Commodities Gone Wild
What's the trade as oil touches $100 on Wednesday? Commodities “king” Dennis Gartman reveals how he’s playing it.
Dennis Gartman is a strategic investor and author of The Gartman Letter. Following is a synopsis of his main points.
How did they get oil to $100?
As an ex floor trader I can tell you how they did it. Two guys got together and said let’s put $100 on our cards, says Gartman. It was one lot. But I think we will make $100 again in a liquid and deep market.
Is the trade to be long oil?
The charts show the trend line going from the lower left to the upper right, Gartman explains. Yes, I think the trade is to be long oil.
What happened to gold Wednesday?
Oil first, Nigeria second and a weak dollar third, Gartman replies. Those three factors drove gold up $20. And I don’t think gold’s upward trend is going to stop anytime soon. I’m bullish because gold has become the third major currency in the world. It’s the dollar first, the euro second and gold third.
That’s a dangerous trade interjects Guy Adami. Gold is volatile. It’s quite possible you’ll wake-up one morning to find gold down significantly.
True, Gartman says. If investors want to trade gold I recommend buying the streetTRACKS Gold and then buy puts on the mining stocks such as Newmont (NEM) or Barrick (ABX).
How about soft commodities?
Political concerns, dry conditions in Brazil and Argentina and strong demand are driving soft commodities, Gartman says. I’m long soybeans, corn and wheat
If you want to play soft commodities you might consider the The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund, he adds.
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Trader disclosure: On Jan 2, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (INTC), (DIS); Jon Najarian Owns (AGU), (CSIQ), (AMZN), (BG), (DE), (DPTR), (GFI), (GS), (GT), (MON), (MOS), (MRO), (POT), (TSO), (UBS), (VLO), (CME), (GM),(UA); Jon Najarian Is Short (KLAC); Seymour Owns (CSCO), (INTC), (BX); Seygem Asset Management Owns (EWT), (TSM), (X), (PKX); Gartman Owns (DE), (GLD), (GMO), (POT), (ITU), (UNG), (PBR); Gartman Is Short (CEO), (CME), (COH), (HOG), (WFC); CIBC Gartman Index Owns Crude Oil, Gold, Soybeans, Corn, Wheat; CIBC Gartman Index Is Long Grains and long The EUR