CNBC Press Releases

DYLAN: I THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO ABOUT THE DOLLAR. DOES ANYBODY HERE THINK WE'RE GOING INTO RECESSION

HUBBARD: NO.

NUSSLE: NO.

DYLAN: HERE?

LAZEAR: NO.

DYLAN: WHEN I HAVE CEO OF FEDEX, CEO OF YRC TRUCKING, CEO OF RYDER COMPANIES SAY I THINK WE'RE GOING INTO RECESSION. REASON THEY SAY THEY DECLINE OF NUMBER OF OBJECTS MOVING FROM POINT A, POINT B. WHAT ARE THEY MISSING?

NUSSLE: WE'VE SEEN, WE'VE SEEN SLOW GROWTH AND A MODERATION OF GROWTH. AT MANY TIMES DURING THE LAST NUMBER OF YEARS BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE GROWTH IS GOING TO STOP AND THAT WE'RE GOING TO ALL OF SUDDEN GO INTO RECESSION. THERE ARE MANY SIGNALS OUT THERE VERY POSITIVE INCLUDING THE MARKET AS A WHOLE. IT CONTINUES TO GROW. I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY WE SHOULD, YOU KNOW, SUGGEST THERE IS GOING TO BE RECESSION WHEN IN FACT ALL OF THE INDICATIONS SUGGESTING THAT GROWTH IS GOING TO CONTINUE. IT MAY NOT AS STRONG BUT THAT'S WHY WE DON'T WANT TO TAKE IT FOR GRANTED AND WE WANT TO MAKE SURE OUR GROWTH POLICIES PUSH THAT FORWARD.

HUBBARD: IF YOU LOOK AT, YOU KNOW INFLATION, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE VERY, VERY LOW, NORMALLY, WHAT, ANTICIPATES A RECESSION IS, INFLATION RISES AND THEN THE FED HAS TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AND THAT CUTS OFF OR RESTRICTS CREDIT. AS A RESULT THERE'S A SLOWDOWN. GOOD NEWS INFLATION IS VERY MUCH UNDER CONTROL. WE BELIEVE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER CONTROL BECAUSE WE HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD. AND THE, OTHER THING WE REALLY LOOK AT ARE JOBS AND THE JOB FRONT IS JUST STRONG. WE GET UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS EVERY THURSDAY. IT'S MOST CONTEMPORANEOUS STATISTIC WE GET. AND THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT WE'RE CREATING MORE JOBS AND JOB ENTRANTS. SO WE BELIEVE THE ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND.

LAZEAR: JUST FOLLOWING UP ON AL, I WAS ALSO GOING TO POINT OUT THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS PROBABLY BEST INDICATOR WHAT'S HAPPENING IN ANY GROWING ECONOMY YOU CAN ALWAYS FIND NEGATIVERS. OBVIOUSLY HOUSING IS NEGATIVE NUMBER NOW.

DYLAN: WE'RE NOT PULLING SOMETHING OF A HAT.

LAZEAR: UNDERSTOOD. WHAT WE ALWAYS LOOK AT WE LOOK AT TWO DIFFERENT THINGS. WE LOOK AT WAGE GROWTH. WAGES DON'T GROW IF DEMAND IS SLACK. IF WAGES ARE GROWING THAT MEANS EMPLOYERS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO GET LABOR. THAT TELLS US THE ECONOMY IS STRONG. SECOND THING WE LOOK AT HOURS OF WORK. IF HOURS OF WORK ARE GROWING OR STABLE THEN WE FEEL THAT THE ECONOMY IS STILL ON TRACK. WHEN YOU START SEEING HOURS DECLINE, THEN YOU START TO WORRY ABOUT IT. WE HAVEN'T SEEN EITHER OF THOSE.

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