a pulp.
I think you’re protected more from a weak number than a strong number adds LaVorgna. If it’s low The Fed is more likely to come to the rescue.
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Trader disclosure: On Oct 3, 2007, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Macke Owns (DIS), (HAS), (INTC); Macke Owned (DIS) And (HAS) On 9/10/07; Najarian Owns (BIDU); Najarian Owns (GS) Options; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman Is Short (WYNN); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (KALU); Finerman's Firm Owns (ASD), (BWS), (NYX),(NMX), (BEAS), (PSS), (NVT); Finerman's Firm Owns S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns Russell 2000 Puts