The start of the biggest election in 80 years begins Thursday. Not since 1928 has there been an election with neither a sitting president or vice president running.

The polls have the leading candidates in a statistical dead heat. But on Fast Money, we don't follow polls. We follow money. And the money is telling a different story.

According to Intrade, an online prediction market that correctly called each Senate race the past two elections, Obama and Huckabee are clear favorites.

But more important, the smart money is betting on a Democratic sweep, with the Dems taking not only the White House but also the Senate.

What's the trade as America heads to the polls? We find you the green in a blue state romp.

Guy Adami

Regardless of who wins, investors believe defense stocks will be sold-off as the new president begins to pull America out of Iraq. But I don’t think spending on defense will slow down under a new administration says Guy Adami. I’d buy Lockheed

LMT loading...

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

[LMT  Loading...      ()   ]. And in healthcare look at either Merck (MRK) or Pfizer (PFE).

Tim Seymour

Great call on Lockheed says Tim Seymour. Also investors might want to look at Boeing

BA loading...

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

[BA  Loading...      ()   ]. In addition, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) could be in play around election time.

Jon Najarian

I agree with Adami if Hillary Clinton wins the election. But if any other Democrat takes the lead than I think defense sector stocks are a sell.

Also I only think healthcare is a buy if Obama wins.

If you get Edwards look for the automakers to catch some wind. And as a trade I’d short the iShares Emerging Market Index

EEM loading...

Quote  |  Chart  |  News  |  Profile

[EEM  Loading...      ()   ].

Jeff Macke

It’s way too early to predict who is going to win let alone how to trade it!

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Following are the latest results from Intrade:

Democratic Iowa Caucus '08: Chance of Winning
Obama:        52%
Clinton:        39%
Edwards:      25%

Republican Iowa Caucus '08: Chance of Winning
Huckabee:    62%
Romney:    42%
McCain:    3%

'08 Presidential Election Party Winner
Democrats:      60%
Republicans      37%
Independents:    3%

Leading Presidential Candidates: Chances of Winning in '08
Clinton: 40%
Obama: 17%
Giuliani: 12%
Romney: 9%

______________________________________________________
Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! Prefer to keep it between us? You can still send questions and comments to .

Trader disclosure: On Jan 2, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (INTC), (DIS); Jon Najarian Owns (AGU), (CSIQ), (AMZN), (BG), (DE), (DPTR), (GFI), (GS), (GT), (MON), (MOS), (MRO), (POT), (TSO), (UBS), (VLO), (CME), (GM),(UA); Jon Najarian Is Short (KLAC); Seymour Owns (CSCO), (INTC), (BX); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EWT), (TSM), (X), (PKX)

Tools:

PrintEmail

Next Post

Previous PostBack to Main Page

• 

COMMENTS

More Comments

 

« First | « Previous

Next » | Last »

Thank you for joining our discussion. Your comment has been posted.

ADD COMMENTS

Please Sign In or Register to participate.

In order to add a comment you must click here and accept our terms and conditions.

Edit Screen Name

Please sign-in/optin or register to be able to submit comments.

Remaining characters

CNBC welcomes your contribution. Please respect our community and the integrity of its participants. CNBC reserves the right to moderate and approve your comment.

PREVIEW COMMENT

Your comments have not been posted yet.
Please review your submission to make sure you are comfortable with your entry.

Your Comments: