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Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

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  Tuesday, 13 Oct 2009 | 3:10 AM ET

Betting on Aussie Parity With Dollar? Don't Hold Your Breath

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

The Australian dollar has hit a 14-month high against the U.S dollar, prompting investors to speculate once again, if the currency will reach parity with the greenback. According to historical charts, that outcome is unlikely anytime soon.

The last time we issued an invitation to the Aussie dollar parity party in July 2008 the Aussie collapsed in surprise.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 7 Oct 2009 | 4:02 AM ET

Profiting from Kraft's Takeover Bid for Cadbury: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

US food giant Kraft has been in the spotlight in recent weeks following its $16 billion bid for British chocolate firm Cadbury. For investors holding the company's stock, should they buy, hold, or sell?

Takeovers are more about trading strategies rather than chart analysis. The takeover dance usually has 2 or 3 steps and sometimes more.

The dance starts with the offer from the predator to the target prey. This offer is routinely rejected as far below fair value which is decided by an independent valuation report commissioned by the prey.

»Read more
  Friday, 2 Oct 2009 | 12:20 PM ET

Charting Sony: Game On!

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

When it comes to analyzing charts, distinguishing between coincidences and correlation will always prove to be a challenge.

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  Tuesday, 22 Sep 2009 | 3:05 AM ET

Turbulence Seen for JAL Shares: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Japan Airlines (JAL) has found itself at the center of a bidding war over the last few weeks, with Delta Air Lines and American Airlines among potential suitors fighting to form partnerships with the struggling carrier. With lenders now calling for a more drastic overhaul of JAL's operations, is this a good time to be holding the stock?

»Read more
  Tuesday, 15 Sep 2009 | 8:35 AM ET

HSBC Shows Potential for Recovery: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

My father grew skeptical of banks and what it represented. A man of the soil, he saw wealthy bankers getting filthy rich on farm foreclosures – one of the few industries, which managed to survive and thrive in those terrible times.

When our version of “The Depression” rattled markets in 2008, his insights reminded me it was time to pay closer attention to the banking sector.

What Lehman’s collapse did was essentially separate the banks with strong fundamentals from those that had none.

We used our charts and analyzed one specific bank: Hong Kong listed HSBC.

  • The fatal drop below the long-term support area near 124.
  • The second fatal failure of lower support near 112
  • The pile driver pattern which carried price to 96. This is an important level on the way down, and also on the way back up.
  • The failure to move back above 124 which meant the collapse below the pile driver low of 96 was almost an inevitability.
»Read more
  Tuesday, 8 Sep 2009 | 4:21 AM ET

Gold Will Keep Shining Above $1,000: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Gold glittered on Tuesday as prices rose to their highest levels this year -- futures briefly hit $1,000 while spot prices rose to six-month highs. Will the precious metal continue to shine at this level?


First of all, one needs to understand the behavior of gold prices. Gold attracts more emotional and political attention than any other commodity. Its relationship with portable wealth, money and Government adds a unique character to its behavior.

The well-established resistance level at $1,000 is a psychological resistance barrier and is not related to the supply of gold or the demand for gold. The movement is created by political features that have an impact on currency movements and the U.S. dollar.

  • Gold Futures Hit $1,000 as Investors Seek Refuge
»Read more
  Tuesday, 1 Sep 2009 | 2:28 AM ET

Blog: A Fast Retreat Will Take AIG to $34

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Believe the chart or believe your heart? The rapid breakout with AIG from $14 to $30 set up a flag pattern.

The flag pattern is created with a combination of three features. The first is a flagpole. This develops over 1 to 5 days and includes very large price moves. The combined days rocket above the surrounding price activity and are clearly visible on the chart.

The second feature is a bullish flag. This is created when the price retreats from the peak of the flagpole. The retreat can be defined by two parallel down sloping trend lines. The lines do not converge. Converging lines develop a pennant pattern and it is traded differently. The sides of the flag are parallel and slope downwards. This is a bullish flag pattern. The lower corner of the flag should be no lower than 50 percent of the height of the original flagpole.

The third feature is the price breakout above the upper edge of the flag. This breakout is usually very rapid and powerful.

This pattern is used to calculate price targets. The height of the flagpole is measured and this value is projected upwards from the point where price breaks above the upper edge of the flag. This gives an exact price target, which has a high level of reliability. It’s one of my favorite trading patterns.

»Read more
  Friday, 21 Aug 2009 | 2:04 AM ET

Shanghai Must Hold Above 2,400 to Avoid the Bear

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
The current retreat has some wondering if this is a new bear market. It’s more an application of the Chinese strategy 19: Pulling the Firewood from Beneath the Cauldron. This cools the market back to a sustainable uptrend. »Read more
  Tuesday, 18 Aug 2009 | 12:28 AM ET

BHP’s Messy Chart Is Only for the Bold: Guppy

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
When a sell-off develops there is a surprising lack of support from investors in miner BHP Billiton. »Read more
  Tuesday, 11 Aug 2009 | 3:32 AM ET

How to Ride the IPO Wave

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
The China State Construction Engineering Corp initial public offering was a fast trek to the stars on the first day of its listing last week. The world's largest IPO this year moved into warp drive for 24 hours and then sputtered to a stop. »Read more

About Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.

 

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.

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