Twenty20 - Creating A Future By Design

The forecast for the next few years is for a rocky period followed by a more optimistic outlook from 2015 onwards.

That was the outcome from a breakfast discussion held during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 in Davos looking at possible scenarios to the year 2020.

The event, held in partnership with Infosys, was titled Twenty20: Creating a Future by Design, and saw nearly one hundred of the world’s business leaders forecast possible global scenarios for the next 12 years. Alternatively, they could choose one from a list of Sure Bets and Wildcard scenarios and argue for or against that particular event occurring.

Asked about the importance of scenario planning, Infosys’ CEO Kris Gopalakrishnan, said it was very important to Infosys’ business especially in light of the shaky financial markets the world experienced in the last week of January.

“Even if you look at the events which are happening today, to some extent it is to try and anticipate what might happen, try and reduce the risk of these events happening and our own responses so it is very, very important. And you know, we came out with the theme called Flat World where we talked about what organisations need to do in order to take advantage of globalisation and all that so it is very, very important for us to anticipate and try to create our responses early enough,” he said.

Internationally renowned futurists and scenario planners, Paul Saffo and Peter Schwartz, led the breakfast, which was moderated by CNBC Anchor, Maria Bartiromo.

Peter Schwartz said scenario planning was a very simple idea.

“It is the idea of thinking ahead in terms of the fundamental forces shaping the future and what are the critical uncertainties. We are, in fact, in a time of enormous uncertainty but that is not really new, that has been true for a long time and this is a way of framing that uncertainty, telling a story about tomorrow and seeing if you can live that tomorrow today so you can make better choices. It is not about the future, it’s about today. It’s about what we think about tomorrow so we can make better choices right now.”

The scenarios were distributed among the guests and tables were assigned a particular period to focus on – 2008, 2009, 2010-2013, or 2014-2020.

Paul Saffo encouraged guests to try and step into their assigned year by imagining what the newspaper in that period might have as a headline.

“Separate your hopes and fears about the future from your opinion of what you think will happen. Too often a lot of people write their scenarios based on what they really want to see, on what they really, really don’t want to see,” he said. “Take that part out and try and be as detached as possible and say what’s likely, what could happen.”

This process led to a lively audience discussion with vastly different opinions of what might happen and when. But nobody doubted the importance of looking ahead in order to prepare their business for the future.

Phil Wall, a coach to CEOs, said anyone who was serious about business had to be thinking about the future and asking questions.

“The question we’re asking is within the global war for talent what are the aspirations of the most talented people have that will define where they choose to work. The entire working contract has changed dramatically. The job of employers now is to say ‘how can we persuade you to hang out and serve with us over the long haul’. Those are the questions people like me need to be asking.”





Sadhguru J. Vasudev said an optimistic future depended on doing the right things now.

“The economic disparity in the world is going to grow phenomenally like never before unless we handle the social issues properly which would get hugely emotionalised using religion or national identities, ethnic and other kinds of identities, that could become a huge block in the economic prosperity. Whatever kind of technology and economic prospects we have right now, everything could come to nought if you don’t handle people properly because the haves and have-nots - the distinction is becoming too big,” he said, and added, “the question of right thing doesn’t arise in terms of future because the future is something we have still not figured out but doing the right thing today so that what blossoms tomorrow will be good for us is something we can focus on.”

Dan Shine, of Advanced Micro Devices’ 50x15 project, said he was impressed by a scenario that saw Africa resources used in a renewable way.

“One of the most interesting things came towards the end which was the description of Africa and Africa as a base of actual literally electrical power from a solar and a nuclear sense actually powering Europe. And if you think about that, that is something they’ve actually got, they’ve got land they’ve got sun, and they’ve got the capability of doing that.”




Cameron Sinclair, of Architecture for Humanity, said scenario planning was pivotal to his organisation.

“We look at innovative housing solutions and by 2020 one in three people will be living in unplanned settlements and refugee camps and so we really need to think about the needs of the four billion people who are living in this sort of housing so scenario planning is something which factors into it. And so innovation such as renewable energy, oil consumption plays into those sorts of arenas.”

Saffo said the most compelling thing at the end of the session was that most people thought the next few years were going to be difficult.

“And then from 2015, people see we’re going to go through a tough couple of years and then things will get better.”

Wall said what stood out for him was the level of unpredictability involved.

“As we say there are no facts on the future just assumptions and what we heard and saw today was a huge breadth of possible futures that people are thinking about. It’s not a narrowly defined thing we’re saying almost anything can happen so we need to be ready for it.”

Pankaj Ghemawat, a professor from the IESE business school, and author, said there was much more sense of the possible uncertainties looming ahead.

“I was impressed by the diversity of perspectives on offer as opposed to one train heading in one direction with one clear arrival time at a particular destination.”




Shine said that “hearing other people and getting a sense for how they interpreted the future and what their immediate priorities are when they think about the future” was very helpful for the work he does.

Lenovo’s CEO, Bill Amelio said he was glad to hear people were optimistic in the longer-term despite the short-term pessimism.

“I think it is important for us to at least plan out what some of the key variables are that could affect our business and make sure we are thinking about them in a way that we’re able to predict where we can go and what the various scenarios could be to make sure we can maximise our business.”

Go back to the Twenty20 Homepage.

The above video is a fictional news broadcast from 2015 that explores the impact and implications as the story breaks.

Interactive TimeMap

As part of the Twenty20 project, CNBC has been working with Masters of Business students from a leading international business school to gauge their Sure Bets and Wildcard scenarios to the year 2020.

These young business minds and future leaders will be among the people charged with understanding the challenges that lie ahead within the areas of Healthcare, Environment and Energy, Education, Economic Inclusiveness, and Ethical Governance – and they’ll need to navigate through those changes in a sustainable way.