Ok, so you have energetically committed to playing this game where the risk is that you have a 95% chance to win (which implies a 5% chance to lose). Great. Now here are the rules….every time you win, I will give you a penny and every time you lose you give me a $1000.

Would you still want to play that game?

Oh, now you are not so sure. Yeah, that is what I thought.

Let me ask you another question, “If you had a 1% chance to win at a game, would you play that game?” Careful….before you rush to say, “No!” think for a second.

I realize that in your heart, mind and gut you want to say, “No! that is a bad game, the odds are bad. I will end up losing a lot more than I would win. I don’t like to lose; therefore I would not play that game.” You are absolutely correct on all of those things except there is one piece missing – and that is how much will you make if you win and how much will you lose if you lose.

What if the rules were as follows: every time you win I will give you $10,000 and every time you lose, you pay me $1. Sounds to me like if we play that game 100 times, with those rules, then you will end up making $10,000 while only losing $99 giving you a net profit of $9901,. Hmmm, not a bad return for having to cope with feeling like a “loser” 99 out of 100 times.

Hopefully now you get my point but just in case, here it is again.

Bad risk is when you just focus on the odds of something happening and then make a decision without the rest of the information. On the other hand, Smart Risk is when you consider the odds as well as the potential payout for winning and for losing.

Bad risk is making a decision on part of the information, while smart risk is making a decision based on all the information.

So if you are afraid to take a risk because of a fear of not being able to make ends meet in the beginning then what you need to do is first, table your fears and emotions for a few minutes and then second, look at your situation objectively, as if you were a scientist studying something for the first time. To help you do this, ask yourself the following four questions:

1) Given my skill set, experience, personality, environment, etc, what are the odds of me being able to successfully build a book of business in this new job?

2) What are the odds of me failing to do this?

3) What is the realistic upside for me if I do it?

4) What is the realistic downside for me if I fail?

In the end, my fearful friends, if the combination of odds and payout is in your favor, then you will be taking “Smart Risk” and as we have today, Smart Risk really isn’t much of a risk at all, is it. Welcome again to the S.C.C. You should be receiving your membership card in the mail any day now – cherish it. I do.

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