Retailers Expected to Post Stronger November Sales

Despite evidence that shoppers are cutting back this holiday season, retailers are expected to report strong improvement in November sales from the weak results earlier in the fall.

The better same-store sales numbers, due out Thursday, are likely to come from most retail sectors, including the big discount chains like Wal-Mart Stores and Target and high-end stores like Saks. The improvement is a bit of a surprise after widespread reports that shoppers were focused on bargain-hunting and were holding off purchases until items went on sale.

Kathy Willens / AP

"Sales are expected to be a bit better than over the last two months, and about in line with the fiscal year-to-date trends that we’ve seen," said Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Thomson Financial’s same-store sales index is calling for a 3.3% gain in November. If this forecast proves accurate, it would beat the 2.5% increase posted last year at this time. Many analysts expect retailers will be able to outpace this forecast.

Several surveys, including one from ICSC, have shown that consumers flocked to stores on Black Friday hunting for bargains, but are currently in a post-Thanksgiving lull.

Many retail industry watchers are seeing this as a sign that shoppers are more cautious about spending. Still, there are expectations that shopping will pick-up as we reach the middle of the month.

Heading into the holiday, there had been an expectation that sales would be soft. The National Retail Federation was estimating holiday sales would be up a modest 4% to $474.5 billion. That falls short of the 10-year average of 4.8%. If the forecast proves true, it will be the weakest holiday since 2002, when sales rose a meager 1.3%.

Waiting for Last-Minute Deals

According to ICSC, about 22% of U.S. households have completed more than half of their holiday shopping. That's down from last year at this time, when 25% of households had reported their shopping was more than halfway completed. In 2005, 32% of households were nearly done with their shopping by this time.

Many consumers are likely waiting for retailers to slash prices further. This was the finding in a national survey released earlier this week by consumer-behavior marketing firm America’s Research Group.

Britt Beemer, the group's founder and chairman, said consumers are very bargain hungry this year. Although 60 percent of consumers said they had continued to shop for gifts since the Thanksgiving weekend, some 54 percent of those who hadn’t said they were waiting for bigger deals just before Christmas.

Some 23 percent were looking to spend less this year, which is an all-time high since he began conducting his holiday survey.

CONTINUED: Who's Winning

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