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Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

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  Monday, 20 Apr 2015 | 8:23 PM ET

Fear not, the Dow's uptrend remains strong

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
A screen displays news on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Oct. 15, 2014.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
A screen displays news on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Oct. 15, 2014.

A period of consolidation has investors worried that the Dow Jones Industrial Average's long-term uptrend has finally run its course, but charts suggest the uptrend remains strong.

Following last year's 7.5 percent increase the Dow index is up just over one percent year to date. The index has consolidated near 18,225 since early March amid concerns that a stronger U.S. dollar could negatively impact earnings at U.S. multinational firms.

But the weekly chart shows the Dow remains within a well-defined trading channel and exhibits a consolidation pattern consistent with a continuation of the uptrend.

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  Monday, 6 Apr 2015 | 6:45 PM ET

Before oil's next big move, more consolidation

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
The oil storage depot at Indonesian oil company Pertamina in Jakarta
Beawiharta | Reuters
The oil storage depot at Indonesian oil company Pertamina in Jakarta

Nymex oil prices rose over 5 percent on Monday as the framework deal reached on Tehran's nuclear program last week offers little chance for a near-term increase in oil exports, but charts suggest it's too early to expect any meaningful price rise.

The framework reached on Tehran's nuclear program lays the path to the eventual removal of sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports, which have fallen by more than one million barrels per day since sanctions were levied in 2012. But analysts say that an increase in Iranian exports is unlikely to hit the market until 2016, putting a tailwind behind prices.

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  Tuesday, 31 Mar 2015 | 12:04 AM ET

Keep cheering, China stocks to rise further

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Carlos Barria | Reuters

The Shanghai Composite has rallied sharply this year, outperforming its regional peers in the first quarter, and charts suggest further upside is likely.

China's benchmark stock index has risen 17 percent year-to-date, spurred by easing measures from the People's Bank of China and buying among local retail investors. The gains follow last year's stellar performance, but have led some investors to question whether the index has risen too fast.

The Shanghai Composite quickly reached the 3800 target level thatwe projected at the beginning of March. This is above the long-term historical resistance level near 3750, which suggests a high probability that the index will consolidate near the 3750 to 3800 level. This type of pause in the fast uptrend is bullish; it creates the foundation for a continuation of the uptrend.

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  Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 | 6:49 PM ET

False dawn: silver’s rally is not sustainable

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Silver rallied to a one-month high at the end of last week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement led investors to push back bets on the timing of a rate hike, but charts suggest that a sustainable trend is unlikely to develop.

In its policy statement last week the U.S. central bank was more cautious with the language around the timing of a rate hike than markets expected, which sparked a bout of dollar selling. The greenback fell from recent highs against various currencies, while traders plowed into commodities with gold posting its best weekly rise since mid-January, according to Reuters. Silver, meanwhile, touched a one-month high of $16.89 an ounce on Friday.

Widely viewed as a proxy for gold, silver leads gold behavior on the charts by several days, providing a leading indicator.

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  Monday, 2 Mar 2015 | 9:12 PM ET

China stocks may be in long-term uptrend

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
73340967RSXLB004_Stock
China Photos | Getty Images

Worries about slowing economic growth have undercut the momentum that saw China stocks rise over 50 percent last year, but charts suggest that a new long-term uptrend may be at hand.

China's Shanghai stock index posted stellar gains in 2014, outperforming its regional peers amid strong fundamentals and solid valuations. Many investors expected the positive momentum to carry over into the new year, but concerns about the economy undercut that momentum after China posted its lowest annual growth figure in 24 years.

The Shanghai composite is up just over 3 percent year to date after posting a 10 percent technical correction between late January and early February. But charts suggest upward momentum may return amid signs of a rebound.

The 10 percent trend correction created a broad consolidation band between 3060 and 3400, with key resistance levels near 3300 and 3400. The correction behavior has developed inside a seven-week sideways consolidation band that includes frequent strong rally and retreat behavior.

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  Monday, 23 Feb 2015 | 9:17 PM ET

What charts say about the outlook for gold

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
PROSPECTING GOLD
AP

Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data lifted gold prices from a seven-week low on Monday, but charts suggest that investors shouldn't get too excited.

Gold got some reprieve on Monday, rebounding from a seven-week low intraday after data showed U.S. home resales for January declined to a nine-month low. The data are unlikely to dent the overall trend, however; gold posted its fourth consecutive weekly decline last week amid a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year.

Meanwhile, the outlook on charts is bearish.

The weekly gold chart has developed a complex technical pattern with three features: a downtrend line; strong historical support; certain pattern behavior in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.

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  Tuesday, 17 Feb 2015 | 9:45 PM ET

$58 is the magic number for oil bulls

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
The Fawley oil refinery and Hamble oil terminal are seen on January 7, 2015 in Southampton, England.
Getty Images
The Fawley oil refinery and Hamble oil terminal are seen on January 7, 2015 in Southampton, England.

Is the worst over for oil markets? The commodity has managed a 20 percent rebound in the past three weeks, prompting speculation that a rebound is nigh. Technical analysis suggests a consolidation is under way, but a firm uptrend isn't in place yet.

A few weeks ago, the NYMEX oil chart suggested a downside target near $38, and if that support level failed to hold, a second and lower technical target near $26. Neither of these targets was achieved as oil developed a rebound from the low of $44.45 after falling below support near $48.

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  Monday, 9 Feb 2015 | 7:27 PM ET

Trading the yen? You need to look for this

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Torsakarin | iStock / 360 | Getty Images

Fresh stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) boosted the dollar-yen in the final quarter of 2014, but as upward momentum wanes, charts suggest a critical test is at hand.

The dollar-yen briefly rose above 121 in December after the BOJ expanded its stimulus program at the end of October. Coupled with forecasts for a Federal Reserve rate hike mid-year, many investors expected the dollar-yen would continue to rise. But uncertainty about the BOJ's ability to achieve its growth and inflation targets has undercut that momentum. Now, the dollar-yen is testing support.

Seen on a weekly chart, the dollar-yen uptrend moves between well-defined trading bands. The breakout above 109 in November 2014 had a trading band target near 113. This was achieved and the width of the trading band was projected above 113 to set the new target near 117. Using the same calculation method the next upside target near 121, which was achieved in December 2014.

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  Monday, 2 Feb 2015 | 11:43 PM ET

China stocks consolidating, but uptrend still strong

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
Getty Images

The Shanghai composite is among Asia's worst-performing stock indexes in the new year, making 2014's stellar performance seem like the stuff of distant memory, but charts suggest strong support for a continuation of the uptrend.

Chinese stocks were among last year's best performers, with the Shanghai composite rising over 50 percent. But the tide has turned amid slowing growth in the world's largest economy and regulatory concerns. The index is down around 3 percent year-to-date and charts suggest a significant trend consolidation is developing.

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  Monday, 26 Jan 2015 | 7:59 PM ET

Australian dollar faces test of key support

Posted By: Daryl Guppy
144684017SB020_Australian_D
Scott Barbour | Getty Images

A decline in global commodity prices and waning demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner, pushed the Australian dollar to fresh five-and-a-half year lows this week, and now the currency faces a test of key support.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.7870 on Monday, its weakest level since July 2009. It's now testing the technical support level near $0.79; minor falls below this level are consistent with consolidation behavior.

The Aussie became less attractive as a weakening economy and expectations for an eventual Federal Reserve rate hike pushed it below parity with the U.S. dollar in mid-2013. Expectations that the Fed will hike rates in 2015 have since destroyed the carry trade, with the Aussie reverting back to a commodity currency.

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About Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.

 

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.

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