Buy Tech, Sell Financial "Plan" Falling Apart
The market is finishing at the lows, three of the last four days. A tough situation, since traders now get unnerved in the last hour, even if the trend is neutral going into the close (as it was today), or even if the trend is up (as it was on Friday, and stocks still fell apart in the last hour).
Still the two trend reversals are clear: 1) the "buy tech, sell financials" trade--which has been astonishingly successful since July--is falling apart, and 2) the yen carry trade, which enabled traders to borrow cheap yen and buy commodities, stocks and bonds all over the world, is also unwinding, with implications for commodity stocks.
What bulls want to hear this week:
1) That JC Penney , Kohls , and Nordstrom , all reporting later this week, are seeing an uptick in sales since the weather turned colder and that they are NOT lowering fourth quarter earnings (the stocks are trading like estimates will be lowered);
2) That Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs CEO, who is speaking at a Merrill Lynch conference tomorrow, will again affirm that they are not taking write-downs on their CDO portfolio.
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