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Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

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  Monday, 3 Mar 2014 | 8:40 PM ET

Ukraine tensions boost oil but resistance is strong

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

As months of protests in the Ukraine come to a head following the recent ousting of President Yanukovych and Russia's occupation of Crimea, geopolitical tension has accelerated the rally in Nymex oil prices that started in the week of January 18.

While crude continues to edge higher, with prices touching a five-month high on Monday, charts indicate that this is a short-term rally in the environment of a slow longer-term uptrend, and suggest the upside for the current rally is around $110.

(Read more: US oil ends shy of $105; Ukraine risk feeds rally)

»Read more
  Monday, 24 Feb 2014 | 6:17 PM ET

Standby for a dollar-yen rebound rally

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

As investors continue to question the long-term effectiveness of Abenomics before a sales-tax hike takes effect in April, where the yen's headed is anyone's guess. However, if chart patterns are anything to go by a further weakening of the safe-haven currency is in store.

The yen fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in three weeks early last Tuesday after the Bank of Japan extended three special loan facilities by one year and boosted the maximum amount of the loans – a move the market interpreted as a "mini ease." However, the Japanese currency remains off of recent multi-year lows above 105 per dollar touched in late December.

(Read more: The most important indicator in the world: The yen)

While uncertainty over how investors may react to the April sales-tax hike could keep the yen from weakening further in the short term, charts indicate a test of 110 may be in the cards.

»Read more
  Monday, 17 Feb 2014 | 8:47 PM ET

Reading gold – double bottom or support rebound?

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
AP

Worries about weak economic data in the U.S. and China have seen gold gather pace, with bullion rising to a three-and-a-half month high on Monday after posting its best weekly gain since August last week. However, with sentiment towards the yellow metal mixed following last year's dismal performance charts could provide some guidance.

The NYMEX Gold chart appears to have formed a classic double bottom pattern near $1,180, a level that has been tested three times.

(Read more: Gold's rally may struggle towards $1,350)

However, there are two significant problems with calling this a double-bottom pattern. The first is that double-bottom patterns are found at the end of prolonged downtrends and usually appear near long-term historical lows. Not so with gold; on a monthly chart, the $1,180 level appears in the upper third of the long-term gold uptrend that started near $600 in 2006.

The second problem is that a double bottom usually forms on a historical support level. The historical support level for gold is near $1,150.

»Read more
  Monday, 10 Feb 2014 | 8:44 PM ET

Daily, weekly market charts–how are they different?

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Getty Images

Chart patterns occur in all time frames. The same types of patterns can appear on one-minute charts, daily charts and weekly charts, yet the appearance of a pattern in one time frame does not foreshadow the appearance of the same pattern on a larger time frame.

The head and shoulder pattern we identified on the S&P 500 last week used a daily chart. In this context the head and shoulder pattern usually indicates a short-term pattern; more often than not this is a trend correction rather than a trend change. This was consistent with a technical trend correction of less than 10 percent.

(Read more: Tuesday's trade will be all about Janet Yellen)

The market falls and then rallies. The rally moves higher than the peak of the right shoulder and the uptrend continues.

»Read more
  Monday, 3 Feb 2014 | 11:38 PM ET

As S&P drops, keep an eye on head and shoulders

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

One month into the New Year U.S. stocks look the worse for wear. With the S&P 500 down 5.7 percent year to date, investors are beginning to wonder – should we expect a rebound or is a reversal in trend at hand?

The S&P 500 fell below the much-watched 100-day moving average at 1770 on Monday as weak manufacturing data sparked concerns about slowing momentum in the U.S. economy. The data heightened concerns about Friday's payrolls report, which could play a key role in determining when the Federal Reserve next tapers its asset-purchase program.

(Read more: Markets now fear U.S. economy chilled by more than weather)

»Read more
  Monday, 27 Jan 2014 | 10:57 PM ET

Don’t get down on the Dow, the uptrend is intact

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

U.S. equity markets had a stellar 2013, posting their best performances in years, and while they've gotten off to a lackluster start in New Year not all hope should be lost.

