Mark Haines and I spoke with NYSE CEO John Thain this morning about the future of the NYSE floor, what the NYSE will be buying next, and other topics (vide clip below).
Will the NYSE buy the NYMEX? I asked Diego Perfumo, who covers global exchanges for Equity Research Desk. He says the answer is likely yes, and figures the deal could be accretive if the stock price is $85 or so, while below $80 is likely dilutive (currently $83.85). He thinks NYMEX could be bought at $145-$150 ($130 right now). This assumes 1) significant cost savings, 2) sale of the NYMEX building.
Any chance of NYSE buying the London Stock Exchange? The price would be high, but consider what it gains: it would be a knockout punch for many competitors, Perfumo notes. The NASDAQ sold the majority of its 28% stake in the LSE to Borse Dubai.
There's the problem: Borse Dubai, as the stock exchange for the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, is cash rich and an upstart. They could make it difficult for the NYSE to buy the LSE.
Keep an eye on Brazil's Bovespa. It's going public October 26th. Sao Paulo is emerging as one of the Big Five financial centers of the world, along with: New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong (Shanghai could be included as well).
Perfumo tells me that:
1) Brazil is one of the largest economies in the world and is becoming the financial center for Latin America.
2) Bovespa has surpassed the NYSE as the capital raising center for Latin American issuers.
3) There is substantial growth potential in equities as Brazilian mutual funds allocates only 18% to equities and pension funds 33%.
The road show comes to New York October 18th.
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