Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in early 2015 coupled with growth headwinds in Europe have pushed the U.S. dollar index higher.» Read More
The key question facing markets these days is the difference between recession and depression. A recession is an economic slowdown that may last for 6 to 18 months. A depression is an economic pullback that may last from two to four years. We'd rather not have a recession at all but if we have to choose one or the other, I'd rather be recessed than depressed!
In either case, the market moves in anticipation of the event. The market decline develops before the fundamental signs of a recession or depression become evident. The market leads the confirmation of conditions.
The SARS plague was an Asian nightmare that threatened the world. Events in Asia were closely watched to assess their impact on the rest of the world. Its spread, and eventual containment, was measured by thermal imaging devices in airports.
This year brings SARS 2 – Severe American Recession Syndrome. Its heartbeat monitors are the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. We use the monthly S&P 500 chart to measure the temperature and track the recovery.
October hasn't been a very good month for Japan's Nikkei 225 Average. And for those invested in the Nikkei, October has been nothing short of apocalyptic. A quick run through of the stats is enough to send investors screaming for cover.
The allure of gold has never been stronger in today's volatile markets. The precious metal has been glittering over the last few weeks following massive one-thousand-point swings in the stock market, pushing it through $900 an ounce from the mid-$700 level in September. Some market watchers are even calling for a spike to $2,000 in the next six months. It's no wonder the shiny stuff is sometimes called the 'world's crisis commodity'.
Are we there yet? This is the key question and it relates to finding the bottom of the market.
The past week has been filled with one heart-stopping development after another. It reads somewhat like a Hollywood movie trailer ... banks fall, markets surge, bailouts abound.
This week has been one for the record books. Wall Street went into crisis mode when Lehman Brothers failed Sunday evening and declared bankruptcy. This pushed Merrill Lynch into the arms of Bank of America in a takeover that stunned investors.
The Federal Reserve bailout of the distressed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae unleashed a Mac Attack on markets worldwide with around a 3 percent pop Monday. Can the pop turn into a lengthy rally, similar to the rally that occurred after the Bear Stearns bailout? Has this the potential to signal the end of the dreadful run of news and the beginning of a new sustainable uptrend? The short answer -- no. The charts suggests this Mac takeaway is more a burp than a trend changing experience.
Templeton Asset Management's misery index of high inflation and high unemployment has spiked in Thailand.
In one of my past incarnations, I was -- I kid you not -- a gold miner. Yes, I actually worked underground in an Australian goldmine. Since then I have found it much easier, and much more profitable, to mine for gold in the financial markets. Here, gold is a mother lode of opportunity, as indicated by the weekly NYMEX chart.
Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.