The S&P 500 rose 29.6 percent in 2013, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 26.5 percent, marking their strongest performances since 1997 and 1995, respectively. However, their 2014 performances have been lackluster thus far; as the first month of the New Year draws to a close the S&P 500 is down 3.5 percent, while the DOW is down nearly 4.4 percent. Still, investors should not lose hope.

(Read more: 'Freaking out' about emerging markets may be wrong)

While the DOW's retreat is sudden and large, it is not unexpected. A 10 percent correction in the DOW is consistent with a continuation of the long-term uptrend, and a test of technical support near 15,000 would present a buying opportunity.

»Read more
  Monday, 20 Jan 2014 | 9:28 PM ET

Oil slips into downtrend amid US exports buzz

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Starting in the 1970's the U.S. government prohibited the export of its oil. However, U.S. shale oil reserves have since changed the structure of the oil market and now there is talk that the export ban may be lifted.

The export of U.S. shale oil would change the pricing structure of oil. Investors' expectations for how price activity would develop if the export ban is lifted are already reflected in the weekly NYMEX oil chart.

(Read more: Energy industry voices decry move to export US oil)

»Read more
  Monday, 13 Jan 2014 | 11:18 PM ET

Trend strength to continue on this Asian market play

Posted By: Daryl Guppy

Investors beware: popular market myths should be taken with a grain of salt. One of the most popular myths of 2013 was the flight of capital from Asia and the emerging markets. The facts tell a different story and provide an investment edge.

Here are three market returns from the start of 2013 to mid-January 2014: 32 percent, 29.9 percent and 28.6 percent. These are good returns that come from a surprising mix of markets. Can you guess what they are?

The 32 percent return comes from the S&P 500, the Dow delivered 29.9 percent and the S&P Asia 50 Exchange Traded Fund delivered 28.6 percent. The ETF tracks the top 50 stocks from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Singapore and provides an effective way to trade the performance of these markets.

(Read more: US recovery unlikely this year: Stiglitz)

»Read more
  Monday, 6 Jan 2014 | 11:09 PM ET

After a stellar 2013, expect a NASDAQ pullback

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index.
Getty Images
The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index.

Stocks on Wall Street had an impressive run in 2013 amid a backdrop of ample central bank liquidity, with the NASDAQ rising 38.3 percent for its best year since 2009. However, with the Federal Reserve set to reduce its asset purchases this month investors can't help but question the likelihood of a repeat performance in 2014. Down 1.5 percent in the first few days of the New Year, charts suggest that the NASDAQ may face a pullback, but ultimately the environment remains bullish.

(Read more: Nasdaq pays up for botching Facebook's IPO)

Charts show that the NASDAQ index has a steady and strong uptrend with an up-sloping trading channel. Best seen on a monthly chart, there are three features: the trading channel, potential upside targets and the position of long-term uptrend line A.

The trading channel: Trend lines A and B are the lower and upper edges of the trading channel, respectively. The NASDAQ has moved above the upper edge of the trading channel, thus there is an increased probability of a retreat.

»Read more
  Monday, 9 Dec 2013 | 11:29 PM ET

Euro has sights on $1.40: Charts

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Getty Images

The euro rose to a six-week high against the U.S. dollar on Monday as expectations that the European Central Bank will undertake further stimulus measures continued to fade. Now within sight of a two-year high set in October, charts indicate that a sustainable uptrend is at hand.

The euro/dollar's strong breakout above the middle point of a broad range-trading band in September has continued. Best viewed on a weekly chart display, we can see that the pair's rebound rally since retreating to $1.34 support on November 9 is strong and sustainable, with an upside target near $1.40.

(Read more: Resilient euro just won't be held back)

The trading band's lower support is located near $1.28. While this is not an exact level it has served as a support region and was tested in November 2012, as well as March, May and July of 2013.

»Read more

About Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.

 

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.

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